Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

Rock Star Status

I noticed this ad on azcentral this morning and it reminded me so much of this publicity shot that I had to laugh. 

Tom Horne Rachs--updated

People with serious talent impress me. I'm thinking of guys like Professor Hurwitz who studied for the Arizona Bar exam on the plane trip to Arizona and not only passed, but also got the highest score, or Chuck Blanchard who was number one in his class at Harvard. 

I'm also impressed when people excel in two very different fields.  So I was pretty surprised when Superintendent of Public Instruction--and Harvard Lawyer--Tom Horne called to ask if my wife and I would like to attend a performance of Rachmaninoff and Gershwin at his home.  I said sure, who's playing?  Much to my surprise, Tom said that he and a friend would be playing.

Debbie and I arrived at Tom's Paradise Valley home on Sunday afternoon, met his neighbors, enjoyed his wife's buffet and then sat down to a wonderful rendition of Rachmaninoff's Piano Concerto number two.  I had to remind myself not to applaud between movements lest I reveal my Classic Rock Redneck Roots, but otherwise, the performance by Horne and his equally talented friend Charles Wells--was thoroughly enjoyable. In fact, it was really awesome. 

Rach II was Ayn Rand's favorite piece.  So it's a cult favorite among Conservatives...there was a time when I would listen to it everyday for months.  I don't have a video of Tom Horne playing it, but if you want a great example of the piece here's Van Karajan conducting while Alexis Weissenberg plays.

UPDATE:  It's funny, I never have any idea how the comment threads are going to evolve.  I mentioned Hurwitz and Blanchard because I'm really impressed with what they have accomplished and because it gives some partisan balance to the post.  I didn't want to have this post about Tom Horne appear out of the blue and have people respond.."oh yeah, well there are plenty of talented Democrats as well."

Ironically, Instead of commenting on the main part of the post, all the comments are on my examples.  That's fair enough, but now I feel the need to back up my statements.   Blanchard was indeed number one in his class at Harvard.  I heard the Governor use that as an example in a speech and I verified it with him.  Summas are very very rare at Harvard and are only granted about once a decade.  Blanchard was number one and Magna.

Professor Huwitz had passed a prior bar exam, clerked for an Appellate judge and then clerked for the Supreme Court but when he moved to AZ, he had to take the Arizona bar.  He ran out of time and only studied on the plane trip to Arizona.  He had the highest score that year.  Anyone who has taken the bar will understand that this feat is not diminished by the fact that he had taken a previous bar exam in another state. 

As for the comment that I deleted.  It not only included profanity, but it was an anonymous criticism of someone who was only tangentially mentioned in a post.  I'm very patient with the comments and I allow anonymous threads to continue for weeks, but if you are going to be critical of someone--especially if you include profanity--and you are not willing to use you real name, your comment is likely to be gone in a matter of minutes. 

Now chill out and enjoy Rach II.

Freedom Chimes In

The Independent expenditures are starting in CD 5.  This ad is running in today's Republic.   Here's the press release from Freedom Watch.

Washington, DC – Today, Freedom's Watch launched a print ad campaign urging members of Congress to “stop playing politics” and “fund the troops.”  These full-page ads feature an open letter to Speaker Pelosi and members of Congress, highlighting the progress we are making in Iraq and calling for “Congress to show resolve, put aside politics and to unite behind victory” from Andrew Robinson, an Iraq war veteran.  Andrew Robinson served courageously in the U.S. Marine Corps and was on his second tour of duty when he was wounded by an IED in June of 2006.  These print ads appeared in seven newspapers across the country:  The Arizona Republic, The Sacramento Bee, The Palm Beach Post, Evansville Courier & Press, Topeka Capital-Journal, The Columbus Dispatch, The [Scranton] Times-Tribune.   

CQ on Schweikert

Congressional Quarterly has CD 5 update.  There's one glaring error in the ariticle.  Schweikert placed second to Hayworth in 1994.  The article claims he came in fourth. 

As the latest entrant to the GOP field to challenge first-term Democratic Rep. Harry E. Mitchell , former Arizona legislator and Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert argues that 2008 will be an obvious chance for his party to regain the Republican-leaning 5th District, and that he’s the strong candidate to do so.

