Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

Arizona Daily Star: Right-Wing Mouthpiece

Supporters of the Governor's $42 billion dollar transportation tax increase are unhappy with the way that a legislative committee has described the initiative in the publicity pamphlet.

The proposal would raise the sales tax from 5.6% to 6.6%.  The tax is much more likely to pass if it is described as a "one cent increase in the sales tax," or if it "raises the tax by a percentage point."  However, a one percent increase on a 5.6% base is nearly 18%.

So the legislative committee voted along party lines to include BOTH descriptions. 

"The transaction privilege tax ("sales tax") and the use tax would be increased from 5.6 cents per one dollar to 6.6 cents per $1 (a 17.8 percent tax increase)."

The Republic went so far as the call the description a "distortion."  Never mind that everyone concedes that the 17.8% number is completely accurate.   

The description of the one-penny tax increase is skewed, too, by including a parenthetical notation that it's "a 17.8% tax increase." That's the change between the current state sales tax of 5.6 cents on the dollar and the proposed 6.6 cents. Got that?

Technical accuracy isn't enough. The explanation of the TIME Initiative should be changed so that it's also fair.

So what's a fair way to describe the tax?  How would someone describe the tax if he has an obligation to be neutral? 

The Arizona Daily Star is covering the District 27 race where the candidates are split on their support of the initiative.  Here's how Star reporter Brian Pedersen described the proposal. 

Both Lopes and Cajero Bedford said they planned to vote for the initiative, which would raise the state's sales tax by 17.9 percent — from 5.6 to 6.6 cents on each dollar spent — for 30 years.

Looks fair to me. 

Down and Out in Paradise Valley

There will be eleven initiatives on this year's ballot and perhaps the most controversial will be the Arizona Civil Rights Initiative.  That's the proposal to eliminate affirmative action in Arizona. 

I think most people think that the disadvantaged should get a hand and no one denies that black people got a raw deal in this country--a hundred years of slavery followed by a hundred years of segregation while the Democratic Party systematically suppressed their right to vote. 

Unfortunately, race is an imperfect proxy for disadvantage.  If two kids apply to UA Med School and the white kid comes from grinding poverty, foster care and abusive parents while the black kid's dad is a dentist and his mom is head of immunology at Mayo...it doesn't seem right to accept the black kid for the last spot even though his MCAT score is a little lower.

Today's Republic had a great example. 

Vernon Parker submitted misleading information about his then-status as a federal employee to get his consulting firm certified through a small-business program two years ago, according to a federal report.

As a result of the certification, Parker's company, VBP Group LLC, received a contract worth $1.2 million from the U.S. Small Business Administration.

I'm not concerned about Parker's status as federal employee, I'm wondering why qualified for this contract. After all:

The 8(a) program is intended to help disadvantaged businesses procure federal work contracts.

Disadvantaged businesses?  Parker's not just an ordinary guy, he is a graduate of Georgetown Law School and was the Senate Confirmed Assistant Secretary of Agriculture in the Bush Administration. 

Parker now lives in Paradise Valley.  Dude, the MEDIAN home price in Paradise Valley is nearly a million dollars and 43% of the families in Paradise Valley earn over $200,000 a year. 

And it's not like Parker is some sort of town pariah fighting to be let into the Paradise Valley Country Club.  Vernon Parker is the freaking Mayor of Paradise Valley. 

The reporter did a good job getting comments from Parker.  After all, Parker and his family are vacationing in New Zealand.

If we want to help the disadvantaged, fine, but let's drop the stereotypes and stop using race as a proxy for disadvantage.

Oh, THAT Tax Increase

On Wednesday, Governor Napolitano used her weekly press conference to blast the Majority Rule initiative.  That's the proposal to change the Constitution so that a majority of the electorate has to approve tax increases.  Under the current system, if half of the voters stay home, then 25% of the electorate (half of the 50% who actually vote) can pass a major tax increase.   Requiring a tax increase to receive a majority of the actual electorate makes the process more difficult. 

At one point, the Governor tried to argue that the measure isn't needed and she made this absurd comment.  Fortunately, the Republic's Matthew Benson didn't let her get away with it. 

