McCain Update

Interesting commentary from Powerline.

A Mason-Dixon poll of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina shows Fred Thompson in the lead with 25 percent, followed by Rudy Giulinai (21 percent), Mitt Romney (11 percent), and John McCain (7 percent). Thompson's showing isn't all that significant -- if he can't outpoll two centrists and a yankee Mormon in South Carolina, he has no shot. The significance of this poll (unless it's an outlier) is McCain's dreadful showing of 7 percent. Polls taken a month ago (albeit by different organizations) showed him with two to three times that level of support (I discount the results of the American Research Group, which always seems to tilt heavily in McCain's favor).

Giuliani and Romney seem to be holding steady in South Carolina. What's changing is the Thompson-McCain split. An Insider Advantage poll from late May had McCain at 17 percent and Thomsson at 13 percent. The Mason-Dixon poll shows the combined Thompson-McCain support at essentially the same level, but with Thompson claiming about 70 percent of it.

It may be that the only thing standing between a two-man race between Giuliani and Thompson is Mitt Romney.

UPDATE: On the Democratic side, it's John Edwards who gets the bad news. In the state where he was born, he receives about half the support of Hillary Clinton and about one-third of Barack Obama's level.

Comments

[BobH]

Take a look at Rasmussen's weekly tracking poll -- same thing on a national level as these number show in SC:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary

From January to 5/22, McCain's numbers barely fluctuated -- he started at 20% and finished at 18%, and all his numbers were within a few points of that (a high of 22% and a low of 15%).

Since 5/22, however, he has scored 15-14-11-10. Can anyone think of a major issue that came to a head in late May?

Whether his position is a principled stand or a misreading of the public mood, immigration has finished McCain.

I wonder if he'll follow Bloomberg out of the party? (Not that Bloomberg was in the party very long).

[Horst Kraus]

Fred Thompson hasn't reached his highest water mark yet. That moment will come a split second before he announces officially his candidacy.
The electorate will eventually recognize that Fred is a hero and a winner on TV because the show has a script and everyone knows he will win from the moment the cameras begin to roll; for the show that is.
There is no script for the immense responsibility that bears continuously onto the shoulders of our president.
I do not have a crystal ball, but I would view an independent run by Bloomberg as a spoiler that benefits Hillary.
A run by Fred will achieve the same.
The outrage that exists among our citizens with respect to unprotected borders, to some degree justifiable, is miss-directed against Senator McCain.
He has a solution, he is not the problem.
The expectations, harbored by many of the otherwise most loving, Christian Conservatives of the right wing of the Republican Party with respect to solving the illegal immigration malaise are unrealistic and utopian. They need to get their feet back onto firm ground of realistic comprehension.
To dupe a comprehensive plan that was developed by leaders of our government, men that we elected, into a one word negative phrase namely “AMNESTY” and then harvest on the fruits of ill understanding is an abomination of forward thinking.
That, fellow country men and women is what is unbecoming to our standing with-in a larger frame known as civilization.

[Joe G.]

Horst,

Some would argue that the "unrealistic and utopian" views are held by those who expect border enforcement will somehow occur after this legislation is passed.

[NICK]

WHAT SAY HORST? Like convoluted.

I told John's office to remove my
name from his mailing list.

[Aaron]

This election is 1992 again with War in the mix. I think Bloomberg will run and get a lot of votes for president. If the Dems and GOP nominate weak nominees look out!

[Horst Kraus]

Joe G,
I am not naïve. Border enforcement will not occur as a consequence of passage of the senate bill. But the disarray of unidentifiable aliens will begin to diminish as a result of the bill’s passage. Systematic order and statistical identities together with collectable taxation and in-eligibility for social services can be established and services denied. The criminal element can be separated from those just willing to work, earn an honest dollar and return home after the harvest.
Those who have broken serious law and caused damage to our society can be then deported without making us look inhuman. I am not all that concerned wit a guy that walks through the desert for 3 days and 3 nights to find a job to sweep a barn or pick some lettuce. I am concerned about one in ten of those that come with a backpack full of hard narcotics.
I am not concerned about the anchor baby that just turned 21, serves in the US Army and protects your and my freedom risking his life in Iraq. I would be concerned if his perhaps illigical wife who works at McDonald was deported and their baby wound up in an orphanage.
There is more than one item I could find to change in the Senate Bill, but I am not a nit picker and we do have to start at some point clean up the chaos of 12 million that are already here.
To Nick,
Thank you for getting off the Senators mailing list. I am sure he finds a better use for the postage he’ll safe.

[Joe G.]

Horst,

I find little to disagree with you about re: how immigration should be enforced or whether hardship cases should be allowed.

I think where we differ is the believe that these measures will ever be instituted, and I would argue that my lack of faith is directly attributable to the Republicans who have promised enforcement and delivered little. We can't even deport the criminals right now, let alone once a comprehensive bill is passed and Z visas are the coin of the realm.

In short, we are in this jam now because Republican leaders have been unwilling to speak out regarding the importance of law and citizenship, while quite willing to use ad hominem attacks and rhetorical fog against Americans.

Also, as conservatives, we are generally very skeptical of "comprehensive" legislation that promises actions we cannot currently achieve while assuring us the worst will not happen. Healthy skepticism is no vice, and a Republican acknowledgement of the importance of law and American values would go a long way towards solving the situation.

[ron]

I saw a guy standing in the 109 degree heat this afternoon about 5:15 PM on Bell Road east of I-17. His sign said, "Build the fence."

No comment.