"Paton's Place" or "How Green is their Valle"

I have had quite a bit of feedback about my predictions that it's going to be a Republican year in Arizona.  I think Republicans are going to pick up two seats in the House and one seat in the Senate.  The Democrats argue that, in the House for example, they are going to keep all six seats that they won in 2006 and pick up four more. 

Today's Republic lays out the Democratic strategy.

In contested GOP primaries, the more conservative candidate prevailed in races from Anthem to Tucson. That makes for more striking contrasts with the Democrats, many of whom have been carefully groomed to strike a moderate tone.

This strategy looks great on paper.  Run high quality candidates and groom them to appear moderate in comparison to their conservative counterparts.   I think the best way to debunk this strategy is to spotlight an individual race. The Star had a similar article a few weeks ago and highlighted District 30 as one of the "Hot Races."  So let's look at the District 30 Senate Race.

Republicans have a 13 point advantage in the Southern Arizona district that includes Green Valley and parts of east Tucson.  Senate President Tim Bee currently holds the Senate seat and State Representative Jonathan Paton and Democratic newcomer Georgette Valle are vying to replace him. 

On paper, this district fits the Democratic strategy perfectly.  Paton is Conservative and Valle served in the Washington State Legislature for 24 years.

That's about as far as the Democratic strategy gets before it falls apart.  Check out this debate that the candidates held at KUAT in Tucson. 

About a minute into the clip, Valle talks about how important water issues are to the people of...Washington.  She corrects herself even before she finishes the word, but the debate goes down from there. 

Paton points out that the collapsing state budget is the most important issue facing the state and when asked to respond, Valle says that we should wait to tackle the budget because she has already started on her Christmas shopping.  I thought she was joking, but she continued to argue that the state doesn't need to work on the budget now because she wants to wait for the economy to come back.   Later she makes a bizarre assertion that we could raise revenue by "capturing the football teams that come to Southern Arizona." 

Then she opines that the legislature shouldn't go into special session because "It was 28 Democrats and 4 Republicans who passed the current budget, so I think we should give the economy a chance to catch up a bit."  Of course, there are only 27 Democrats in the House so she's already optimistic about the Democratic chances.   

Perhaps more troubling than her complete lack of understanding of the budget--or her knowledge about how many Democrats are in the House--is her inability to finish an answer.  Several of her responses simply trail off or ramble on until the reporters are forced to interupt her. 

Don't take my word for it.  Here's what the Tucson Citizen said about Valle.

Georgette Valle, the Democratic contender, also has a deep understanding of state government - Washington state, that is. She served 24 years in the Legislature there.

Alas, even while campaigning for the Arizona seat being vacated by Tim Bee, Valle continually says "here in Washington" and "you people in Arizona" and "your budget." She gives the impression that she's not an Arizonan.

More worrisome, she seems to have no grasp of the restrictions on our lawmakers.

Paton on the other hand has served four years in the House, and one tour in Iraq.  He is responsible for the CPS restructuring bills, drafted the law that targets human smuggling and even wrote the bill that allows cage fighting. 

Here's what the Republic said about Paton's Cage Fighting bill on Sunday.

With the new legislation, the state will have an opportunity to cash in on big-money live gates that follow these cards around the nation. There already is a built-in fan base here because Arizona is one of the top pay-per-view markets, according to promoters.

So we have the 37 year old Iraq war vet who is an expert on key issues, has a record of accomplishment and has represented District 30 for four years.  He's being challenged by an 83 year old from Washington who wants to wait and see if her Christmas shopping fixes the budget and doesn't know how many Democrats are in the state House. 

That's considered a "Hot Race" even though Paton has a 13 point registration advantage.  Factor those facts in the next time you hear that the State Democratic Party fielding candidates who have been "carefully groomed to strike a moderate tone."

Comments

[Chandler Catholic]

Isn't the "hot race" in 30 the House race?

[Mr. T]

Your entire argument here is a straw man. Neither of the articles you mentioned -- the Republic or last week's piece in the Star -- mention the district 30 senate race as a possible "hot Race." The Star article centered on the District 30 House race, mentioned the D-26 race for the House, too.

Why, then, did you pick this particular Senate race as your example of why the democrat plan for the elections this year is not going to work?

[Steve F.]

Gotta love clean elections. 60k in taxpayer money is being used to prop up this halfwit who's going to lose...badly.

Delenda est Clean Elections.

[jmoritz]

I took my daughter to this debate and it was her first one. It was a good lesson in appropriate behavior since every time Valle opened her mouth, my daughter wanted to laugh and soon learned to control it. I agree with Steve. Clean elections has done nothing but allow nut jobs access to public funds.

[Erich]

So, to Mr. T and Chandler Catholic, the Democratic Party isn't supporting candidates like Valle? That's odd, because the District 30 Democrats have been aggressive in trying to help her. Greg's right that on paper this should fit exactly with what the Democrats are saying are winnable races: conservative vs. "moderate" in a district that Democrats seem to think they can pick up seats in. They have indicated that 30 was one of those districts they could be successful in. Valle is someone who did not think of this race on her own. She was recruited by the county party. Now that she's proving to be embarrassing to your party, you probably don't want to admit it. The Democrats should be ashamed of the fact that they are backing someone who--even by the standards of the liberal Tucson Citizen--is completely clueless as to how government functions. Meanwhile, Steve is right that she is sucking up our tax dollars through Clean Elections for this quixotic run.

[PeoriaVoter]

One has to suspect that Clean Elections dollars are being diverted from inadequate candidates such as Valle in creative ways, for the purpose of Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts and other party-building functions. It pays to have even an empty suit run, as the Democrats have discovered.

[Mark]

Was she drunk?

[Darien]

Clean Elections. There's a system that needs to GO AWAY. The Solar Team??? Please. Everyone running is for solar. At least the R's put their pictures up and don't make you think they're Irish... Clean Elections Voter Guides should demand photos for the candidates.... http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/2008-09-18/news/sandra-kennedy-and-sam-george-used-the-clean-elections-system-to-their-advantage-so-why-was-it-so-hard-to-get-team-solar-to-talk

[Erich]

You're right, PeoriaVoter, but we can't let Democrats get away with trying to pretend that these candidates are not an embarrasment to their party. More imporantly we need to make it clear that the larger meta narrative that the Democrats have an army of bright, "moderate" candidates to defeat "extreme" conservatives is a lie.

[Vanessa]

Clean Elections should be ashamed of themselves. They keep leaving out Sandra Kennedy's picture from the voting guide. Something should be done. Can you investigate it? I feel so bad for her.

[Jim Torgeson]

I don't see a problem here. This candidate has the same view of the budget as the Governor. :)