Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

All the News That's Fit to Fabricate

The hapless New York Times has weighed in on Arizona's Employer Sanctions Law.  Most of it is the same old stuff--the Governor was forced to sign the bill, the economy is going to collapse, people in Arizona are mean.  Yada Yada. 

However, this factoid caught my eye. 

Sheriff Arpaio makes a show of his meanness, hounding and humiliating prisoners and forming his deputies into squads that check people’s clothes and accents before demanding their papers.

Give me a break.  Even Arpaio's critics aren't making that claim. 

Golly, for some reason readers have lost confidence in the Times.  In the last 5 years, the S&P 500 has risen 63% and the Times has fallen 63%.  Somehow, I don't think they can just blame the Internet. 

The Genesis of the Exodus

Two things in this morning's Republic caught my eye.  The first is the front page story about the self deportation that is occurring now that illegal immigrants are having a difficult time finding jobs.  It's clear that the employer sanctions law is having its intended effect.  Now that employment incentives have been eliminated, illegal immigrants are making the rational economic decision to leave the state. 

The other thing that caught my eye was the ongoing attempt by the Republic to rewrite the history of the Employer Sanctions bill.  The Republic simply can't admit that the sanctions bill was originally suggested by Democratic Legislators, that Governor Napolitano called for a sanctions bill in her State of the State address, that Democrats fought to have employer sanctions in previous immigration bills and that two thirds of the legislature voted for the sanctions bill. 

Joe Garcia who works as the Viewpoints Editor of the Republic announced on Sunday Square Off that the Governor had somehow been fooled into signing the legislation.  I'll chalk that one up to the stress of live TV. 

Today's Montini column is more typical.

The governor said at the time that because Congress has failed to act, Arizona had no choice.

But then, Napolitano had no choice either, because the Legislature was going to push something through with or without her.

That's the new corporate line.  The governor had no choice because the legislature would have done it with out her. 

I completely debunked that revisionist history here. 

The conventional wisdom could not be more wrong.  Employer sanctions were a pawn, offered up as a sacrifice to gain strategic advantage in the broader chess game of immigration reform.  Employer Sanctions began as a Democratic strategy to derail Republican efforts to toughen immigration laws.  The sanction strategy was a bold gambit that simultaneously made the Legislative Democrats and Governor Napolitano look tough on illegal immigration while driving a wedge into the Republican caucus.

So don't be tricked by the apologists in the media.  The governor was not "forced" and the governor was not "fooled."  Illegal immigrants who were once lured by illegal employment have lost their incentive to remain and are leaving en masse

Governor Napolitano and her Democratic Allies in the legislature were the Genesis of the Exodus.

The Costs of Illegal Immigration

The Congressional Budget Office has just published a very interesting report on the costs of illegal immigration.  The report attempts to quantify the federal, state and local costs of Healthcare, education and law enforcement associated with illegal immigrants and then compare that to the revenue generated by the percentage of the illegal population that actually pays taxes. 

Some states bear a disproportunate share of the costs and Arizona is one of them.  I thought this footnote was interesting. 

Although not traditionally a destination for unauthorized immigrants, Arizona has seen a dramatic increase in that population in recent years, making it the state with the fourth highest estimated
number of unauthorized immigrants (about 575,000, in 2007) and one of the states with the highest estimated percentage of unauthorized immigrants.(9 Percent)

Now That's Turnover

Mike Madden just gave notice that he's leaving the Republic as its Washington correspondent. That means the entire political team turned over in little over one year at the Republic. 

The Roots of the Revolution

On December 17th, 1997--ten years ago today--Jorn Barger, growing increasingly tired of devoting his website exclusively to robotics, announced that he was also going to provide links to the websites that he enjoyed.   In addition to the links, he would provide short commentary about why he thought the link was interesting.   He said that he would provide a separate "log" of those links on this site. 

Barger's idea became popular as other web designers decided to point their readers to sites that interested them.  Each of their websites had a separate "log" of these interesting sites.  Eventually entire sites were devoted to these logs and explanations.  Those sites became known as web logs.  In May of 1999 Peter Merholz jokingly split the term "weblog" into "we blog."  At that point, "blog" became a verb.

Without the blogs, John Kerry would be president, Dan Rather would be employed, Trent Lott would remain in the Senate and newspapers arguably would be credible. 

It may be decades before Jorn Barger is ever mentioned in a history text, but the web logs have indeed changed the course of history. 