Schweikert said longstanding political presence in the area — beginning with his first run for the state Legislature at the age of 26 in 1988 — have helped cement his ties in the district. “I’ve been really lucky but I’ve also been in literally this same area for 20 years in politics. .... I have gained a certain benefit by being a known commodity and that’s helped,” he said.

Sean McCaffrey, executive director of the Arizona Republican Party, said there were now “three very positive, very forward-thinking candidates who have big dreams about what could happen” in Schweikert, lobbyist and former congressional aide Jim Ogsbury, and former state legislator Laura Knaperek.

“It’s a very fresh, uplifting [message], no hard-right-versus-hard-left stuff. It’s about resumes and qualifications. It’s about what can happen if works gets done,” McCaffrey said.

It will be a second shot at Congress for Schweikert, who placed fourth in the five-candidate open GOP primary for the 6th District that former Rep. J.D. Hayworth won in 1994. Redistricting prior to the 2002 election made the renumbered 5th District a more reliably Republican district, one that Hayworth held until Mitchell unseated him in 2006 in a campaign focused largely on ethics issues.

Schweikert said that voter demographics were on his side in the race. “Nothing is ever a sure shot but if you look at the voting pattern of the district and the communities  . . .  it’s hard to make an argument that’s based in facts that this will stay a Democrat-controlled seat,” he told CQ Politics.

Forty-two percent of district voters are registered Republicans, while 28 percent describe themselves as Democrats and 29 percent identify themselves as “other,” and district voters gave President Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004.

Schweikert described himself as a “consistently conservative candidate” who had the chops to help balance the nation’s budget having served as Maricopa County treasurer. He said his top interest is bringing “fiscal sanity” to Washington.

“I have great concerns about what is happening in everything from budget and tax policy to entitlement and entitlement reform,” he said.

The percentage of registered independents was rising in the state because “people are tired of both parties being either filled with broken promises or being so negative,” said the GOP’s McCaffrey.

McCaffrey said that while Mitchell is congenial, he has broken promises on campaign issues related to taxes, support for soldiers and gas prices. In Congress, he said, Mitchell has taken an unexpected turn toward the party’s liberal faction.

“He’s a very nice gentleman, he is a very well-meaning gentleman, but he campaigned on some very specific things ... and he’s made just some very strange decisions,” he said.

Mitchell said in a statement to CQ Politics that “Right now I’m working as hard as I can to improve care for our veterans, fight for fiscal responsibility and end our nation’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil and everything else I can do to represent the people of the Fifth District.”

Mark Manoil, chairman of the Maricopa County Democratic Party, said Mitchell’s overwhelming popularity will win the day. “Gosh, one of the things that people of all stripes have pointed out is that Harry Mitchell is about the only living politician serving in office who has a 30-foot statue erected in his honor,” he said, referring to a statue in Mitchell’s hometown of Tempe.

Manoil said GOP is wrong if it thinks that it can win the district without winning Mitchell’s hometown. The race will be competitive, Manoil said, but Mitchell maintains advantages. “Frankly Harry Mitchell is an extremely popular person for good reason  . . .  he’s like everybody’s favorite grandfather ... [and] understands what representing a constituency is all about.”

Is there no Decency?

TV "news" programs long ago abandoned covering actual news and began focusing on car chases, garage fires and crime scenes.  Any sense of news judgment is long gone and the sensationalist pandering is only limited by the FCC restrictions on profanity and gore. 

Unfortunately, TV News websites are not constrained by the FCC or news judgment, so they often exhibit a remarkable degree of insensitivity. 

Take the coverage of Carol Gotbaum--the woman who died in custody at Sky Harbor.   Gotbaum's death has all the makings of a classic news story, it's salacious and has footage--it's destined to be a made-for-cable movie. 

Her autopsy report indicates that she was intoxicated.  OK, well and good.  That's important information.  But Channel 5 put the ENTIRE report on its website.  Have you ever read an autopsy report?  It would be bad enough to have someone you love die in a tragic accident, worse still to have it become a national story, but to have a news station make public the report that points out that her:

"Genitalia are..."

Come on guys is there no decency?

Speaking of Bombing...

