I smell a rat, and it smells like James Carville. Hillary sheds a tear; aids talk of dropping out, Drudge predicts double digit losses. Lowering expectations is the oldest trick in the second oldest profession and it looks to me like Hillary is positioning herself to be able to declare victory if her loss in New Hampshire is "only" single digits. She was up 15 points two weeks ago, but she's managing expectations so she can give a "Comeback Kid" speech.
Meanwhile, Obama's victory in Iowa has devastated Hillary, but the fallout in New Hampshire may land squarely on McCain. McCain's New Hampshire base is comprised of Independents, not Republicans and the Independents have are able to vote in either primary.
Conventional wisdom held that Hillary would be so far ahead of Obama that Independents would vote in the Republican Primary and support McCain over Romney. The Democratic race is indeed looking like a rout, but it's an Obama victory. Independents with animosity toward Hillary may take advantage of the historic opportunity to put a nail in her coffin.
If Independents chose to cast their ballot in the Democratic Primary, Obama wins big, and it's likely that McCain will suffer. And speaking of high expectations, it's hard to win big in New Hampshire in 2000 and then spin a second place finish as a victory.
Today's going to be an interesting day.
And a Romney victory keeps him alive and strong enough to contest Huckabee and split the convention. Every Democrat everywhere is hoping for a Romney victory today.
Posted by: The Klute | January 08, 2008 at 01:02 PM
Have you seen the ballet for the Republican primary here in AZ? Holy cow!:
http://recorder.maricopa.gov/media/ballot/Visio-AZ08-1-0006-001.pdf
Same for the dems:
http://recorder.maricopa.gov/media/ballot/Visio-AZ08-1-0006-002.pdf
Who are all of these people on the ballots?
Posted by: Timothy S. Carlson | January 08, 2008 at 01:18 PM
Man, what a twisted piece of rhetorical ju-jitsu.
If Obama wins, it's a defeat for McCain even if he wins in New Hampshire too?
It's a BAD thing for McCain to draw well among independents?
Uh, OK. Keep thinking like that. Don't select the most viable Republican nominee.
Works for Democrats, and works for registered independents like myself.
Posted by: SonoranSam | January 08, 2008 at 01:28 PM
There is so much opportunity for flaws and failure to come forward, Feb. 5th may be a wash in terms of final answers. This talk of sudden death is premature. Even with the compacted primary season, this is not over yet.
Carville has joined the team and that makes it a whole new (old) ballgame. Back to the future.
Posted by: Ann | January 08, 2008 at 01:58 PM
So did the tears help or hurt Hillary's chances?
Posted by: ron | January 08, 2008 at 02:46 PM
I suspect it will be a wash. She's such a polarizing figure that most people made up her mind on her a long time ago. A few fence sitters may be swayed, but some, wondering if a woman can be strong enough to face down our enemies, may see weakness there, and others, wondering if she's as stone cold as some say, may see a genuineness that appeals. So I don't think it's a Howard Dean moment or a Checkers speech.
Posted by: jdleslie | January 08, 2008 at 06:01 PM
How many top tier local talk show hosts
are waving pom poms for John McCain?
Posted by: Nick | January 08, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Now that Sen. McCain has won a decisive victory in New Hampshire and Hillary Clinton won in a huge upset, it's time to get behind our Senator! It's not too late to get onboard the McCain Express! McCain is the ONLY Republican who can defeat Clinton in the General Election. Not to think what McCain's candidacy will do to help Arizona Republican's win seat in both the Congress & State Legislature!
Posted by: Tony GOPrano | January 08, 2008 at 10:38 PM
The same could be said about McCain's campaign!!!! Comeback kid??? He was expected to win N.H. This style of writing is no better than the slanted journalism you attack in the Republic all of the time...
Posted by: azvoter | January 09, 2008 at 03:39 PM
Huckabee will outlast McCain after Romney drops out next week.
Will the blog, Seeing Red AZ support the Republican nominee after Mitt Romney suffers two more defeats this week. Coming third in Michigan and fourth in South Carolina should send a clear message that the "anti-Huckabee", "pro-$50 abortions in Mass." writer of Seeing Red AZ should get behind the leader of the Republican Party, Mike Huckabee.
Posted by: Conservative Majority | January 10, 2008 at 11:09 AM