Throw the Bums Out

A few months ago, we thought that Iraq would be the big issue of the campaign, then it was gas prices and now it's the financial meltdown.  The future is hard to predict, and elections are especially difficult.  I have my theory that McCain helps Arizona Republicans this year.  However, I must admit that I seem to be one of the few Republicans who subscribes to the theory.  Nathan Sproul certainly doesn't.

My early predictions about the decline of the newspapers and the effects of Clean Elections were right on the money.  I was the only one who called Lane over Manross in the Scottsdale General Election and I took some grief from the other Republicans for predicting that Schweikert would win the District 5 Primary. 

But I completely missed the Republican debacle of 2006.  I've also always underestimated Harry Mitchell.  I didn't think he could beat Gary Richardson for the State Senate seat and I didn't think he could beat J.D. Hayworth for the Congressional seat. 

That's why I was somewhat hesitant when I received a call from a pollster a few weeks ago.   If you are nice to a pollster for about 20 minutes, they will give you a lot of information.  This women wasn't technically taking a poll, because she was part of a team that was calling all of CD 5.  But she was clearly part of an organized effort because she was calling from out of state and she had been calling voters in the north east the prior week.

She wanted to know what of thought of George Bush, Dick Cheney, Janet Napolitano etc.  She eventually got to the key question.  What about Harry Mitchell?  David Schweikert?  She had quite a few follow up questions about the individual candidates and I was honest with all of them.  Including pointing out that I was the Best Man at Schweikert's wedding.  I asked her how many homes she had called.  About 500.  They seemed to be split among the parties, so I asked her how Mitchell was doing.  She said "oh, not good, there are a lot of people mad a Mitchell."  In fact, she said that of her 500 people, nearly 70% had a negative view of Harry Mitchell. 

I didn't write about it because it's not scientific--she could have just been calling, say Fountain Hills and North Scottsdale.  She also knew that I was a Schweikert fan so she could have been exaggerating.  But I tucked it away in the Pundit Partials list.

For the last few weeks I've been hearing rumors that the internal polling has been going well for Schweikert and Bee.  Again, it wasn't scientific and I had to consider the source, so I didn't write about it.  Then rumors started appearing that polls not connected to the campaigns showing the candidates within the margin of error.

Then this website popped up.  The author claims to have a poll in which Schweikert leads Mitchell by five. Hmm, talk about anonymous source.  I don't know who published the site and I don't know the details of the polls.  But when you add up my experience with the pollster, plus the the general rumor mill and consider the anonymous the website and then factor in the panic buying by the DCCC...

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent upwards of $1.66 million on the state’s three competitive seats. And when spending from other Arizona districts is factored in, Democrats have spent $2.06 million in the Grand Canyon State, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

Eventually, you begin to see a pattern. And the pattern doesn't look so hot for Harry. 

The poll also has Bee within three points.  I think that's likely to be accurate as well.  After all, the latest DCCC commercial is so outrageous that even Bee's opponent has decried it.  That's not the type of commercial that you run when your candidate is safe.

Of course, incumbents rarely lose, so I don't think that Schweikert and Bee should be measuring any curtains.  But this is an odd year.   Remember when politicians were concerned that consumers would revolt over $4 gas?  That's about the time that Congressional approval ratings hit single digits. Let's see what voters do when $2 trillion disappears from their retirement accounts.  Voters have seen nearly 20 years of gains wiped out in two weeks.  That's going to get somebody's attention.

Giffords and Bee get the double whammy because they are incumbents and Democrats.  Being a Democratic incumbent this year is a problem because the Democrats are in charge of Congress, but I think it's also a problem because  even Saturday Night Live understands that the financial mess is a Democratic crisis. Here's another nice little reminder of the origins of the crisis. I think if you ask the average voter why their retirement account is gone, they are going to mention Nancy Pelosi, Barney Frank, Bill Clinton, the Community Reinvestment Act and of course, Fannie, Freddie and Franklin Raines.  (For a full background on the Democratic Party and ACORN sparking the contagion, check out this article in today's New York Post.)

Does that translate into a "Throw the Bums Out" mentality that could upset Mitchell and Giffords?  I don't know, but when you add up the anecdotal evidence of the polls, panic buying by the DCCC, basement level Congressional approval ratings--and in Schweikert's case, a 14 point registration edge--it's beginning to look like voters may be planning to dump the incumbents come November.  After all, if your house is upside down, your 401K is underwater and you are hearing rumors of layoffs, it's no time to give the new guy another shot.