"I don't know of anybody that's proposed a big tax increase," Napolitano said Wednesday, though she's one of the leading backers of a November initiative to increase the state sales tax by one percentage point. The measure would generate more than $42 billion over 30 years for transportation projects.

Oh, THAT tax increase.

The Governor was obviously thinking of a tax increase for the General fund and she's right, no one has proposed a general tax hike...yet. 

However, the Governor and legislative Democrats managed to roll over the Republicans and pass a state budget that eliminated the state's rainy day fund, swept $340 million from dedicated funds, increased the school rollover by $640 million, borrowed $300 million for school construction and borrowed a billion dollars against future lottery proceeds to build additional university buildings. 

There are two problems with that type of irresponsible gimmickry.  The first is that you can only do it once.  Most of those tricks are one shot deals.  The second problem is that these accounting tricks don't address the underlying problem--approved spending is higher than projected revenue.  The state is facing another billion dollar deficit when the legislature convenes in January.

The only way to balance the 2010 deficit will be to actually cut some spending or pass a massive tax increase.  The Constitution requires a 2/3 vote for the legislature to raise taxes, so the easiest way for the Governor to tax her way out of her crisis was to go to the ballot.  If the majority rule initiative passes, that option will be gone. 

Interesting Article on Phoenix Real Estate

This Wall Street Journal article is interesting.

Soaring home-foreclosure rates, abandoned suburban development tracts and slumping home prices have made Phoenix a symbol of the nation's housing crisis. Now, the Valley of the Sun also can claim a commercial real-estate market that is one of the most badly burned by the residential flameout.

No Quarter

Senator Ken Cheuvront is unhappy with Senator Harper.

Democratic Sen. Ken Cheuvront of Phoenix has asked the Senate Ethics Committee to issue a formal reprimand against Sen. Jack Harper, R-Surprise. Cheuvront accuses Harper of conspiring with other Republican leaders to intentionally break the rules of the Senate by turning off microphones and allowing the Republican majority leader to make a motion in the middle of a debate between Democratic senators.

Cheuvront calls the move, which enabled the ban on same-sex marriage to go to a vote, an "unconscionable" violation of Senate rules.

I was the House Parliamentarian in the early 90s and I'm as unhappy with the decline in civility and decorum as the next guy.  But let me ask this...what did you expect?

Here's a blatant rule violation that Cheuvront himself helped engineer.

Arizona state government employees and retirees will be able to provide their domestic partners with taxpayer-subsidized health insurance coverage under rule changes proposed by Gov. Janet Napolitano's administration and approved Tuesday by a state panel.

When Republicans saw the Copper Card established by executive order, Squaw Peak's name changed by force, the firefighters union boss get an exclusive contract for Arizona Student Loans, the governor amending the benefits statutes by rule while trying to amend bills with her line item veto and then shaking down the home builders for $100k, they eventually realized that team Napolitano isn't playing a game.  The old rules of decency and decorum don't apply. 

Guys like Harper learned early that the media and lobbyists would coordinate with the Democratic Party to defeat him. 

As you can see, Speaker Jim Weiers learned it early as well.  But now the rank and file members understand that Napolitano and her cohorts do not live by the normal rules, and rather than sit back and get pummeled, Republicans are fighting back. 

The crAZy Arizona website was probably the tipping point.  That was the "aha" moment when Republicans finally understood that things have changed fundamentally.  This is no rogue site like the one used to bring down Toni Hellon.  This site is officially sponsored and funded by the state Democratic Party. 

Here's another example of the new world order--corporate money from local chamber types and lobbyists used to fund thinly veiled hit pieces in swing districts.  It's probably completely legal but it's not the same old game. 

This isn't about policy to team Napolitano; this is personal.  While some Republicans have long understood that there will be no quarter, other's came to that realization much later...but come to it they did.

So file your ethics complaint.  File a thousand ethics complaints, write a strongly worded letter, but until the current administration starts living by the rules, those complaints might as well be filed in a circular file.

