How's it Going to End?

I made it clear in a previous post that I believe Conservatives would be smart to put Governor Brewer's tax increase on the ballot.  In addition to being permanently labeled "Governor Brewer's Tax Increase", the 18% increase in the sales tax is likely to go down in flames.  Then, once voters have made it clear that they want less government instead of more taxes, Conservatives will have the moral "high ground"--so to speak.

I'm sure you will be shocked to learn that my "strategery" has been ignored and the proposed tax increase has maybe 12 votes in the Senate and perhaps 28 in the House. 

So what next?  Well, the Wall Street Journal has an observation.

Ten states were scrambling Monday to pass budgets before a Tuesday deadline, with a handful -- including Arizona, Indiana and Mississippi -- facing the possibility of partial shutdowns if their legislatures don't act in time.

(I've always wondered why we are on so many lists with Mississippi, but that's probably for a different post.)

What happens next?  My guess is that  Bob Burns is going to send her the budget that the legislature passed on June 4th, and she's going to veto it.  

Dude, that would be so awesome.

In order to avoid a government shutdown, Appropriations Chairmen Russell Pearce and John Kavanagh will have to write a series of ongoing resolutions to fund "essential" services.  Of course, "essential" services--DPS, the lower courts and prisons--are the only thing that some Conservatives think government should be funding anyway.  So every month or so, Pearce and Kavanagh will get together over lemonade and decide what's "essential" for the following couple weeks. Since I think that Pearce and Kavanagh have a pretty good outlook, I'm sure I'll be happy with the results.  

Senator Steve Pierce told an ATRA meeting a a few weeks ago that the legislature should pass a "monthly" budget.  It looks like he might get his way. 

Meanwhile, Governor Brewer could take a page out of the Team Napolitano playbook and veto the June 4th budget over and over at a series of mock veto sessions.  You remember those sessions in front of the Teacher's Union, SEIU and gay rights organizations...you know, the guys who will be circulating Terry Goddard's Gubernatorial nominating petitions in a few months. 

The other option is for Bob Burns to go to the Democrats...Ha, I slay me. There are a bunch of reasons why that won't work.   First, there are certain anatomical differences between Bob Burns and former Senate President Tim Bee that make it unlikely that Burns will pass a budget with the Democratic Caucus and a few moderate Republicans.

Second, nearly all the Republicans who joined with Democrats in previous budgets got wiped out in their very next primary.  That's one reason why the legislature is so Conservative now.  So there are fewer moderates available to cross over, and those who do consider it know that they are likely to be reactivating their real estate license if they take the plunge.

The final reason the Burns and Adams can't use Democratic votes to put the Governor's tax increase on the ballot is that the Democrats hate the Brewer tax increase more than the Republicans do.  It's not like Burns can take a few moderate members of his caucus and join with the Democrats to put a one cent sales tax on the ballot.

So the sales tax increase isn't going onto the 2009 ballot and if Governor Brewer wants to veto the June 4th budget bill and then meet with Russell Pearce every couple weeks to decide what is "essential," she's welcome to do so, but there's nothing that Burns and Adams can do about it.

Meanwhile, what about next year?  Republican leaders will admit privately that they have no idea how to balance the 2011 budget.  They are out of gimmicks and they don't have 16 and 31 to refer a tax increase to the ballot or to cut enough spending to legitimately balance the budget.

So what happens in the next 24 hours?

The best that the Governor can hope for is to demand a series of fixes in the trailer bills, sign the budget that Republicans have already passed, establish some sort of study committee to solve the 2011 crisis, give the legislature a month off and then call them into special session to begin work on 2011. 

It ain't pretty, but it's all that's left.

Comments

[Name:]

AZ Constitution, Section 6: "The university and all other state educational institutions shall be open to students of both sexes, and the instruction furnished shall be as nearly free as possible."

If it's not possible, it's not possible.

[col.smeag]

Why even leave it up to the voter the State House has a very good feel of what the voters want right now. They want the days of the boom back and the majority of Conservative votes in Arizona understand that you don't raise taxes in a recession. Right now we need to cut spending and start throwing around some corporate tax credits for expansion and job growth. Try to bring in some heavy hitter corporations and get the wages up in this state.

[Thane Eichenauer]

Central planning hey, just throw out some corporate tax credits, ya?

The cities have been doing such a great (lousy) job at that they are beating companies back with a bat these days (not).

Corporate welfare is sickening. I hope that the lessons of this economic contraction will take root in the minds and pocketbooks of Arizona and grow the idea that the economy is not a tinker set for government economic development staff to fiddle with to the benefit of the lucky businesses and to the detriment of the rest of us.

[RsMantra]

I read a great book the other day. "Trickle Down Realities" by I. P. Daily.
Must...(cough, cough) cut...(cough)...taxes.....aaaahhhh!

[Ryan]

If you know you inevitably have to raise taxes in 2011 since you can't possibly cut enough, why not have the guts to do it now and get it over with? Bunch of spineless idiots down there.

[onehorsetown]

What has killed our budget is all the money that Janet Napolitano allocated to programs for illegals. Think of all the $$$ that goes to healthcare, education, prisons and jails for illegals. They got home loans and car loans for items they had no intention of paying for. We give them all the perks and still they cannot pick themselves up.

[Thisjustin]

The tax increase SCR just failed in the Senate Rules Committee on a vote of 1-5.