Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

Why Good People Don't Run

Reporters fancy themselves as Woodward and Bernstein.  It's not enough to try to cover day-to-day activities fairly, reporters need to expose scandal, speak truth to power and subvert the dominant paradigm.  However, since stories like Watergate come once in a generation, reporters are left telling breathless stories about Rep. Smith who--gasp--doesn't recycle.

Republic reporter Mary Jo Pitzl has decided that the most important quality in a legislator is consistent attendance, and writes that some legislators have missed votes.  The absurd nature of the story is best illustrated by  this sentence. 

Of the 500-plus proposals up for a vote last year, 20 legislators missed more than a dozen without being excused.

Do the math on that sentence.  Missing 12 votes out of 500 is a 97% voting record.  So 70 of the 90 legislators voted on over 97% of the bills.  But what about the lazy bums who skipped votes?  Did they take the day off for a Spring Training game, sleep late or just play hooky?

No, they missed votes because they were working, but were required to be somewhere else at the time of the votes.  Here's an example.

Sen. Debbie McCune Davis also missed some of those hot-button issues as she was detained in the House of Representatives, trying to salvage her bill to create an immunization registry.

So McCune Davis--who has no control over when Senate bills are scheduled for a vote--walked over to the House of Representatives and tried to salvage her immunization registry bill.  Do you attend every meeting at work?  Or when two meetings are scheduled at the same time, do you do your best to prioritize?  When you miss an HR meeting to attend an Accounting Department meeting are you absent?

Senator McCune Davis decided that her constituents would prefer that she work on her childhood immunizations bill even if she had to miss a vote on the "Offroad Vehicle" bill.   However, Pitzl has decided that McCune Davis's "one duty" is voting. 

To show you how utterly lame Pitzl's story is, here's her example of the WORST record. 

Rep. Jonathan Paton, R-Tucson, missed the most votes without being excused from duty: 39 votes, or 7.3 percent for the year.

But there is a caveat: All but four of his missed votes came on two days last April when he was attempting to travel to a legislative conference in Chihuahua, Mexico. Weather foiled his trip, and he was turned back.

So the WORST example is Rep. Paton who attended 93% of the votes and was on legislative business when he was absent.  Furthermore, the votes clearly would have been excused, so his real mistake was that when he asked the Speaker's office to approve the trip, he didn't also request that his missed votes would be excused.  I bet he threw away an aluminum can when he was in high school too!  Shame on him.

It's no wonder why good people eventually refuse to serve. 

A Republican Year?

Last week, I was enjoying a lunch of Chilean Sea Bass and veal with some Republican lobbyist friends; they were heading over to the Democratic Party Legislative Fund raiser and they nearly choked on their brandy when I raised this conjecture..."you know boys, it looks to me like it's going to be a Republican year." 

Apparently, I'm the only one on the planet who thinks that Arizona Republicans are going to do well this year, so sit back and listen to my story and tell me what you think of my reasoning.

McCain is obviously going to win Arizona, so the national Republican and Democratic parties aren't going to spend a lot of resources on the top of the Arizona ticket.  Combine the lack of outside influence with the fact that McCain energizes the Republican-leaning Independents and moderate Republicans who will turn out in droves, and I think you have the makings for unusually high Republican turnout.

Critics respond that Conservative Republicans will sit on their hands with McCain on the ballot.  But Conservatives would crawl over broken glass to vote against Hillary, and they will certainly turn out to vote against Obama as well. 

So the McCain coattail effect bodes well for Republicans, but there are other factors to consider as well. 

To the surprise and chagrin of Democrats who supported mail in ballots, it is the Republican electorate that has embraced voting by mail.  The "permanent mail in ballot"--in which voters no longer have to request a ballot for each election--goes into effect this year and will benefit Republican turnout even more than the traditional mail in ballot. 

Additionally,  Arizona Republicans may do well in 2008 because they did so badly in 2006.  Governor Napolitano had long coattails; Jim Pederson funded the state Democratic Party, and the electorate was really unhappy with President Bush and the Republican Congress.  Those factors combined to give Arizona Democrats unprecedented gains in 2006.  They won a House seat in District 11 (Paradise Valley and Arcadia).  They also picked up a house seat and Senate seat in District 26 (Oro Valley and North Tucson).  Even with the factors that made 2006 a perfect storm, the margins of victory in those seats were small.  This year Napolitano, Goddard and Pederson are not on the ballot and it's unlikely that Democrats can keep those seats with McCain on the top of the ticket.