Arizona politics is fundamentally different than the days when Art Hamilton sat down with Mark Killian or when Burton Barr sat down with Alfredo Gutierrez--fundamentally different and fundamentally worse.

It didn't have to be this way and I wish is wasn't this way, but this is the way it is.

GO4 It

I must have missed the memo, but it appears that the Republic has switched its website to a format called GO4.  Maybe I'm wrong about the technical aspects and someone who can recognize the GO4 platform will correct me in the comments section, but the bottom line is that I can't find anything. 

Where's Viewpoints and La Voz?  I have La Voz marked as a favorite, so I can still find it using an old link, but I have yet to find it on the new website.  And I've given up finding Viewpoints. 

I'm sure that some technician somewhere could instantly point me to the sites that I can't find, but a website shouldn't need a help desk and I'm at least as web savvy as the average reader.  If I can't find it, the average reader has moved on to Drudge. 

Without access to Viewpoints, I could lose the bet. 

You see, I'm betting that Viewpoints editor Joe Garcia is going to include Sandy Bahr's blog posts nine out of ten weeks for the entire year.  The Republic has dozens of bloggers and they are supposed to rotate, but Joe is so far to the left that he thinks all the other bloggers are "Conservative" so he feels compelled to run Sandy Bahr's column every week to provide "balance".  I'm betting that he will run her blurbs 40 times this year.  So far I'm on track. 

And what about La Voz? I predicted last November that it could be in trouble and last January, I reported that there was a rumor that it was closing.  The January rumor was obviously wrong, but I made it clear at the time that it was simply a rumor and that I was trying to verify it.  I wouldn't have posted the story if La Voz had returned my phone call, or even denied the rumor when I called them initially. 

However, I still think that my fundamental analysis was solid, and in today's Republic, we learned that:

KNUV-AM (1190), also known as La Buena Onda, will sign off July 31, but the station has begun phasing out much of its programming. Its signature Enlace call-in show aired Monday for the last time.

The story featured this prediction:

"We will see more Spanish-language publications and media outlets closing because it's a tough economic environment," said Ricardo Torres, chief executive of Latino Perspectives magazine in Phoenix.

Couple that with the fact that Gannet Blog is reporting that the Fort Meyers News Press and the East Brunswick Home News Tribune have shuttered their Spanish sections indicate that Gannett may be rethinking its strategy to penetrate the Spanish market. La Voz' days may be numbered after all.

But that's not the really bad news.

You see, I am not a casual follower of Arizona News.  I have clients who expect me to know what is happening in Arizona. Most of what I learn is from original coverage--I attend the meetings, interview the participants and track the websites.  But I'm also responsible for knowing what's in the major papers.  Since I'm missing stories on the azcentral, I've had to, well, you know...subscribe.  I'm sure the reporters are laughing right now.

But I bet that I'm the only azcentral reader who said "golly, I can't find anything on the Republic's new website, so I'm going to call them and subscribe."  My guess that everyone else just moves on.    I wonder what those July traffic figures look like?

Working on the Fundamentals

An initiative prohibiting same-sex marriage will once again be on this November's ballot and you will once again hear the argument that the amendment is unnecessary because same-sex marriage is already illegal in Arizona.  Here's an example from a June 7, 2005 Republic editorial.

Supporters of the amendment say the lack of a specific ban on same -sex marriage in Arizona's Constitution leaves the state open to the kind of court ruling that allowed such unions in Massachusetts.

But the Arizona Court of Appeals upheld the state law banning same -sex marriage in 2003, and the Arizona Supreme Court subsequently declined to review that decision, thus allowing it to stand.

This mantra "already against state law and upheld by the court" while technically accurate, is intentionally misleading because it implies that the courts have reached a final decision. 

However, here is the actual language from the Standhardt case to which the editorial refers.

First the court summarized the Petitioner's argument.

Although marriage traditionally has involved opposite sex partners, Petitioners contend that this tradition, like other before it, must crumble under our evolving understanding of liberty.

The court went on to address the standard of review and other technical issues and then included this sentence in its conclusion.   

