Say Cheese

If you want to see where the newspaper industry will be in five years, look at the film industry now. 

On the eve of Kodak's big investors meeting in New York City, a new report out of Britain says the photo giant may get rid of it's film business completely.

Kodak anounced last week that it was laying off over 25,000 workers.  This week it added another 3,000 to the list.  Kodak has 80% fewer employees than it did in the 1980s. 

Digital cameras have made film obsolete in the same way that the internet has made newspapers obsolete.  People are taking more pictures than ever, they just aren't using film.  Likewise, people are still reading about politics, sports and entertainment, placing classified ads and attending movies, but they don't use newspapers to accomplish these tasks.

You may have seen the news that the world's oldest newspaper is going digital.

The newspaper, founded in 1645 by Sweden's Queen Kristina, became a Web-only publication on Jan. 1. It's a fate, many ink-stained writers and readers fear, that may await many of the world's most venerable journals.

Of course you saw it.  It was on Drudge.  More people read Drudge than read the New York Times.  And speaking of the Times, you probably saw this on Drudge too. The New York Times is collapsing faster than Kodak. 

New York Times owner, chairman and publisher Arthur Sulzberger says he doesn't know and doesn't care whether he'll still be printing the paper in five years.

The New York Times is conceding that the physical distribution model is over.  The Arizona Republic can't be far behind.  After all, the Phoenix metro area expands every day and the Republic circulation shrinks everyday, eventually there will be a cross over point that makes the distribution system unprofitable.  Or, I should say, even more unprofitable.  The Republic's switch to cheaper paper has been a disaster.  The quality is awful; you have to put weights on the corners in order to read the dang thing and it's gumming up the presses. 

Newpapermen will argue that Kodak collapsed because no one uses their product.  They still take pictures, but they don't use film.  They argue that readers may no longer want the print edition, but they still want news and someone has to collect it.  Reporters will have jobs but their product will appear in on the website.  Fair enough. 

But if you were starting an On-line newspaper, would you build a big building downtown an hire thousands of people?  Of course not.  On-line readers don't care if everyone works in the same building.  The entire structure of the news industry was designed to create a physical product.  That product is gone and there is no reason to believe that the structure will convert to the net.  Contrary to what the newspaper men will tell you, the reporter's job will undergo as much change as the industry itself. 

Here's a great example.  The Republic moved Dan Nowicki to the McCain beat.  That's great.  But I noticed this interesting blurb on a blog called Powerline.

Phil Boas has accorded us the honor of breaking the news to the blogging world that the Arizona Republic (of which Phil is the deputy editorial page editor) has rolled out the new blog McCain Central. The site is now covering Senator McCain's run for the White House 24/7. It’s written by national reporter Dan Nowicki, who will be going on the road with Senator McCain when the campaign heats up.

Why would the Republic's Editorial Page Editor plug the Republic's blog on a blog called Powerline?  Because Phil Boas is a genius.  Boas gets it. It may seem odd to you that Boas is promoting the Republic's new website on a blog, but Powerline has many more readers and much more influence than the Republic.  Boas scored a serious coup by getting the guys from Powerline to promote McCain Central.  Oh yeah, by the way, Powerline is written by three guys...in their spare time. 

That's the model.     The internet reader doesn't care if his next click takes him to an author from the same company; he doesn't care if the next writer is in the same building or the same country.   The Newspapers of the future will eventually be crafted by thousands of authors and you will simply bookmark them as favorites, or find an agregator like Drudge or Instapundit.

That's what journalist of the future will look like.   Like the guys from Powerline, future authors will be more talented than typical journalists, and they will work for free.  Future readers will create custom newspapers by picking and choosing from their favorite sites. 

Kodak is done.  It's business model was geared to offer a product that no longer exists.  The company tried to convert its work force to provide a new type of product but the structures were inherently diferent.  There is no such thing as a film expert anymore, and a film expert doesn't become a digital camera expert simply becuase both products involve pictures.

The newspaper industry is coming right behind.  There is no inherent advantage to the monolithic, 1,000 employee, downtown newspaper.  There's no need for editors when the audience can self select its own content.  There is no need for a cadre of professional journalists when more qualified authors are stepping in for free. 

The disapearance of newsprint is inevitable and foreseeable.  The disappearance of the professional journalist is more difficult to foresee, but it's just as inevitable.   Just ask someone who used to work at Kodak. 

Comments

[RonH]

I have been having a debate with the folks over at Editor & Publisher about this same issue. They are, of course, fully cognizant of the gradual demise of their industry. The denial one sees from some borders on the humorous. As to the fate of "professional journalists", I simply view them in the same vein as "wheelwrights". As the covered wagon disappeared from the landscape so did those whose fortunes were tied to that mode of transportation. Journalists will be just as antiquated.

I think one of the major effects we will witness from this evolutionary trend will be the effect on the major Journalism Schools in America. If there is little to no need for the skills you teach, where does one turn for students to occupy the desks?

Interesting times ahead. Hang on , it's going to be a bumpy ride for some.

[Steve Meissner]

I agree with the point that journalism is in for a "bumpy ride," but predictions that the news business is dead are obviously premature.

Yes, fewer and fewer readers will look for their news in their driveway; and yes, there will be good writers, like the author of this blog, Ted Prezelski of Rum Romanism and Rebellion, and others who post on their own blogs for free and out of love for the written word.

But TV news never killed off newspapers or radio, and the internet won't kill off journalism as a whole.

My prediction, for what it's worth, is a world in which excellent writers/columnists (and I'll "grudgingly" include Matt Drudge) will establish their own brand-name, and much like syndicated columnists they will establish blogs that draw readers and turn a profit from advertisers who want a piece of their attention-span - in other words, the same economic model that currently supports the dead-tree newspaper industry.

And the journalism industry that will emerge - is already emerging - will be similar to the Jeffersonian concept of a "marketplace of ideas" in which you can pick and choose from Drudge or Daily Kos, Limbaugh or Dr. Mike Newcomb, Ted Prezelski or Greg Patterson.

Remember, neither the First Amendment nor the Federalist Papers ever talked about objectivity. They only talked about freedom to state your piece, and let the best argument decide.

[Karen of Scottsdale]

I get all of my news off the Internet, but what about my neighbors? They don't even own a computer.

[RonH]

Steve,
You may be right in your view. Time will tell. I know more and more my age who have come to distrust the electronic journalist on TV. Now those folks are gradually becoming computerized and watch less and less TV for the informantion/news they seek. It's great to have a smorgasboard of choices and not be relegated to that which some individual feels they think is in your best interest. Since it is all driven by bottom-line business principles, print media, television news, and the World Wide Web will all be subject to the vagaries of the marketplace. As mentioned in the article, Kodak and I'll include another giant of the times Polaroid, didn't suddenly wake up and realize that their product had become obsolete, they saw it coming but were unable to alter the coarse for obvious reasons. I still think we will see a similar fate befall both print and electronic "journalism".

[abc122@gmail.com]

Greg,

The best post I've seen about the newspaper business' looming fate.

[Ron]

What business are you in?

That was Peter Drucker's favorite question of any organization (profit or non-profit).

Railroads thought they were in the railroad business instead of the transportation business.

If newspapers think they are in the newspaper business instead of the information business, they need only look back to the story of the railroads to predict their future.

[Amoke]

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