Hollywood liberals are finding that it's expensive to be out of touch with reality. 

The wave of recent films set against the backdrop of war in Iraq and post-9/11 security has failed to win over film-goers keen to escape grim news headlines when they go to the movies, analysts say.

Almost without exception, however, the crop of movies have struggled to turn a profit at the box-office and in many cases have received a mauling from unimpressed critics as well.

Maybe I'm being jingoistic, but I don't think audiences are tired of war movies per se. I think audiences are tired of the US being portrayed as the bad guy. 

Here's the tally so far. 

"Rendition,"  has taken just under 10 million dollars at the box office, a disastrous return.

"In the Valley of Elah," about a father investigating the death of his son in Iraq, earned favorable reviews but less than seven million dollars following its release in September.

Even the action-packed "The Kingdom," starring Jamie Foxx and Jennifer Garner fell well below its 70 million budget with around 47 million dollars in ticket sales.

The poor returns do not augur well for more war films due for release in North America later this month, notably the Robert Redford-directed drama "Lions for Lambs" and Brian De Palma's hard-hitting "Redacted," based on the real-life rape and murder of an Iraqi schoolgirl by US soldiers.

Ah yes, the Marines as child rapists.  Good luck with that. 

Dems Smell Blood in AZ

According  CQ Politics, Arizona Republicans may need to get a bigger boat.  (Of course, my recollection of the movie is that the shark doesn't make it.)

There is nothing like an election victory or two to make a political party forget its recent struggles with a renewed sense of confidence — and ambition. That is the case these days for Democrats in the generally conservative-leaning state of Arizona. After gaining two U.S. House seats in 2006 to break even with the Republicans at four apiece, they are trying for more in 2008.

One of their targets is a political no-brainer: The Democrats are targeting the state’s 1st District — drawn at the start of this decade as a politically competitive “swing” district — which three-term Republican Rick Renzi , weighed by ethics controversies, has left open to retire.

The other targeted Republican seat appears a more dubious prospect, though, at least on paper. The Democrats are going after seven-term Rep. John Shadegg , an activist conservative who has won easily in his previous elections in the 3rd, a largely conservative Phoenix-area district that gave 58 percent of its votes to President Bush in 2004.

Democrats have been emboldened to challenge Shadegg by their 2006 pickup in the Tucson-based 8th District, where Gabrielle Giffords won to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe — and, more particularly in this case, by Democrat Harry E. Mitchell’s victory over six-term Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the 5th, another metropolitan Phoenix district that has political and demographic characteristics similar to those in the 3rd District.

The Democrats also have, in challenger Bob Lord, something they have lacked in past races against Shadegg: a candidate who has organized and raise substantial funds early in the election cycle.

Lord, a tax lawyer and first-time candidate, argues that he is “not your average Democrat.” He said he zealously supports the protection of civil liberties, among which he includes gun owners’ rights under the 2nd Amendment — a bedrock principle for many conservative voters. He also contends that his background as a tax lawyer makes him particularly attuned to the problems of overburdening private enterprise.

“I understand how business works and the effect of overly burdensome tax code or overly burdensome regulation on the business community,” he said.

Shadegg, undaunted, told CQ Politics that he will win an eighth term next year, calling his district solidly Republican turf that is “unwinnable” for the Democrats.

Lord burst onto the scene earlier this year with surprisingly strong first-quarter fundraising, and he has maintained his pace. As of Sept. 30, Lord had raised more money from individual contributors than the congressman — $388,000 to $362,000 — although Shadegg maintained an advantage in overall fundraising ($526,000 to $402,000) and in cash reserves ($451,000 to $332,000).

Mark Manoil — chairman of the Democratic Party in Maricopa County, in which the 3rd District is located — said Lord’s strong fundraising and moderate viewpoints would appeal to the district’s increasing proportion of independent voters. In October, 27 percent of district voters were registered independents, up from 21 percent in January 2003, while registered Republicans dropped from 49 percent to 44 percent of all voters in the same time period. Democrats still trailed considerably, but saw a less significant decrease during the same time period, from 29 percent to 27 percent.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which orchestrates the party’s national campaign for control of the House, signaled its intentions to back Lord’s bid by running a radio ad in late October attacking Shadegg. The ad targeted him for voting against legislation to expand the federal State Children’s Health Insurance Program, or SCHIP, which Bush vetoed on grounds that it constituted a budget-busting shift of health care costs from private insurers to the government.

