How Could Nixon have Won?

Media critics love to quote the story of New York Times' theater critic Pauline Kael’s astonished statement in the aftermath of Richard Nixon’s landslide presidential victory, "How could Nixon have won;  I don’t know anyone who voted for him?"  The story is probably apocryphal, but no single phrase better epitomizes how removed the mainstream media is from the rest of America.

Indeed, the journalistic and academic elite still drive their Volvos to cocktail parties and wonder how certain Legislators have managed to get elected...no one they know voted for any of them.  The Arizona Republic wrote the latest chapter in this epic novel of self delusion last Wednesday.

Bills would ease gun rules despite public's concerns

The story is ostensibly about the legislature pushing gun bills in the face of negative poll results.  But the story is really a vehicle for this colloquy with ASU media professor Bruce Merrill.

Bruce Merrill, who has overseen hundreds of Cronkite-Eight public-opinion polls, says Arizona voters voice strong support for gun control, abortion rights and putting illegal immigrants on a path toward citizenship.

"For a very long time, we've had a Legislature in Arizona that is much more conservative on social issues than the electorate in general," he says.

It’s an article of faith among the intelligentsia that Arizona voters are enlightened moderates while the legislature is populated with with drooling ultra conservatives who not only don’t believe in evolution, they haven’t benefited from it. 

However, even a cursory perusal of Bruce Merrill’s poll data indicate an electorate that is oftentimes far more conservative than the legislature.  Incredibly, Merrill uses the example that Arizonans want to provide illegal aliens a “path toward citizenship.”  That may be true, but Arizona voters  have overwhelmingly supported ballot measures that target illegal aliens.  In fact, bills that were never able to get a hearing in the legislature-such as those that restrict illegal aliens’ access to welfare benefits-- were approved by over 70% of voters.   

Voters have now overwhelmingly approved five ballot propositions that target illegal immigrants, and did so despite vociferous objections of all the state’s newspapers as well as the entire congressional delegation.  The only representatives who seemed to understand voter sentiment were Karen Johnson and Russell Pearce.

You may argue that immigration is an outlier, but Merill’s own polls also demonstrate that voters hold other conservative positions as well.  For example, Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Prosecutor Andrew Thomas—pariahs of the left--are supported by over two thirds of the electorate.

How about property rights?  The legislature tried to pass a property rights protection bill in the wake of the Kelo decision but the opposition from the cities was too strong to overcome—so the supporters went to the ballot and won handily.  Voters are more conservative than the legislature on property rights.

Sure, given enough cajoling by the newspapers and donations from corporations, Arizona voters have approved tax increases for education,  public funding for stadiums and money for light rail, but these battles have been hard fought. 

Newspapers and academics underestimate the conservative tendencies of voters at their own peril.  There’s a property tax rebellion brewing in Arizona; in fact, it’s a rebellion so severe that it even scares conservatives.

Academics and publishers don’t understand what it’s like to be unable to sell a home in Maryvale or face foreclosure in Queen Creek yet see your property taxes skyrocket.  Drastic property tax cuts could never make it through the legislature, but they may be approved at the ballot this fall. 

So instead of sitting at the clubhouse at Ancala and complaining that the Primary Election process is filling the Legislature with out-of-touch conservatives, Arizona Republic brass and ASU academics should spend a day at the Department of Motor Vehicles asking people about their property taxes, illegal immigrants, property rights, public stadiums, light rail and gun control.  They may be surprised to learn that the Legislature is actually a moderating influence.

Post Script

The really fun part of the gun bill story is the breathless way that reporter Scott Wong writes it.  I love all these one sentence paragraphs.

And they appear to be winning.

So has the measure that would allow concealed weapons on college campuses.

So are many of the bills targeting gun control.

Technically they aren't one-sentence paragraphs, because they aren't, you know, like, "actual sentences."  When I read the story, I was all like "Dude, buy a verb."

Comments

[NICK]

Bruce Merrill’s entire polling is from cloud nine.

[Darryl Light]

Yet that is why they threw us out of state government, local government and federal government?

I am sorry Greg, but I don't think our soul searching is over with yet. I go to such places and the overwhelming response is yes property taxes are too high but they are not blaming Democrats for it. The blame a Republican government. That is the one part you forgot in this. WE see that Gov. Napolitano is blocking all inklings of reforms, THEY see a do nothing Republican government using a Democrat Governor as an excuse not to do their job. The people can be merciless ...

[Dewey]

"The Governor blames the Republicans, while the Republicans blame the Governor.

"And the natives are getting restless.

"[The Repubic regrets any offense which the use of the term 'native' may have caused the indigenous population. The writer of this story sought to convey the idea that the average Arizona voter is growing restless at the stalemate which currently exists at the Capitol. The Repubic has added new instructions to its manual to avoid using the term 'native' in any sense which may imply irrational violent tendencies among the local populace.--The Editor]

"And the ultra-conservatives are getting restless.