Democrats are likely to lose some legacy seats as well.  Pete Rios is leaving the House after approximately 65 years of service.  Republicans have registered over 3,000 voters in his Pinal County district since the last election. 

District 5 in eastern Arizona has become more Republican as well.  The District representation was entirely Democratic in the 1990s and now Jack Brown (originally elected in 1963) is the remaining Democrat.  His last competitive race was 2004 and he only won by about 350 votes. 

Of course, Democrats have made solid gains in places like District 10.  They took out Doug Quelland in 2006 and have their sights set squarely on Speaker Weiers in 2008.

But don't underestimate (or as President Bush would say "misunderestimate") the damage that the Obama/Hillary feud is causing to the Democratic Party.  The Democrats have to give the nomination to Obama--after all, he's earned it.  He's ahead in the popular vote; he's won more states and he's won more delegates.  But with Jeremiah "God Damn America" Wright playing on an endless loop, Obama is not electable no matter how many times he denounces his white grandmother.

The real effect of the McCain turnout factor, the Early Ballot rules and the Democratic meltdown may manifest itself most fully in the Congressional races.  CD 5 voted for President Bush by 17 points.  The Republican nominee--presumably Schweikert--can easily win the district without a single Democratic vote.  Again, the factors that led to last election's Republican meltdown--Bush fatigue, earmark fatigue, corruption fatigue and Iraq fatigue--have been largely eliminated when Bush isn't on the ballot, Democrats control Congress and Elliot Spitzer is "Client #9".  Remove those drags on Republican turnout and replace them with McCain bringing Republican-leaning Independents to the polls and you have quite a swing.

The national media is beginning to factor the McCain effect into their calculations as well.  Here's the Rothenberg Report on the Bee vs. Giffords' race. 

Usually the first race to Congress is the most difficult for a member. But in the case of Democratic Cong. Gabrielle Giffords, this year is likely to be a tougher election fight than was her open seat contest in 2006, when she first won the right to represent Arizona’s 8th Congressional District by defeating a former GOP state legislator who was so polarizing that he lost some of the party’s faithful.

In 2008, Giffords will face state Senate President Tim Bee (R), whose candidacy represents a slice of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy election cycle for national Republicans.

But even though he’s the best candidate Republicans could have asked for in this southeastern Arizona district, he will also face the toughest general election fight of his political career.

And while many of her Democratic colleagues are excited about the potential influence of the Democratic presidential nominee on down ballot races, Giffords is running in the shadow of Arizona Sen. John McCain’s (R) presidential bid, creating an uncertain dynamic in the 8th District.

So let me know what you think.  I'll keep the comments section open until someone questions my parentage or mentions Hitler. 

How Could I be out of Money; I still have Checks Left?

We all know that the state is running a deficit.  So far that's purely an academic exercise, but eventually the state is going to run out of cash. 

State Treasurer Dean Martin is responsible for managing the state's cash and is yelling from the rooftops that it's rapidly going to zero.  Martin has graphed the decline and includes the Governor's assumptions in one of the scenarios.  The Governor has responded that Martin is a "side player" and that his warning is a "political stunt."  I've provided Martin's graph on the left.  Click it to enlarge it. 

Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano acknowledged the state's fiscal urgency while doing her best to tamp down panic.

The state isn't running out of money, she assured. Plans are being negotiated to close the deficit.

Napolitano shrugged off Martin's declaration as political theatrics - "He wants to get a headline," she said - and called his budget projections "simply inaccurate." State agencies have been reducing spending per Napolitano's September edict, according to the Governor's Office.

"I think the treasurer's announcement has the potential of unduly alarming people," said House Minority Leader Phil Lopes, a Tucson Democrat. "Theoretically, we could run out of money. But that's not going to happen. We won't let it happen."

Hiding the Cash?

Here's the most troubling part of Napolitano's statement. 

"The treasurer really has added nothing to this discussion," she continued. "He's making a lot of assumptions and presumptions that are simply inaccurate. He doesn't know, for example, what state agencies are holding in reserve."

Really?  He doesn't know what the agencies are holding in reserve?  State law requires that state agencies bank with the State Treasurer, so if the Governor is claiming that he doesn't know the reserves, she's implying that agencies are violating the law by banking elsewhere.  Maybe she's just trying to make him a "side player."  Perhaps she would like to clarify her statement.  Or maybe she should read the transcripts of Governor Mecham's impeachment proceeding.