"Moreover, although many traditional views of homosexuality have been recast over time in our state and Nation, the choice to marry a same sex partner has not taken sufficient root to receive constitutional protection as a fundamental right."

That phrase "not taken sufficient root" is judicial code talk for "the state's not ready yet."   After all, "taking root" is an ongoing process and forms an integral part of "our evolving understanding of liberty" to which the Petitioners referred.

In the future, supporters of same-sex marriage will argue to the courts that same-sex marriage has indeed become "sufficiently rooted."

Even now, supporters are preparing by planting and watering those roots.  For example, Governor Napolitano provided additional "roots" when she offered domestic partner benefits to state employees.  If more cities and businesses begin to offer domestic partner benefits or if the legislature confers some of the benefits of marriage to same-sex couples, these will be further indications that same-sex marriage has become "sufficiently rooted" to be enshrined in our Constitution. 

Contrary to the claims of the media and other opponents of the initiative, the court has actually put the state on notice that it is ready to strike down the statute when the time is right. 

You may support the initiative, or oppose the initiative, but don't be fooled into believing that the courts have already decided the issue. 

CBS on Why Napolitano won't be Veep

Here's a good point.

Most importantly, don't choose somebody whose name is going to sound funny with yours. This is why Obama should not choose Arizona's Governor Janet Napolitano: Obama-Napolitano sounds too much like a coffee drink ("I'll take a venti Obama Napolitano with soy, thanks") or like a Rosemary Clooney song ("O-ba-ma, O-ba-ma Na-po-li-taaaaaa-no!").

Williard Did It

The State Democratic Party has not yet awakened to the fact that it's in charge of Arizona.  Despite six years of executive control and significant influence--punctuated by periods of total dominance--in the budget process, state Democratic officials (and their media enablers) seem oblivious to the fact that they set the agenda--and bear the responsibility for the functioning of state government.

The Republic's story about inadequate gas pump inspections provides a good example.  I pointed out here that the underlying story was silly, but I thought this was an interesting quote.

"Only one state, Texas has less frequent gas-pump inspections than we do," said Sen. Robert Miranda, D-Phoenix.

Miranda said the Legislature cut funding for Weights and Measures in the 1980s and it increased the time between inspections because of the loss of inspectors.

The 1980s?  The Mecham administration? Weights and measures is an executive agency, and Governor Napolitano has controlled it for the last six years.  She sends a budget to the legislature and while they don't rubber stamp it, she is the most dominant single policy setting force in the budget process.  All of the budgets bear her impression and the most recent budget, for example, was entirely hers--supported by every Democrat with enough moderate Republicans to make a majority.

Speaking of Mecham, when the Arizona Republic was impeaching him over irregularities in his financial disclosure forms, Mecham claimed that his brother Willard filled out the forms and that "Williard did the best he could."  The excuse was so lame that Mecham's opponents printed thousands of bumper stickers that said "Williard Did It."

Governor Napolitano has now controlled every executive agency for six years.  If there are problems with Weights and Measures, Child Protective Services or the state Veteran's Home, the media can't allow legislators to whine about budget decisions that were made 25 years ago.

When Governor Napolitano was first elected, she made much of the fact that she had "inherited" a billion dollar deficit and that the state was near the bottom in education funding.  Now that she has been in charge for six years, I wonder how she's doing on that deficit and funding situation?

We know the answer.  The state is facing a two billion dollar deficit and sky rocketing debt.  The cash is gone, the funds have been swept and Arizona is still nearly last in education funding.  Oh, and the gas pumps aren't getting inspected on time.

When you hear the excuses, just remember...Williard Did It.

This Says it All

For months, Arizona Democrats have been claiming that they can take over the State House of Representatives.   I've looked at the races district-by-district and I don't see that they have any chance.  I think this paragraph by Mary Jo Pitzl says it best.

As for the Democrats, most of their energy is focused on the Nov. 4 general election. Party officials say they will make a serious play to take control of the state House of Representatives, something they haven't done in more than 40 years. They will need to protect all seven seats they gained in 2006 and add four more.

Good luck with that.