The Salmon Run

The Business Journal is reporting that Matt Salmon is considering running against Harry Mitchell.

Salmon said Thursday he is considering moving into Mitchell's congressional district to run against the Democratic freshman. Salmon currently lives in Mesa but said he has roots within Scottsdale/Tempe district.

The Republican previously represented parts of the district when he served in Congress from 1995 to 2001. Arizona congressional district lines were redrawn in 2001, creating the current fifth congressional district that includes closer-in eastern suburbs of Phoenix. Salmon said his parents live in Mitchell's district.

I'm sure that Mitchell's camp will view Salmon's run like the Salmon run pictured above, but I wouldn't be so sure.  Salmon has good relations with the party faithful and he has access to plenty of DC money.  After all, nothing says "electability" like being a former Congressman.  Of course the words "moving into the district" don't sound good.  But folks forget how far Salmon's old district used to extend into Phoenix.  I live in Arcadia and Mitchell is my Congressman now, but Salmon was my Congressman from 1994 to 2000. 

The article goes on to list Michelle Reagan and Hugh Hallman as possible opponents.  I've mentioned them before and I think that Reagan would be especially formidable.  She's got a great name and it would be hard to portray her as a bully.  Plenty of folks sent me emails to say that they didn't think a pro-choice moderate could get through the primary.  Of course, if she's running against 3 or 4 middle aged conservative white guys, it's going to get easier.

Speaking of middle aged conservative white guys, here's a name for you (and it's a long one)--Schweikert.  I left Schweikert's name off my original list because I assumed he would want to serve a second term as Maricopa County Treasurer.  I assumed he would get re-elected in 2008 and then plan to make a run at the new seat that Arizona is going to get in 2012.  However, I think he's at least considering a run. 

Actually, Schweikert has been running for that seat since high school.  He represented North Scottsdale and Fountain Hills in the Legislature and he ran against Hayworth for the seat in 1994.  He ran an impressive race for County Treasurer in 2004, and he has the best grassroots Rolodex that I've ever seen. 

Mitchell is going to be a tough candidate.  The Democrats are going to give him an opportunity to shine.  Political junkies will recall that after the 1980 redistricting, Jim McNulty and Jim Kolbe ran for the new seat that became District 8.  The Democrats in Congress wanted to protect McNulty so badly that they let him run a bill that President Reagan vetoed and then Congress overrode the veto.  McNulty may still hold the record as the only freshman who sponsored a bill that overrode a veto.  But Kolbe defeated McNulty the next year and then held the seat for 22 years. 

Arizona has plenty of examples of one-term fluke Democratic Congressmen.  Mitchell may join Jim McNulty, Karen English and Sam Coppersmith as part of the one-termer club. 

Comments

[garry]

Great post but you left out Tom Liddy. He ran for Congress in 2000 and is on the radio every day. A member of the media with name ID seems to be a familar refrain in our state (JD was not the first, Jack Williams was a radio host before he was Governor).

[BobH]

To go way back, I believe Howard Pyle (governor in the early 50s) was a radio guy.

[The Klute]

Man, if God answers prayers, it'll be Salmon.

But if I were Salmon's opponents, I would just go to potential donors and play Salmon's idiotic "fantasyland" comment on a loop and just smile.

[Ron Friesen]

Well, by looking at the list we know who isn't running for Governor for awhile. Or is it a matter of just keeping your name in the press for two years and then announcing for the 9th Floor?

Call me a cynic on the last point.

[Salmon Man Fan]

Matt Salmon would be the best person to run against Mitchell. The old CD1 that Salmon represented covers 2/3rd's of the current CD5, plus he'd have a better chance at rasing the money needed to take on Mitchell. I cannot think of anyone else who has those advantages out there to take up this challenge. I will say that I do like David Schweikert( being the tax collector does make some enemies - no, I am not one of them ), but Salmon would have a better shot at winning this race in 2008. Liddy... can you say G. Gordon? Fair or not, many do make that association. Didn't we see that old move back in 2000 for the old CD1? I'd put my money on Salmon for this one, all the way.

[Travis]

To whomever runs against Harry: Do not discount the Mitchell Machine. It's not really Harry that is the threat, it's his Kool-Aide drinking campaign orcs who will stop at nothing when it comes to campaigning. They will steal, lie, threaten and be relentless. Every campaign, every administration that Harry has headed is full of corruption, but Harry seems to keep bright and shiny. The recent big money payout from the City of Tempe to the Hispanic workers was a result of neglect and rampant racism that went on during Mitchell's and his friend and succcessor, Neil Guiliano's reign. Obviously, when he can bid the firefighters to steal signs and there are no consequences, he can start to feel bullet-proof. It left one speechless during the campaign when the Mitchell campaign tried to paint Hayworth as corrupt when Mitchell is the one with the record. It would be fantastic if the firefighter unions, who are the muscle of the Democrat party, (who do you think puts up every sign and pounds every poll) would wake up and see the mess they are a part of. Lest anyone forget, Harry wasn't out stealing the signs, it was the firefighters who worked for him. In the last election, firefighters working for Napolitano and Pederson were caught stealing the polls of Republican candidates while they were picking up Democrat signs and polls. The firefighters were directed to take down Democrat signs and polls, but only take the polls of the Republicans. Anyone doubting this can check the Tempe police reports for Election night this year. Every conservative constituent in CD5 needs to keep a constant drum beat of the corruptioin of the Mitchell Machine until something sticks. Write to the papers, write Harry, tell your friends, get involved and don't get caught flat footed next election.

[Alexander]

Where's the mention for Laura Knaperek? She won more precincts in D17 than Jon Kyl. If you would throw the rest of CD5 in the mix, she could be very formidable. Many people in her district are shocked that she lost. They could be motivated to work hard in the next election knowing that she could represent them again. She has a terrfic reputation for constituent service, she's a tough tax cutter and she's pro-life, unlike Regan. With the time between now and the election, she could be ready to take Mitchell down.

[Craig]

Alexander:

There's a rumor that Knaperek is moving to CA because her husband works there; even if she stays here, though, she's now lost 2 elections in LD17. Combine that with zero name recognition in LD8 and the rest of CD5, and she'll have a lot of trouble gathering support for a Congressional run.

[walter]

Salmon is lazy and was horrible as state chair. Adding carpet-bagger ought to seal up the nomination.

Mitchell is vulnerable in a lot of ways. Let's hope the Dems keep up the mantra that Harry can have whatever he wants because they want him to keep the seat(recall "Transition Team" coordinator Sam Coppersmith got that ball rolling). He wanted to be on Transportation and Infrastructure? Is he going to try to ram light rail down Scottsdale's throat? What's he going to do with the freeway through Ahwatukee -- is he going to keep the campaign promise he made (that could be solved with one phone call to JaNo) that will divide an area that he won?

You also need to add Don Stapely, Jeff Hatch-Miller and Rich Romley to your list of conservative, middle-age white guys. And the venerable Collette Rosatti is making noise for a run (there's someone who could win the primary and get beat by 20 points....)

[Baxter]

Craig, You are either a nitwit, very young, or you just moved to town. Either way, stop spreading rumors about things you do not know about and get a life. Laura Knaperek is not moving to California. And, she does have name recognition in other parts of CD5. She represented the former D27 for 8 years, was on the Kyrene School Board, wrote a column for the East Valley Trib for 2 years, and raised kids in the area for over 20 years. The former D27 covered a good voting chunk of South Tempe, Ahwatukee and some Chandler as does the Kyrene School District. The real question is, will she run?