Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

SEGA to Host State of Scottsdale Address

Last week I mentioned that the Ed Phillips is putting together an organization called the "Scottsdale Economic Growth Association."  I pointed out that Scottsdale needs someone who can bring all sides together and that Ed Phillips is likely to be the guy who can do it. 

Things must be going really well because I found out today that SEGA is going to host next week's Scottsdale State of the City Address.  I think the event will be modeled on the Phoenix and Tempe State of the City Addresses.  Here's the brochure  that the Phoenix Chamber sent out when they hosted the Phoenix event.  The Tempe Chamber of Commerce hosts Hugh Hallman's State of the City Address.  Here's the brochure that they use.

The Scottsdale State of the City Address is Thursday the 18th at 5:30 at the Scottsdale Arts Center.   I'm assuming that the speech and reception are free.   I'm sure that Ed Phillips has all the sponsor information and details.  edphillips@cox.net.

A Jihad by any other name....

On Thursday the Republic printed yet another horror story about school tax credits, dutifully followedon Friday morning by yet another hand wringing editorial.  The Republic has been running this one-two combination every couple weeks for the last few months and last December I described the practice as the Republic's "Jihad against school tax credits." 

That prompted this email from Republic Editorial writer Doug MacEachern.

For the record, regarding your reference to an editorial “jihad” (is there a more overworked cliche in the language these days? Just wondering): The Republic recently published a series of editorials recommending changes in the tuition tax-credit law. We explicitly and repeatedly expressed our support for the program, which appears to save the state tax dollars. I urge you go back and read it again. I will assume your mischaracterizations aren’t intentional.

That set me back on my heels.  Wow, could I have been so clueless? Does the Republic actually support the Tuition Tax Credit Program and I have somehow missed it?  Or is it more likely that Doug has simply failed to notice the extent to which the Republic has piled on this issue?

Conveniently the latest Republic article linked to all the previous Republic articles so we have a nice little list--compiled by the Republic itself--to test my theory.  When you read the list, remember that most of the stories are either A 1 above the fold, or B 1 above the fold.  Also notice that the "Investigation" stories are what is called in the business "Enterprise" stories.  In other words, they have no triggering event--the reporter has an opinion and calls a handful of experts to see if they will confirm it.

Then recall that "news" stories on A1 and B1 are supposed to be neutral, while the opinions of the paper are supposed to be confined to the editorial pages.  I assume they still teach that at J school.   Read through the headlines and ask yourself if the news articles are neutral--or if they are simply editorials masking as news. 

Finally, assess for yourself whether Doug is right that the "We explicitly and repeatedly expressed our support for the program..." and then determine if my description of a "Jihad" (trite though it may be) has "mischaracterized" the Republic's coverage.

Here's the list of articles, simply cut and pasted from yesterday article.

Republic Investigations

8/1/09: Tuition-aid benefits wealthy families, raises worry
8/1/09: Tax-credit work raises ethical questions
8/1/09: Expenses hard to track for tax-credit groups
9/6/09: Charter schools tapping into private dollars
9/21/09: Tax-credit program scrutiny often lags in Arizona
10/2/09: Schools under scrutiny for financing private school with taxpayer dollars
10/14/09: 'Republic' analysis: Tuition tax credits drain state money
10/20/09: Private-school tax credits save $8.3 million
10/29/09: Tuition aid for Arizona kids in need not doled out
11/13/09: Arizona may sue tuition groups holding donations
11/15/09: Tuition aid not just to needy
12/13/09: Tuition aid continues to elude needy
12/27/09: Ariz. tuition-credit practices may violate federal tax laws

News Coverage

8/12/09:IRS urged to investigate tuition tax-credit offer
9/1/09:Diocese alters tuition-tax-credit rules for donors
9/22/09: Legislators expected to tighten school-tuition tax-credit rules
10/22/09:Attorneys to ask high court to review Ariz. tuition tax credits
11/17/09:Professor puts savings for state at up to $186 million
11/17/09:Clearer data on scholarships sought
12/11/09:Panel backs only some reforms on private-school tuition law

Republic Editorials

Act now to halt abuses of tuition tax-credit law
Lawmakers must save tuition tax-credit program
Steps to a better tuition law
Law failed to define just who is needy
Earmarking at the core of problem
Lack of detail rotting ideals of program
Legislators put school-choice efforts in peril
Legislators bet IRS won't catch on to shady practice

Speaking of Nobel Prizes...

On Tuesday, I attended the kick off lunch of the Scottsdale Economic Growth Association.  Former State Senator Ed Phillips heads up the group and Scottsdale Mayor Jim Lane was the keynote speaker.  So far that sounds pretty normal but...all six Scottsdale Council Members attended-- together...in the same room...at the same time.  You may recall that there is a certain amount of, shall we say "tension" on the Council so it was great to see them all together. 