Democrats hoped the message would hurt Shadegg in two ways: by making it appear that he opposes health care for kids, and by tying him to Bush, whose support nationwide has waned sharply since his 2004 re-election.

“Did you know Congressman Shadegg gets health care at taxpayers’ expense, but Shadegg and Bush are blocking health care for 10 million uninsured children?” the ad said.

Lord has picked up on the same theme. Saying he shares Shadegg’s “stated views” on fiscal restraint, he added, “However, I find that he tends to want to exercise fiscal restraint where I would least want to exercise it. I don’t think that after spending more than half a trillion on the Iraq war, we should be exercising fiscal restraint by denying health insurance to children whose families cannot afford it.”

Shadegg, though, deflects these criticisms and strikes a defiant tone about the election.

“I just want you to know this is a race that I am not concerned about, and I’m not concerned about President Bush’s effect on the race, and if Bob Lord thinks he can beat me in this district with President Bush, more power to him,” he said. “Let’s have the debate.”

Republicans also argue that support for Bush in the district is stronger than support for the Democratic-led Congress. “I think it’s a tremendous fallacy to think that voters are going to punish people for support of ideas that belong to somebody else who’s not even on the ballot,” said Sean McCaffrey, executive director of the Arizona Republican Party, referring to the president, whose eighth and final year in office is approaching.

Shadegg even baited Democratic Party organizations and individual donors to put money into the 3rd District race, saying they are squandering resources that their party would be better off employing elsewhere. “It is not going to be money well spent on their part,” Shadegg said.

Shadegg noted he has won all of his House races with at least 59 percent of the vote and with margins of at least 21 percentage points, and also pointed to Bush’s strong district showing at the top of the GOP ticket in 2004.

“Mr. Lord must be convinced that he’s pretty good, that he’s better than me and he’s better than President Bush ... and I’m thrilled that he thinks so,” he said.

Congratulations Tucson!

It looks Tucson voters have flushed Prop 200...so to speak.

No Habla

Whenever I think there's an issue that will be covered differently in the Spanish language media, I make sure to listen to Spanish radio and read La Voz. So I was looking for coverage of the Phoenix City Council races and much to my surprise, I logged onto La Voz via Azcentral and saw a lead story about firefighters killed in the a furniture warehouse. 

I thought to myself "Dude, that's like a really old story."  Sure enough the date is "Junio 19, 2007." The site is sorely in need of an update. 

The Republic's acquisition of La Voz is like the guitar I bought in high school.  It seemed like a really cool idea and I was excited about it for a few weeks, but then my fingers hurt and I could only play three chords anyway, so it sat in the closet until my mom gave it to Goodwill. 

That's not the way it was supposed to be.  Here's the Republic in August of 2003.

Phoenix Newspapers Inc., owner of The Arizona Republic, has acquired majority interest in a local company that publishes a leading Spanish-language weekly newspaper and entertainment guide serving the Valley's growing Hispanic community.

The Republic, the largest metropolitan newspaper in Gannett Co. Inc., announced Wednesday the acquisition of the Ashland Media Group. Ashland owns the weekly newspaper La Voz and TV y Mas, a weekly entertainment publication, as well as two other English-language products.

"It's a huge opportunity for our company to leverage the resources of the largest newspaper company in the United States," said David Kaye, Ashland's founder and chief executive officer. Gannett, based in McLean, Va., publishes 94 newspapers, including USA Today, the nation's largest-selling daily.

La Voz and TV y Mas currently distribute 50,000 and 70,000 copies, respectively, in metro Phoenix. An additional 20,000 copies of TV y Mas are distributed in Tucson.

"It's important to us to have the ability to serve and reach our entire community," said Sue Clark-Johnson, chairman, CEO and publisher of The Republic.

"Hispanics are the fastest-growing demographic segment in our state, currently representing over 27 percent of our total market."

The 2000 U.S. census identified more than 540,000 Maricopa County residents who spoke Spanish at home.