The Governor is clearly ticked off that Treasurer Martin has dared to speak up about the issue.   Check out the video on Azcentral

Huppenthal Considers Run for Superintendent

Senate Republican Whip John Huppenthal has confirmed that he is seriously considering a run for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2010.  Huppenthal has had a long and successful career but he's probably most famous for treating Democrat turned Republican turned Democrat Slade Mead as a Pinata. 

(After his loss, Mead switched back to the Democratic Party and ran for Superintendent of Public Instruction and was thumped by 29 year old newcomer Jason Williams.)

George Will on San Tan Flats

PINAL COUNTY, Ariz. -- The government of this fiefdom south of Phoenix claims that when it approved Dale Bell's blueprint for his Western-theme restaurant with an outdoor stage in an enclosed courtyard, it assumed the stage would be used for mimes or poetry readings. Mimes in Arizona scrubland? Poetry at the San Tan Flat Steakhouse and Saloon? The authorities were, they insist, shocked when country music broke out, and they are scandalized because some customers, not content to tap their feet to the Western beat while they eat, get up and dance.

Foot tapping is, so far, still legal in Pinal County. Outdoor dancing is not, at least at a dance hall, and Pinal says San Tan Flat morphs into one at certain points on certain evenings, when customers dance and Bell does not make them stop. He thinks the U.S. Constitution's protection of self-expression encompasses the right to (in the language of his brief to the county court) "sway, shuffle or even dance."

Pinal's harassment of Bell is a small provincial spat, but it illustrates two large themes of our national history. First, democracy requires judicial supervision to thwart the excesses of elected officials. Second, governments closest to the people are -- never mind what sentimentalists say -- often the worst. This is because elected tyrants can most easily become entrenched where rival factions are few.

Read the whole thing.

I Don't like to Pick Fights with Real Lawyers, But...

Phoenix attorney Tom Irvine provided an interesting overview of Arizona gun law in Sunday's Republic, but his conclusion doesn't look right to me. 

On Tuesday, the headlines will blare that the U.S. Supreme Court is hearing the biggest Second Amendment right-to-bear-arms case in history.

Partisans and talking heads will tell us how the future will be either saved or torn asunder depending on the result: "Gun control is anti-American!" "Gun control is a necessity!" The twain shall not meet.

In Arizona, on the other hand, no one need care. The question being taken up by the U.S. Supreme Court - Does the Second Amendment allow people not affiliated with a state-regulated militia to keep handguns and other firearms for private use in their homes? - has been definitively answered here. 

In other words, in Arizona, it does not matter what the Supreme Court says. Let me explain.

Irvine goes on to explain that the Arizona version of the Second Amendment provides much more individual protection than the federal version.  That's true, and it would certainly prevent the Arizona Legislature from restricting guns.  But the case before the US Supreme Court will decided the power of Congress to regulate guns.  If the Supreme Court decides that the Second Amendment is referring to the State Militia--not to individuals--then Congress' power to regulate guns will only be subject to the limits of the Commerce Clause.  (That's not much of a limit even after Lopez.)

Federal statutes preempt the Arizona Constitution.  Arizona has no more power to make gun ownership legal over federal objections than it does to make heroin legal over federal objections.  The gun ban case matters very much to Arizonans.

The Republic Calls the Next President.

Here's a fun little Freudian slip.

Several hundred Arizona Democrats gathered Saturday to select 37 pledged delegates and alternates to represent them at the Democratic National Convention in Denver this year.

"Everyone was just incredibly excited to be part of today," said Emily Bittner, spokeswoman for the Arizona Democratic Party.

Bittner said hundreds of Democrats turned out to select their delegate representatives.
 
The winners will be among the group that will represent Arizona and help select the nation's next president.

Hmm, I thought the delegates were going to pick the Democrat nominee.  It sounds to me like the Republic reporters don't think John McCain has a chance. 

Controlled Substances

Dude, I'm in Salt Lake City.

I was in a full-blown panic because espresso is a Schedule-One drug in Utah, but I was thrilled to see that there's a Duty Free Starbucks at the airport.  Now I'm starting to regret swallowing all those balloons of French Roast. 

UPDATE:

Salt Lake is an awesome city.  It must be the Jazz capitol of the West.  There's a huge church in the middle of town and it has a statue of Louis Armstrong on top. 

The Spiral Steepens

Ouch

Gannett Co. Inc.'s stock fell 5 percent Friday after the company announced its operating revenue fell in February, continuing the downward trend for the media company.