Hmm, To Be Fair...

I was pretty critical of this: 

So it's hard not to be critical of this: 

Nooooonan.

Peggy Noonan on Hillary.  Wow.

This thought occurs that Hillary Clinton's entire campaign is, and always was, a Potemkin village, a giant head fake, a haughty facade hollow at the core. That she is disorganized on the ground in Iowa, taken aback by a challenge to her invincibility, that she doesn't actually have an A team, that her advisers have always been chosen more for proven loyalty than talent, that her supporters don't feel deep affection for her. That she's scrambling chaotically to catch up, with surrogates saying scuzzy things about Barack Obama and drug use, and her following up with apologies that will, as always, keep the story alive. That her guru-pollster, the almost universally disliked Mark Penn, has, according to Newsday, become the focus of charges that he has "mistakenly run Clinton as a de facto incumbent" and that the top officials on the campaign have never had a real understanding of Iowa.

Veni Vidi, Visa... I Came, I Saw, I Spent

The state budget is a mess.  Let's take a look at the history of how we got here.  All quotes are from the Republic. 

The Governor inherited a mess.

The state budget is in a $1 billion free fall. Many parts of public education are receiving lousy grades. The state universities are pushing to reach new heights but remain uncertain whether tuition should be as expensive or as close to free as the law allows. January 1, 2003

Bob Robb, for one questioned her solution.

Although Napolitano inherited the large gap between same-year income and expenditures, she proposes to paper it over with more than $300 million in borrowing. That's a decidedly un-New Democrat thing to do. It also happens to approximate the budget cuts Napolitano promised but has not delivered.  Bob Robb April 2003

Nevertheless 2003 went well for the Gov. 

Since Gov. Janet Napolitano grabbed Arizona by the lapels a year ago today, life just hasn't been the same.

"The budget deal was a superb performance," said Alfredo Gutierrez, her Democratic rival in the 2002 governor's race. "She showed that she could command the details of the budget better than anyone in the Legislature. She just stared everyone down."  January 6, 2004

And 2004 was looking really good. 

An improving economy has tax revenues pouring in at about $150 million over forecasts through the first half of the fiscal year, legislative leaders said Tuesday. That upward trend could shrink their projected shortfall for the 2004-05 budget from approximately $900 million to $400 million to $500 million.   January 7, 2004

By 2005, there was some debate about the future. 

This year's mantra from Republican leaders is "get rid of the structural deficit." In the past couple of years the state budget has relied on some financial gymnastics to avoid gutting programs that are crucial for future economic growth. We should recognize that some spending is an investment, which will pay off in the future or save dollars down the road.  January 9, 2005

In 2006 things looked really good.

Arizona is a land of milk and honey this year. The state budget is overflowing, with an expected surplus of $850 million as the Legislature heads into its 2006 session. What a turnaround. Just a couple of years ago, the budget overflow was red ink.  January 8, 2006

Gov. Janet Napolitano unveiled a $10.1 billion state budget Tuesday designed to fix what's broken in Arizona: the education system, immigration, the health care system, social services for families and state employees' pay.

The budget surplus has risen to about $1 billion, providing what could be a one-time opportunity to remedy ills that have plunged Arizona to the bottom of rankings in education, state-employee salaries and other areas.

"We have to do more than penny ante stuff, or we won't get where we want to go," Napolitano said in presenting her 2006-07 budget, which would increase spending by 20 percent. January 18, 2006

Len Munsil announces he's running for governor and complains about the state's fiscal management.  The Republic's Chip Scutari is in full defense mode.

Despite the occasional empty gesture, Napolitano has also been far from a do-nothing governor. She held the line against budget cuts for education during the lean years and used her political leverage to begin phasing in state-paid all-day kindergarten.  Feb 19, 2006

Napolitano makes Arizona's fiscal strength a major issue in her re-election campaign.

Napolitano's camp points to the state's improved fiscal standing under her leadership, especially the billion-dollar budget deficit she inherited that became a billion-dollar surplus this year. The state economy remains one of the nation's best.  Sept. 14, 2006

Immediately after the election, the press was willing to admit that there was trouble ahead.

She inherited a state deficit that grew to $1 billion soon after she took office in 2003, and she helped balance that budget and lead the state to a surplus of more than $1 billion in the years to follow. The boast was central to her campaign for re-election earlier this year.