"Respected ASU pollster Juice Peril's latest polling has proven that the average voter does not actually know what is best for himself. 'The cognitive sense that the average voter possesses which gives him a psychological feeling of confidence in his own powers of self-determination have been shown merely to be an artificial construct resulting from inauthentic environmental conditioning,' Peril stated. 'The fault usually lies with the parents.'

"Yet the voters, some of whom own guns, are continuing to make demands of their elected representatives.

"And the storm clouds continue to accumulate over the Capitol.

"Some legislators are feeling increasingly alarmed at the large quantity of mail which continues to arrive at their Capitol offices on a daily basis. 'It is a concern to me,' stated one Democratic legislator who asked to remain anonymous. 'We don't usually get this much mail. I'm even getting mail from places like East Mesa, even though it's not in my district. It's really getting scary.'

"No one is quite sure what the solution to this ominous problem may be.

"But stamps are still on sale."

[Travis]

I am not looking forward to a lot of "citizen legislation". Such legislation can be driven by money from an entity that may not have even the supporters' best interest in mind. There are a lot of initiatives that sound great, but have not been well thought out. Conservatives walk in dangerous territory when they become as reactionary as Dems. Furthermore, this type of legislation is difficult to change should it have unintended consequences.

What we really need is qualified, reasonable citizen LEGISLATORS. The legislative process, if worked on by honest, intelligent persons is the best way to make laws and fix problems. We have too many stupid people in the legislature who swept in because of lies and unreasonable anger ginned up by the opposition.

Wake up Republicans: Find, support and work for these intelligent, qualified candidates, or the mess we have now will look like a piece of cake.

[Scott]

"What we really need is qualified, reasonable citizen LEGISLATORS. The legislative process, if worked on by honest, intelligent persons is the best way to make laws and fix problems."

I think an interesting question is how much of this initiative legislation would have been avoided if the Governor had negotiated with the Republican legislature rather than just vetoing their bills. There is a path around the veto, and it's been used extensively the last few years.

[avenged savant]

The gun rights stuff is unsurprising as it is in accordance with Arizona' libertarian roots.

And I do believe in the public's desire to clamp down on illegals. But I think the public wants it done in a more humane way than some in the legislature APPEAR to.

However, this is a state that has had more openly gay elected officials of both parties than almost any other state. It also rejected the ban on gay marriage that was almost word-for-word the exact same language that passed in Wisconsin overwhelmingly.

Oh, and remember that abortion initiative from twenty years ago? (when I was only eight years old) IIRC, that proposal died with only about 33% support.

The reality is that Arizona is very conservative on some issues and very liberal on others. IMO, it's more liberal overall than conservative. However, because of gerrymandering, the legislature does not reflect this.

[The Klute]

"Drastic property tax cuts could never make it through the legislature, but they may be approved at the ballot this fall."

People just need to take a long look at Mesa to see how a low (or non-existent) property tax works. Mesa's a fiasco. Everyone's for low taxes until the streets are covered in garbage and it takes a year to change a streetlight.

[ron]

And Klute: When the weeds overrun the city of Phoenix city landscaping as they are already doing - and there is no one at the city to go and cut the weeds - watch the screaming begin - and when the potholes at 24th St and Camelback don't get fixed (almost got caught in one this morning) - then listen to the R's eating lunch at Houston's complain about those deep cuts in the city budget.

Lots of people want a free lunch - we need to learn -

TINSTAAFL

ron

[nick]

Janet has a veto pen.

My vote pen works well.
Four ballot measures passed with large percentages.
I will vote for more ballot measures even
if they are a bad method of legislation.

[Chad]

If the AZ Republic were a conservative-libertarian paper more in line with the values of its readers - or former readers - its circulation would probably be growing.

[ron]

Speaking of cuts in the city of Phoenix budget, does anyone know what the total amount of sales taxes we gave away the last number of years to 'attract' business? I am sure that if we had not given away the store, we wouldn't be facing these draconian cuts in service - we may have some cuts, but not in the measure we are seeing them.

[Commander in Chief]

This is so fair and balanced, it makes Fox news look downright fair and balanced. All we have to do is ignore all the examples of voters in Arizona supporting moderate or even liberal candidates or measures. Just talk about, say, four or five anti-immigrant measures that passed and you've proven that Arizona voters are true dyed in the wool conservatives. The pollsters and that dreaded evil force called "the intelligentsia" are hopelessly out of touch with reality.
How could the amendment to ban gay marriage have failed in Arizona? I don't know anyone who voted against it. How could JD Hayworth have lost? He literally wrote the book on immigrant hatred. Don Goldwater, a gun carrying, oops, card carrying member of the Minutemen, couldn't possibly have lost the Republican primary. Len Munsil, with every credential in the world as a strong social conservative, couldn't possibly have lost every single county in the state of Arizona. Matt Salmon, tax cuts to fix our budget crisis? How could Janet get elected governor? Nobody I know voted for her.
Someone's out of touch here, all right. It ain't the pollsters or the intelligentsia, though.