Frankly, I think the Scottsdale political and business community is looking for a little detente.  You will recall that the Scottsdale Area Chamber of Commerce got in some hot water by taking sides in the last Council and Mayor race--not only were the contributions arguably illegal, but the chamber backed the losing Mayoral candidate.  Scottsdale has since dropped its Chamber membership and tensions are running high.  To further compound the problem, the Scottsdale Area Chamber has announced that this year it will once again endorse candidates in the upcoming Council election.

If anyone can defuse the situation it would be Ed Phillips.  Ed was in the Senate when I was in the House and we both represented Districts that included Scottsdale.  Ed's a social moderate and fiscal conservative which puts him more in the Libertarian camp.  Under his leadership it's likely that SEGA would push for broad-based economic development--lower taxes, less spending, less regulation, and avoid the incentives race that has been in vogue (with disastrous consequences) for the last decade or so.

Since Ed and I have known each other for nearly 20 years, I offered to help in any way that I could with his initial meeting.  In addition to his media, flying and politics, Ed works as a career coach, so I was confident that he would have a position commensurate with my talents.  So I said "Ed, buddy, you have a fine appreciation for talent and you have known me for 20 years...what can I do to help?"  He responded "name tags---you can type the name tags."

Oh well, I guess he actually does have a pretty good ability to assess talent.  I must say the my decision to go with 46 point Verdana was inspired.  They were the hit of the lunch--OK maybe not.

I'll be interested to see how SEGA grows in the upcoming year.  Send Ed an email. edphillips@cox.net He's looking for Board Level Members and if your company is  looking to plug into Scottsdale without taking sides in the Hatfield/McCoy history, this might be just the place.

I Bet they Have Moose for Dessert...

The Center for Arizona Policy has scored a coup.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, now a Fox News commentator, will headline a Center for Arizona Policy event in Glendale in April.

Palin will be the keynote speaker at a CAP dinner April 24 at the Glendale Renaissance Hotel & Spa, according to CAP President Cathi Herrod. The socially conservative group led the 2008 state ballot measure banning same-sex marriages.

Palin was U.S. Sen. John McCain’s running mate in the 2008 presidential race. She is very popular among conservatives, but is one of the more polarizing figures in American politics.

She also is slated to be in Arizona in March to campaign with McCain as he runs for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate.

Frankly this takes some of the wind out of McCain's sails.  There are plenty people who want to see Palin but don't want to write a check to McCain...and a CAP check is deductible.  It will be interesting to compare the turnout at the two events. 

Gosh, Cathi Herrod must have a lot of influence in order to arrange Palin as a keynote speaker....of course, we already knew that, didn't we?

Gab Fest

The Mainstream Media is starting to notice that Gabby Giffords is in serious trouble.

WASHINGTON - As President Barack Obama and Democratic congressional leaders scramble to find a new message after a string of election defeats, Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords appears increasingly vulnerable for her loyalty to the White House.

Just four months ago, the two-term Democrat looked so secure in her re-election that her district was rated solidly Democratic by the "Cook Political Report," a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes congressional races. Since then, the rating has slipped to "likely Democratic" and then to "leans Democratic."

The latest drop came shortly after Republican state Sen. Jonathan Paton announced he was joining three other GOP candidates to challenge Giffords.

It's funny how elections work.  For example, I guarantee that Giffords runs on a platform of fiscal responsibility--controlling the deficit, lowering taxes.  There's a technical word for that type of campaign strategy..."lying." 

I bet this picture of Gabby and Nancy Pelosi doesn't make it into any of Gabby's brochures...and if it does, the caption will read "Congresswoman Giffords demonstrates her independence by slapping Speaker Pelosi while Giffords' astronaut husband looks on..."

They Don't Call her Nappy for Nothing...

Readers have been asking me why I haven't commented on this picture of Janet sleeping at the SOTU Speech.   I saw the picture on Drudge and frankly, I didn't believe that it was real.  I assumed that she happened to be leaning back and the camera caught her blinking.

Then a reader sent me this link to the Lefty Blog the Huffington Post.

Democrats got quite a quad workout during Barack Obama's State of the Union address on Tuesday night. The speech, lasting under 90 minutes, included number of standing ovations by members of the President's party.

Maybe that was enough to tucker out Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, seen here sitting next to Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel:

Well, I guess that qualifies as an admission against interest.  If the Huffington Post says that Janet was sleeping during the SOTU then it's probably true. 

Frankly that's unbelievable--which is of course, why I didn't believe it--I've never seen someone make as much of a fool of herself on the national stage as Janet has in the last year.

The Road Ahead

It's been two years since I warned that Arizona was on the road to bankruptcy.  People ask me what's going to happen next and I remind them that making accurate predictions is occasionally difficult.  However, you don't pay the big bucks for Espresso Pundit in order to hear me hedge my bets and whine that there are many variables...yada yada yada.  So here it goes. 

My best guess is that the state finally runs out of cash, gimmicks and borrowing capacity on September 30th of this year.  That's the date of a major payment to schools and at our current pace, it seems unlikely that we will be able to make that payment. 

If you want to know what Arizona's future looks like, you might want to take a look at what's happening in Illinois.