The award-winning La Voz was launched in 2000. It employs 13 full-time reporters, editors and graphic designers and five part-time writers, publisher Elvira Ortiz said.

"Basically we're going to stay the same, but we'll have more resources," she said.

John Zidich, The Republic's executive vice president, said the partnership provides the state's largest newspaper access to Spanish-speaking consumers.

"We respect what La Voz has done in the Hispanic community," he said. "Our goal is not to go in and impose a voice on it."

Zidich said the move could eventually lead to more sharing of news and advertising content as well as combined distribution of products.

There's a Storm Brewing II

Last week, I pointed to Pima County's cancellation of its 2008 bond election and said that there's a storm brewing.

I think Pima County is making a good call.  People are starting to see the 2004 property values reflected in their assessments and they are getting pretty unhappy.  Voter angst is being compounded by problems at the state level as well.

Reporter Mathew Benson makes a similar point in today's Republic.

Hoping to capitalize on homeowners' angst over rising property-tax bills, another citizens group is targeting the tax with a Proposition 13-style initiative planned for the 2008 state ballot.

Arizonan's for Tax Reform has put out a comprehensive list of the proposals and has a few recommendations.  Here's their list. 

(I pointed out earlier that the Legislature is likely to bypass the Governor and take structural changes directly to the ballot.  So, I think the item dealing with Legislative alternatives at the end of their list is the most important.)

AFT-AFP Guide to Property Tax Reform in Arizona

Below you will find a quick guide from the Arizona Federation of Taxpayers, a state chapter of Americans for Prosperity, to the three property tax reform initiatives that have been filed with the Arizona Secretary of State. If the initiatives collect enough signatures, they will appear on the state ballot on November 4, 2008. AFT-AFP also comments on prospects for a property tax reform to be referred by the Legislature.

Prop 13 Arizona

Today, the Prop 13 Arizona committee filed its property tax reform initiative with the Arizona Secretary of State. Modeled on California’s famous Prop 13, the Prop 13 Arizona initiative would replace the state’s current constitutional limitations on assessed valuation (Article 9, Section 18). Features of the reform include: 1) a cap on all residential property taxes at 0.5 percent of assessed valuation; 2) a cap on all other property taxes (including taxes on business property) at one percent of assessed valuation; 3) beginning in 2009, a rollback in all property values to 2003 levels; 4) for all property purchased after 2003, assessed value will be set at the actual purchase price; 5) after 2009, all assessed values will increase by no more than two percent annually; and, 6) maintenance of the existing property valuation protection option for seniors. The initiative would repeal Article 9, Section 19 (the current levy limitations).

If it passes, and if it gets more votes than any competing initiative, the Prop 13 Arizona reforms would entail a radical transformation of Arizona’s system of property taxation, effectively ending the current role of the county assessors in setting assessed values for existing properties. The 0.5 percent residential cap and the one percent cap for all other properties, combined with the rollback to 2003 levels, would substantially reduce the amount of property tax money available to local taxing districts. Some districts could see reductions in property tax revenue of 50 percent or more. In Arizona’s education system, the result would be a large shift of burden from local property taxes to state-collected income and sales taxes. The Prop 13 Arizona initiative language is relatively simple, and leaves the mechanics of implementation to the state Legislature, including the distribution of rates and ratios between residential property and non-residential property, and the distribution of property tax revenues between competing taxing districts. 

To get involved with the Prop 13 Arizona committee, contact Lynne Weaver at info@Prop13Arizona.com.

Arizona Tax Revolt

This summer, the Mohave County-based Arizona Tax Revolt committee filed two property tax reform initiatives, one dealing with constitutional levy limitations (Article 9, Section 19) and one dealing with changes to the system of assessed valuation (Article 9, Section 18).

ATR Levy Limitation and Rollback Initiative.  (Article 9, Section 19)  The Arizona Tax Revolt levy limitation initiative would broaden the existing two percent limit for levy increases to include all taxing districts. It would also roll many levies back to 2005 levels, and require a two-thirds majority for voter approval to raise any future levy faster than two percent in one year.