But now some experts are warning that the state is sliding back toward the red for the first time since 2004. December 24, 2006

Full speed ahead for 2007

The budget may be tighter, but Gov. Janet Napolitano on Monday is expected to say this is no time to let up when it comes to planning and preparing for future growth, especially regarding education.

She is expected to push for funding to hire more K-12 teachers and to expand the capacity of Arizona colleges and universities. She will advocate more math and science for high school students and a two-year increase in the minimum dropout age to 18.

And she is expected to pursue an additional pay raise for teachers. Building on last year's increase, that would mean a minimum salary between $30,000 and $35,000 for starting teachers, an across-the-board pay hike for existing instructors and an additional bump for those specializing in math, science and special education.

"We need to look at children as they start school, what they learn in school and what they know when they graduate," Napolitano told The Arizona Republic.  January 7, 2007

What goes around comes around.  Here's the report from earlier this week. 

The result is a deepening state budget shortfall that's now pegged at $970 million for fiscal 2008. Unless significant cuts are made to ongoing state spending, as opposed to relying on one-time cuts and the use of reserves, the economists warned that the deficit could grow to $1.8 billion by fiscal 2009. The projections were offered by the Finance Advisory Committee, a panel of economic experts that meets periodically to offer guidance to legislators and their budget staff.  December 11, 2007

Lest the Governor's apologists trot out the tired Shibboleth that tax cuts caused the deficit, let me once again include ATRA's Spending and Revenue Graph.  It's a bit out of date, but clearly shows that while revenue has dipped recently, it remains nearly 80% higher than when the Governor took office.  If spending had been held to a reasonable level, the state budget wouldn't be a billion dollars in the read.   

"Who are Those Guys?"

It looks like Andy Thomas is going to have some competition. 

Nelson, 44, is a hotshot in the Guv's Office and works as her chief counsel. He's also a big marathoner, so he know's (sic) something about running. (Drumroll, please).  If he decides to go for it, it would be his first run for public office.

The Republic reporters are new to blogging, so I have to make a quick point. 

When you make a bad pun, you don't call for a "Drumroll", you call for a "Rim shot".

"Hey, did you hear that Stan Barnes is running for Governor?  With a name like that, you know he's outstanding in any field." (Rim shot).

The Drumroll is reserved for high suspense announcements.  "Word is that the hostile take over of the Republic has been orchestrated by (drumroll, please)...Dan Quayle."

Blogging lessons aside, the Nelson trial balloon has interesting implications.  Maricopa County has been Republican territory for so long that credible Democrats have given up running for the Row Offices.  Sure, Democrats will make the usual noise about the state becoming bluer and how they will have credible candidates for every office...yadda yadda yadda.  But you aren't going to someone with Nelson's stature running for County Treasurer or County Assessor. 

Nelson's balloon is the first public indication of something the political community has understood but not voiced.  The newspapers are going to turn Thomas' (and to a lessor extent Arpaio's) defeat into a high priority agenda item.  Picture Mecham in 1987, Jeff Groscost in 2000 or J.D. Hayworth in 2006.  Or Butch and Sundance circa 1908.

Newspapers aren't the force that they used to be, but they are a force.  If they decide to really hound a candidate they can tip the balance.  The first step is to telegraph their intentions to the political community in order to draw a credible opponent into the race.  Nelson's announcement is an indication that the first step has already been accomplished. 

Most Republicans will rally around Thomas and he remains popular.  However his hard-line immigration stands will eliminate his support among business types. While his appalling lack of judgment in the indictment of Russ Jones has raised questions about his qualifications with the entire Republican Establishment west of Gilbert Road. 

Of course, Thomas has never relied on business types or the Republican Establishment.  But their support adds money and credibility to his candidacy, and their lack of support adds momentum and legitimacy to his opponents. 

Behind the scenes, Republican speculation will center on whether Republicans are likely to lose the seat if they rally around Thomas.  We are likely to see a prominent Republican moderate test the waters by openly speculating about Thomas' vulnerability and Nelson's strength.

So what result?  Advantage goes to the incumbent.  Thomas is a tenacious campaigner and the press has consistently tried to portray him as an extremist, so in a normal campaign cycle, it's unlikely that they will be able to move too many votes.  But if Thomas makes any more missteps and the media decide to really pile on then his lack of support in some Republican circles and the perceived vulnerability among Democrats could send him back to the private sector. 

"Will the last one to leave please turn out the lights and unplug the Coffee Pot."

Word is that the Republic's Ginger Richardson just left to be Director of Communications for Go Daddy.com.