While Illinois doesn't have the option of shutting its doors or shedding debts in a bankruptcy reorganization, it seems powerless to avert the practical equivalent. Despite a budget shortfall estimated to be as high as $5.7 billion, state officials haven't shown the political will to either raise taxes or cut spending sufficiently to close the gap.

As a result, fiscal paralysis is spreading through state government. Unpaid bills to suppliers are piling up. State employees, even legislators, are forced to pay their medical bills upfront because some doctors are tired of waiting to be paid by the state. The University of Illinois, owed $400 million, recently instituted furloughs, and there are fears it may not make payroll in March if the shortfall continues.

Without quick corrective action or a sharp economic upturn, Illinois is headed toward a governmental collapse. At some point, unpaid vendors will stop bidding on state contracts, investors will refuse to buy Illinois bonds and state employees will get paid in scrip, as California did last year.

The Best of Both Worlds....

January 31st is on Sunday and that means I have great news. 

First, today is payday.  If the end of the month falls on the weekend, you get paid early. 

The second piece of good news is that your lobbyist disclosure statements aren't due until Monday, because if the due date falls on a Sunday, you can file on the next business day. Awesome.

So if you live check-to-check and tend to procrastinate then this is like the best week ever. 

Soon to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize...

Osama Bin Laden's latest tape contains a warning  about the dangers of global climate change. 

The speech, which included almost no religious rhetoric, could be an attempt by the terror leader to give his message an appeal beyond Islamic militants.

...no religious rhetoric?  I guess the AP means "no religious rhetoric except the faith-based adherence to the doctrine of Global Warming and his attempts to either convert or coerce others to accept that doctrine."

Look Mom, I won the Nobel Prize

Google Alerts provides a great way to keep track of events and people in the news.  I have a ton of alerts set up, so anytime someone mentions Governor Brewer, a member of our Congressional Delegation or one of my top issues, Google emails a link to me.  Naturally I have my own name listed on the alerts; that way I can nuke the bastards respond if I'm mentioned by the media.

Occasionally I get an email with some odd pairings--such as the one that just crossed my screen and  includes my name on Congressman Mitchell's website.  Naturally I was a a bit curious until I followed the link and found that Mitchell had posted a copy of the Capital Times "10 Most Influential Arizonans of the Decade list."

You may recall that the Arizona Capitol Times compiled a list of the 10 most influential Arizonans of the last decade.  Naturally the list included Governor Napolitano and John McCain.  It also included Congressmen Kolbe and Mitchell and then there were a few names that probably caught some folks by surprise...like mine. 

I was going to blog about it, but I wasn't sure if the public would believe that I really deserved to be named one of the 10 most influential Arizonans of the Decade and I didn't want to embarrass myself.  Of course after predicting that Avatar would bomb, how much more embarrassed can I get?

So I decided to ask an independent expert to determine if I should link to the article.  I called my mom and asked her if I should mention the article.   She responded that I "totally deserved it." and that I should "go for it".  There you go--independent confirmation. 

So I was going to mention the article, but I got cold feet because I knew that someone would use the comment section to compare it to Obama's Nobel Prize.  

But then Mitchell put the article on his website, so I figured what the heck.  In the spirit of bipartisanship, I present the list of the 10 most influential Arizonans of the Decade as quoted by Harry Mitchell.

Must Have Been A Helluva View...

CBS News is reporting that the total cost of the Congressional junket to Copenhagen was over $1,000,000.  You will recall that Arizona Congresswoman Gabby Giffords attended the conference with her astronaut husband Mark Kelly. 

The most interesting factoid in the CBS story is that the Room and per diem cost $2,200---Per NIGHT. 

The funniest quote in the story was California Rep. Henry Waxman who justified the expense by saying the trip wasn't very fun...That's because it was so bitterly cold.  Seriously, I couldn't possibly make this stuff up.

Meanwhile, Giffords continues to ignore her blatant conflict of interest by overseeing bills that directly affect her husband.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, an Arizona Democrat who heads a key subcommittee, has blasted the notion of shifting money to outsource transporting astronauts to the international space station. Unless Congress makes the NASA budget a higher priority, Rep. Giffords said during a hearing last month, there won't be enough money for robust manned exploration efforts of any kind and U.S. human space flight could be "on hold for the foreseeable future."

Gifford's claims that it's OK for her to shill for NASA because her husband isn't actually EMPLOYED by NASA, he on long term ASSIGNMENT to NASA...

The real answer of course is that NASA is GOOD and Democrats are GOOD, so there's not really a conflict when she lobbies on behalf of her husband's employer, because, after all, they are all GOOD.  Now if her husband worked for Mobile Oil, or if she was a Republican, that would be BAD and hence an conflict. 

Why Did She Do It and What does it Mean?

Interesting post on Slate about the Cindy McCain ad...

I am trying to decide what exactly is so disturbing about this Cindy McCain ad against Proposition 8. Is it those dead drug-addict eyes? The strategic placement of the tape to hide any frown lines? The sanitarium background? The anorexic fade into nothingness? In my mind I imagine the whole thing as a protest not against banning gay marriage but against her husband who...