If the ATR levy limit initiative reaches the ballot (and if it is approved by Arizona voters in greater numbers than the Prop 13 Arizona initiative), its features would result in significant tax relief for all Arizona home and business property owners. By limiting yearly property tax levy increases two percent, the initiative would help to restrain the kind of outrageous overspending seen around the state in recent years. Preliminary estimates suggest that the tax revenue levied by various taxing districts could be reduced by anywhere from 10 to 30 percent.   

ATR Assessed Valuation Initiative.  (Article 9, Section 18)  ATR’s valuation rollback would serve as a backup measure for its levy rollback, providing relief for property owners who have suffered from large increases in assessed valuation in recent years. The initiative is somewhat complex, and prescribes a mathematical system for future assessments that attempts to ensure that similar properties are valued similarly.

The ATR initiatives cover more details than the Prop 13 Arizona initiative, but if both of the ATR initiatives pass and go into effect, the Legislature will still have to make upward adjustments in the statutory caps imposed on certain taxing districts, and it would have to adjust the QTR for educational property taxes.

To get involved with the Arizona Tax Revolt committee, contact Marc Goldstone at

Chairman@ArizonaTAXRevolt.org or (602) 388-8833.

Legislative Referendum

Property tax reformers at the Arizona Legislature have been exploring the possibility of referring legislation to the November 4, 2008 ballot.

Although some legislators are looking at limits on assessed valuation (including a rollback), the heart of any truly effective proposal would be a levy limitation. If an effective limit is placed on levies, assessed values can increase without doing great harm to taxpayers, because rates will have to fall to compensate. The problem in Arizona has been the absence of effective limits on levies. Prop 101, which was referred to the November 2006 ballot by the Arizona Legislature and approved by the voters, did a good job of limiting the primary property tax levies for counties, cities/towns, and community colleges. Prop 101 strengthened existing provisions in Article 9, Section 18, by which the tax levies for those taxing districts can increase by only two percent per year. But there may be a dozen taxing districts on a typical taxpayer’s property tax bill—and most of those districts are not subject to Prop 101’s two percent levy limit.

Strong Legislative Referendum. A strong reform would apply the Prop 101-style two percent levy increase limit to all taxing districts going forward, and would be even stronger with a two-thirds voter override provision (such as the one included in the ATR levy limitation initiative).

Weak Legislative Referendum.  A weak reform would involve having a two percent levy limit as a default, but allow simple majorities of taxing district officials to adjust rates so as to exceed the two-percent levy increase limit. The problem with this kind of Truth-in-Taxation provision is that it requires voters to pay close attention to the votes made by city council members, county supervisors, and dozens of other officials. 

In our judgment, because of the political strength of the local taxing and spending interests, it is unlikely that any rollback provision could be referred out of the Legislature. In other words, any legislative referendum that survives would probably be forward-looking, and not provide retroactive relief.

AFT-AFP Recommendation

Out of strategic considerations, AFT-AFP recommends that grassroots property tax activists combine forces and support a single initiative. It will be difficult enough for activists to collect enough signatures to get a single initiative onto the 2008 ballot, and it will be difficult enough for activists to promote a single reform in the face of pro-spending propaganda, without also engaging in side arguments about why one grassroots initiative is supposedly better than another.

AFT-AFP’s preference among the three initiatives currently filed is ATR’s levy rollback and limitation initiative. Given the structure of the Arizona property tax system, a levy limitation initiative is the “golden bullet” for property tax reform. Although taxpayers have naturally fixated on the huge growth in their assessed values, the determining factor in the Arizona property tax equation is the amount of money levied by local taxing districts. In Arizona, limits on assessed valuation are of secondary importance to the objective of reducing overall tax burdens on home and business property owners. (The 0.5 and one-percent caps in the Prop 13 Arizona initiative would indeed achieve a form of levy limitation. But the initial reductions in revenue are likely to be so large, and go into effect so rapidly, as to pose difficult transition problems for some local districts. The spending interests will likely oppose any reform—even a weak referendum—but the heavier the revenue cut, the more realistic will be their claims of hardship.) 

Ideally, AFT-AFP would like to see a vigorous public debate in 2008 that is focused on the differences between a strong levy rollback and limitation initiative (such as the one from ATR) and a referendum from the Legislature (which is likely to be weaker, and which would probably not include a rollback).