In less than a week, speculation about Renzi has evolved from "can he get re-elected"? to "Can he finish his term?" The conventional wisdom is that the answer to both questions is a resounding "no." (Ted Prezelski is speculating that Renzi may be gone by Friday.)
The names of potential challengers surfaced immediately--Bennett and O'Halleran on the Republican side and Kirkpatrick and Owens on the Democratic side. With events progressing as fast as they are, candidates are now being evaluated for their organization, access to capital and decisiveness. (If Renzi steps down, he will be replaced in a special election. Appointments can be made to fill Senate vacancies, but not House vacancies.)
On the Republican side, I would give the edge to Bennett. He's probably stronger than O'Halleran in a head-to-head match up; he has a more solid base and the credibility of being a former Senate President. O'Halleran would have to resign to run which would be a significant initial hurdle.
One Republican wild card would be Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes. She's from Prescott and has won two statewide elections. She would also have to resign to run and getting through the primary would be a challenge but she would be well positioned for the general. If Mayes gets into the race, O'Halleran is toast. They are both moderates and I think she has more appeal to the moderate wing than he does. I don't see any way that he could beat her in the primary and if they both run against Bennett, he is assured the nomination. Gosh, moderates spliting the primary vote in a swing district and handing the nomination to a conservative who gets pounded by a strong Democrat. That's beginning to sound like a pattern.
On the Democratic side, I'm frankly without a clue, but that has never stopped me from speculating. So I'll give you my thoughts and then we can wade through the comments and see if we get any insight. I would lean toward Steve Owens. He's run a Congressional campaign before (but not in this district) and as Al Gore's former Chief of Staff, he has tremendous Washington connections and access to capital. I don't think Owens lives in the District, but frankly, that didn't stop Renzi.
Owens' opportunity cost isn't as high as Kirkpatrick's because she would have to resign to run, but he could simply step away from DEQ for a while. If he loses, he could go back to DEQ, or practice at one of the big firms.
How about Bennett v. Owens? After the thumping that Republicans took in November, it would be difficult for me not to admit that a Republican would have an uphill battle in the race.
Mike Caccioppoli!
I'm going to have to redo my banner *again*, aren't I? Geez.
Posted by: JaneAZ | April 25, 2007 at 10:49 PM
Well, hopefully (for our side, the Dems), we'll get a candidate who, if they win, won't take the Navajo for granted and will do as good a job as Renzi did in making inroads into that community. Renzi may or may not be a crook, but he sure knew how to treat the Native Americans in his district. If the Dems do not ignore that constituency and take it for granted, they could hold this seat for a long, long time.
Posted by: netrootsdemocrat | April 25, 2007 at 11:08 PM
Mary Kim Titla is another potential nominee on the Democratic side, according to Tedski.
Posted by: Tim | April 25, 2007 at 11:36 PM
I second what netroots said. Unfortunately, I don't know what Steve Owens can bring to the table for the Native constituencies in CD1. I'm guessing his name is floated because he can raise a lot of money fast, but haven't we had enough carpetbaggers trying to get that seat? It was Ohio v. Virginia last time. I for one would like to see N. Arizona v. N. Arizona next time.
BTW Greg when you first mentioned "Owens" in your post, I thought you were talking about Carter, not Steve. Doesn't that guy actually live in the district?
Posted by: Faith | April 26, 2007 at 11:43 AM
I'm sorry but Kris Mayes is no moderate. She is a liberal. In fact, I believe she only runs as a Republican because she believes it's necessary to win. Let's not forget that no one appears more on Napolitano's 2002 campaign finance reports than Kris' name.
Tom O'Halleran, in his heart, is probably a liberal - at least on social issues and the environment. However he can talk a good talk so it may be accurate to classify him as a moderate. However, since it's not likely to get elected as a dem in district 1, I must again assume that he identifies with the Reps merely to get the votes.
Posted by: Mark | April 26, 2007 at 02:54 PM
What about Jim Pederson on the Democratic side? He could break the spending record for that district with one personal check, while everyone else is raising it in $2300 increments in an election that lasts 4 months. He also grew up in the district (Casa Grande). A win here would establish him as the frontrunner for the US Senate in 2010 or 2012, whichever one Janet doesn't run in.
I think Bill Konopnicki is an interesting choice on the R side. Moderate enough to win a general, could easily self fund a race, and shares LDS church membership with a significant part of the district.
Posted by: George Hunt's Ghost | April 26, 2007 at 05:48 PM
Steve Owens did run in the district, in a sense. He ran against JD Hayworth in the old CD 6. Quite a bit of that district (Flagstaff, Navajo and other reservations, White Mountains, Clifton, Superior, Casa Grande) is part of the now-CD1. Owens' problem is that he is not very personable and warm; he's not very comfortable pressing the flesh and it shows.
If Bennett was to run, he'd have a solid base. He's lived in the district for years, he's LDS and he's conservative without being ultra-right.
Posted by: dgn | April 26, 2007 at 06:11 PM
Yes, I actually agree with your picks. Owens does have a place in Flagstaff and even voted in the district for the past three election cycles. He also does visit the Navajo Nation at least three times a year.
Bennett may win the mainstream Republican vote, but his family issues may be detrimental. What about Louis Tenney (Navajo County Supervisor)?
Posted by: Sunshine | April 26, 2007 at 11:58 PM
Lewis ran a very close second place in 2002 despite being outspent by Renzi by nearly 6-1. I don't know if he'd be up for it again and I know he's been off of the Navajo County Board of Supervisors for a while now.
Posted by: TEEJ | April 27, 2007 at 01:53 AM
Owens has a place up here? I didn't know that and have never seen him. I hope they don't draft poor Babbit, seems nice enough fellow but he always has a confused look about him when I see him here in town.
Posted by: Thomas | April 27, 2007 at 01:01 PM
Ha! Yes, Babbit shoud not run in that district ever again. Even though he and his brother hardly ever deal with each other, the ranchers/miners dispise what Bruce did as Secretary of Interior and took it out on Paul.
Other possible "D" Contenders:
Alan Affelt (Mayor of Winslow)- Shouldn't run
Liz Archeuleta (Coconino County BOS)- Nice Lady, shouldn't run
Geroge Cordova (Former candidate of CD1)- Maybe. Not sure if he can secure the nomination.
Ann Kirkpatrick (Legislator)- Maybe, nice lady though.
Jim Ledbetter (Almost Pearl Jam song)- Good guy, shouldn't run
Jim Pederson- He's a good man. I just hope he doesn't run.
Howard Shanker (Attorney, recent victory for Peaks case). Doesn't he live in Awatukee?
Ellen Simon- Shouldn't run
My problem with all of these candidates this question: "Can they get votes south of the Mogollon Rim?"..."Over a Reupublican Candidate?" I do believe Steve Owens can.
Two thirds of these guys will not run (hopefully), but with Renzi's recent anouncement today, it may be a while before things start to unfold.
Posted by: Sunshine | April 27, 2007 at 06:45 PM