The nation's largest newspaper company, which owns USA Today and The Honolulu Advertiser, isn't seeing any let up in a difficult market for newspapers.

Its operating revenue was down to $528 million in February, a 7.2 percent drop from $569 million in the same month a year ago.

Monthly advertising revenue fell 8.3 percent to $347 million, which includes a 13.6 percent drop in classified revenue to $141 million and a 7.7 percent hit to its retail advertising to $149 million. Those numbers were offset by Gannett's national advertising revenues, which includes USA Today, which was up 6 percent to $57 million.

How Could Nixon have Won?

Media critics love to quote the story of New York Times' theater critic Pauline Kael’s astonished statement in the aftermath of Richard Nixon’s landslide presidential victory, "How could Nixon have won;  I don’t know anyone who voted for him?"  The story is probably apocryphal, but no single phrase better epitomizes how removed the mainstream media is from the rest of America.

Indeed, the journalistic and academic elite still drive their Volvos to cocktail parties and wonder how certain Legislators have managed to get elected...no one they know voted for any of them.  The Arizona Republic wrote the latest chapter in this epic novel of self delusion last Wednesday.

Bills would ease gun rules despite public's concerns

The story is ostensibly about the legislature pushing gun bills in the face of negative poll results.  But the story is really a vehicle for this colloquy with ASU media professor Bruce Merrill.

Bruce Merrill, who has overseen hundreds of Cronkite-Eight public-opinion polls, says Arizona voters voice strong support for gun control, abortion rights and putting illegal immigrants on a path toward citizenship.

"For a very long time, we've had a Legislature in Arizona that is much more conservative on social issues than the electorate in general," he says.

It’s an article of faith among the intelligentsia that Arizona voters are enlightened moderates while the legislature is populated with with drooling ultra conservatives who not only don’t believe in evolution, they haven’t benefited from it. 

However, even a cursory perusal of Bruce Merrill’s poll data indicate an electorate that is oftentimes far more conservative than the legislature.  Incredibly, Merrill uses the example that Arizonans want to provide illegal aliens a “path toward citizenship.”  That may be true, but Arizona voters  have overwhelmingly supported ballot measures that target illegal aliens.  In fact, bills that were never able to get a hearing in the legislature-such as those that restrict illegal aliens’ access to welfare benefits-- were approved by over 70% of voters.   

Voters have now overwhelmingly approved five ballot propositions that target illegal immigrants, and did so despite vociferous objections of all the state’s newspapers as well as the entire congressional delegation.  The only representatives who seemed to understand voter sentiment were Karen Johnson and Russell Pearce.

You may argue that immigration is an outlier, but Merill’s own polls also demonstrate that voters hold other conservative positions as well.  For example, Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Prosecutor Andrew Thomas—pariahs of the left--are supported by over two thirds of the electorate.

How about property rights?  The legislature tried to pass a property rights protection bill in the wake of the Kelo decision but the opposition from the cities was too strong to overcome—so the supporters went to the ballot and won handily.  Voters are more conservative than the legislature on property rights.

Sure, given enough cajoling by the newspapers and donations from corporations, Arizona voters have approved tax increases for education,  public funding for stadiums and money for light rail, but these battles have been hard fought. 

Newspapers and academics underestimate the conservative tendencies of voters at their own peril.  There’s a property tax rebellion brewing in Arizona; in fact, it’s a rebellion so severe that it even scares conservatives.

Academics and publishers don’t understand what it’s like to be unable to sell a home in Maryvale or face foreclosure in Queen Creek yet see your property taxes skyrocket.  Drastic property tax cuts could never make it through the legislature, but they may be approved at the ballot this fall. 

So instead of sitting at the clubhouse at Ancala and complaining that the Primary Election process is filling the Legislature with out-of-touch conservatives, Arizona Republic brass and ASU academics should spend a day at the Department of Motor Vehicles asking people about their property taxes, illegal immigrants, property rights, public stadiums, light rail and gun control.  They may be surprised to learn that the Legislature is actually a moderating influence.

Post Script

The really fun part of the gun bill story is the breathless way that reporter Scott Wong writes it.  I love all these one sentence paragraphs.

And they appear to be winning.

So has the measure that would allow concealed weapons on college campuses.

So are many of the bills targeting gun control.

Technically they aren't one-sentence paragraphs, because they aren't, you know, like, "actual sentences."  When I read the story, I was all like "Dude, buy a verb."