Comments

[John Huppenthal]

At the start of the great depression (1931), the democrats in Congress increased the maximum income tax rate from 24% to 63%. This little known economic fact isn't part of the mythology of the great depression. Doesn't exactly fit in with the story line of government saving the day.

When I tell people that Obama's plan is to bring back the tax rate of the great depression, they are absolutely shocked. It's not mild shock, it is physical recoil as though grabbing voltage.

In fact, when you tack on all of the taxation from the direct income taxation and social security, the medicare kicker and state income taxation, the maximum taxation burden on a dollar of profit for a small businessman will be significantly higher than the maximum taxation burden of the great depression.

The McCain and Schweikardt camps have done a great job of getting us in the ballgame but they ought to at least focus group/poll test this message. It has never failed to shock people when I tell them. It certainly seems to be a more potent, timely message than what is being delivered now.

[Andy]

You probably want to change the 1st sentence of the 2nd to last paragraph to: Giffords and Mitchell get the double whammy

[Patrick]

This is not a throw all the incumbent bums out election. This is a throw out the Republicans election. No chance Mitchell and Giffords lose. In fact, I will say right now that AZ's delegation will be 6-2 in favor of the Democrats when this is all said and done: Kirkpatrick and Lord will win too.

[Jack Woods]

Schweikert has a very good chance at winning.

Bush won the state in 2004 by nearly 10 points, John McCain will win AZ by at least 15 points for obvious reasons.

Mitchell won in 2006 by the skin of his teeth in a Democrat tsunami against a very polarizing Republican. He won't have that advantage again.

CD 5 has a 14 point Republican registration advantage, and at the top of the ticket will be Republican John McCain that will win in that district by around 20-25 points.

Add that to the fact that the DCCC is completely wasting large sums of money on Bob Lord's race, who has absolutely no chance to win, when they should be shoring up Harry Mitchell.

I would be terrified if I was Mitchell right now.

[Jim Torgeson]

I won't blame Harry for our troubles, but I cannot support a man who is deceitful in his voting practices and most certainly don't want a "Mr. Nancy Pelosi" holding office.

[ron]

Hidden in Sunday's paper is the treatment of Christians in Iraq. The 'surge' is collapsing as the election is moving toward November 4. Christias are fleeing for their lives. Increased deaths of Iraqis and Americans in the last couple of weeks are not on the radar nor front page of the paper.

[todd]

Your predictions may turn out true but I think there are a couple of other readings of things to think about.

Most of the people I have met that I have been really angry at Mitchell, besides a few GOP loyalists, have been liberal Democrats. Many think he has rolled over for Bush on things like FISA and the occupation. I doubt they will vote Schweikert.

Factually, the current financial mess is a bi-partisan affair and I actually think people understand that. I know conservatives have been trying to push this whole - we are in this crisis because liberals gave loans to poor people garbage - but I don't think people are buying it. While it is pretty equal in terms of blame, I think it sticks more to Republicans because of the clear lack of oversite and the de-regulation (which many Dems supported as well).

[JaneAZ]

In 2006 I received at least 10 pieces of direct mail from Mitchell. This time around, I've only received one.

Doesn't feel like he's very concerned about losing the seat.

[Queen of Hearts]

Duh, JaneAZ, Mitchell is, instead, spending millions on TV ads! He looks VERY concerned to me!

[MK]

While on the topic of Harry Mitchell mail: my wife has received two Pro-Harry pieces sent by the AZ Dems. Funny thing is, we live in Shadegg's district.

[Bill]

Well Greg, you're right on at least one thing, your analysis is not very scientific. What you call "panic buying by the DCCC," most people would call "shock and awe" or a "show of overwhelming force." Democrats are doing to Schwiekert and Bee what Republicans did to Ellen Simon and Paul Babbitt in years past -- completely obliterate them before their campaigns get off the ground. When you factor in the candidate spending, Democrats have probably spent around $8 million on four "competitive" Arizona House races; Republicans, maybe $3 or 4 million? Shadegg is the only one who has a prayer of avoiding the tsunami.

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[The Klute]

I dunno, my girlfriend got a piece of direct mail that solidified her vote last night - the "Schweikert's virulently anti-choice" ad.

Chalk up another central Scottsdale CD5 voter for Harry!