TIME Off

The good folks over at the Maricopa County Recorders Office have finished the first pass of the TIME Initiative sample and the failure rate is 49.1%.  The number will improve a bit on the second pass, but clearly not enough to save the initiative. 

So TIME needed just over 153,000 valid signatures, and they turned in just over 258,000.  The Secretary of State eliminated nearly 20,000 signatures in the initial vetting.  Of the remaining 238,000, half of them are bad.  So the final estimate is that they have about 119,000.  The number is probably a little higher because the invalidity rate is lower outside of Maricopa county, so a good guess is that the actual number is about 123,000. 

If the sample had indicated that they had collected 145,000 (95% of the requirement) the Governor's legal team could probably have saved them.  But nobody can save an initiative that's this far off. 

(The 49% failure rate is astonishing and the consultants who run initiatives don't factor a number like that into their plans.  Some consultants (Stan Barnes for example) went for a belt and suspenders approach and built in a huge cushion.   In fact, most of the initiatives can tolerate an above average failure rate.  However, the Arizona Civil Rights initiative had a fairly low safety margin and certainly wouldn't be able to handle a failure rate in the 40% range.   Liberals may end up with a silver lining.) 

Comments

[Poison]

But at least they won their lawsuit last week! They got some judge to strike the language about it being a 17.8% tax increase. A lot of good that will do them now.

I have an idea. Since we won't get to vote no on this initiative, maybe those of us in Maricopa County can vote no on Judge Edward Burke instead, assuming he is on the ballot.

[North Valley Republican]

This is the best news I've heard in a long time - pun intended.

The arrogance of these guys was beyond bizarre. They will have to re-examine how they work in the future. Maybe they will include the Legislature and some conservatives and some down-to-earth citizens. Maybe. But, not likely

Thanks for keeping us updated.

[RepGroe]

This news brings a bright spot to the day. Most of my local elected officials are still salivating after a visit from Richard Travis of ADOT brought news of $$$$ and possibilities.

[Senator Ron Gould]

Don't count the Governor out yet. Remember she makes up rules as she goes along. Since the Legislature lacks intestinal fortitute, they let her get away with it.

[JaneAZ]

Actual quote from a petition-gatherer who approached me:

"I don't care if you already signed it, sign mine. I need the money. Nobody's going to check."

I wonder how many people fell for that.

[todd]

I had the same experience as JaneAZ with a number of petition gatherers for various initiatives. I wonder if this year the invalidity rate will be higher for all initiatives?

[Special Agent Johnny Utah]

How does this sort of thing happen? I thought these people were professionals. This is like a pro QB forgetting the play and throwing a pick as a result.