Independents are the fastest growing category of registered voters in Arizona and will soon surpass the Democrat party as the second largest party in Arizona.
The hapless Arizona Daily Star has suddenly realized that this may be a problem.
Independent registration over Democrat or Republican appears to be draining the two major parties of moderate, diverse thinkers who are interested in reasoned, centered political agendas.
We see the result as furthering the polarization of the parties, pushing Republicans to the far-right, conservative corner, and characterizing Democrats as über-liberal.
The Star provides a facile hypothetical profile of the independent voter who feels strongly about issues but doesn't feel a at home in either party, but the reality is that most independents are weak party identifiers who used to register as Republican or Democrat, generally sit out primary elections and then vote a split ticket.
In the past, that type of voter had to chose a party when he registered or face being completely excluded from a primary. The rise of independent voter is a direct result of "reforms" advocated by the Star and Republic that allow independents to vote in either party's primary.
The Star is beginning to understand the result. Registrants who choose a party now tend to be loyalists, and party loyalists generally represent the more extreme ends of each party. So the newspapers' efforts to eliminate partisanship have done what hard core Democrats and Republicans have been unable to do--drive the moderate DINOs and RINOs from the party. The two big tents have been exchanged for a variety of little ones.
Now the Reformers have awakened to the fact that it's harder to elect moderates in primaries if all the moderates call themselves independents. That's because moderate candidates get little help from the formal party structure and it's expensive to identify and turnout intendant voters who in the past would have registered as Republicans or Democrats. Moderate candidates have to target ALL of the independents even though only half will vote in their primary. Conservatives simply have to target the remnant and they have a built in grassroots network to help.
The reason political parties arose is that they help get people elected. Allowing independents to vote in each party primary seemed like a way to OPEN the process and weaken the parties. But the reformers are now realizing that they have actually driven the moderate voters out of the party by giving them a viable alternative. So now the two major parties are more extreme and the legislators they elect are more extreme as well.
Ironically, another major "reform" public financing--makes the problem more acute. It used to be that a moderate Republican or Democrat could get the grassroots support of the hardcore party members, but still relied on the chamber of commerce crowd for funding. Now the party structure is sufficient. A hardcore band of conservatives or liberals can raise enough $5 contributions and provide enough logistical help to overwhelm a moderate who has Chamber support, but lacks party support.
The result of these reforms is that the legislature is much more polarized than in previous years.
Next Sunday's Republic will feature Richard DeUriarte's list of the ten greatest legislators. You can be assured that Burton Barr will top the list. Barr was a moderate Republican who served as House Majority Leader for decades. He was just the type of guy the newspapers love--a moderate who could "get things done."
Barr probably couldn't even get elected in today's environment and he certainly couldn't become Majority Leader. More importantly, the campaign finance reforms and party primary reforms that have been advocated by the state's newspapers would eliminate the tools that Barr needed in order to be successfully. His ability to control campaign money and to discipline individual members was eliminated.
Now the legislators have their own financial power base and a tight party structure of hardcore Republicans and Democrats. Moderates have no party structure and a hard to identify and organize mass of voters who simply call themselves "Independent." So the hardcore partisans manage to elect their members to the legislature and men like Burton Barr no longer exist in the process.
It's great that the Star is disappointed with the results of the latest round of reforms. Newspaper editorial writers need to begin to think about the consequences of what they write.
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