Speaking of Shut Downs...Updated: Effect on the Republic

The Wall Street Journal has the lateston Gannett.

Gannett Co., the largest U.S. newspaper publisher by daily circulation, will cut between 1,000 and 2,000 jobs out of its 41,500-person work force in response to continuing revenue declines, according to a person familiar with the company's thinking.

So why does ASU have a fancy new Journalism School?  Seriously, those kids might as well spend $60,000 learning Fortran or Morse Code.  There are no new journalism jobs and those thousand journalists who are going to get laid off next week--together with the thousands laid off before them--are going to be chasing the few PIO jobs that are out there. 

Frankly, I think there's a bubble in higher education.  Back when full-time tuition was only a few thousand dollars a year, college was a good transition and the fact that perhaps 60% of degrees had no direct economic benefit was tolerable.  But now that an undergraduate degree costs closer to $60,000 and provides the same job prospects that high school graduates enjoy, students (or their parents) will eventually respond to price signals.  At that point, there won't be much need for that fancy J school. 

UPDATE:  The Last Days of the Republic

I spent so much time on my J School soap box that I forgot to answer a fundamental question raised by the layoff announcement--how will it affect the Republic.  I want to be somewhat conservative here, but it would appear that the effect will be rather large.

We don't know exactly what's going on because Gannett is so secretive.  (Remember that the next time the Republic calls for more "Transparency.")    

I'm estimating that the Republic layoff will be in the range of 150.  Here's how I think the numbers will play out.  If Gannett cuts over 1,000 jobs out of its workforce of 41,000 that's about 3%.  Since the Republic has about 2400 employees, a pure across-the-board cut would eliminate about 70 positions at the Republic.  So that's the base estimate.

There's some confusion among various sources, but most sources agree that USA Today will be spared any layoffs.  That's bad news for the Republic because while USAT is Gannett's largest paper, the Republic is second. 

The Republic is also in one of Gannett's hardest hit markets.  Compounding the misery is that Gannett has already closed down the Citizen, so the corporate office can only further reduce its Arizona exposure by going after the Republic.

Arizona is also Gannett's hardest hit location.  The real estate cycle is longer than the traditional business cycle so the Arizona advertising market collapsed earlier, sank deeper and will be down longer than other markets.  Those factors don't bode well for the Republic.  So my guess is that we are going to see about 150 layoffs. 

Of course, this is simply the latest in a long series of layoff stories.  The Republic's business model is unsustainable, so it's not like it's ever going to stabilize at a profitable number. 

Comments

[Carol]

The Journalism school is not the only thing that is bigger and better at ASU. Every time I go over there, I'm blinking in amazement over all the new construction. Somewhere, burried in there, is the school I attended. It would definately take a map to find.

[Fascist Nation]

Don't look now, but azcentral appears to be down. (5:15AM 7/1/09) Gannett forget to pay the ISP?

[Gould still doesn't get it.]

Or law school either- too many lawyers, sucker!

[ron]

Bachelor degrees are what High school diplomas were 20 years ago.

[ron]

I think tuition should be tied to projected income of the graduate. Lawyers and heart surgeons would pay the highest tuitions. Teachers on the bottom end.

[Happy]

Actually, I think there is a lot skills you learn in j-school that can easily apply to many other fields: How to search for facts, how to write concisely, how to interview people, how to find information, how to use equipment, the list goes on...Not to mention all the knowledge you soak up reporting on government, crime, education, health.

As for the price, well, yes: I think it was overpriced. Having to pay for school yourself hits the pocket a little hard, but I did loved taking all those terrific hands-on courses in the new building. And the faculty was top-notch.

[EdFoster]

Last I saw, the unemployment rate for high school grads was double that of college graduates. That's one good reason to get a degree.

I only hire college grads. There is an actual difference in critical-thinking ability. In fact, I got my last guy directly out of ASU's J-school.

We do all computer-, Internet- and digital lifestyle-oriented writing. My ideal job candidate is a journalist who builds his or her computers. (If you fit that, get in touch.)

Went to the D-Backs game with a Republic reporter on Sunday. (I never saw a team make so many errors and mistakes as the Diamondbacks. No way is that major league ball.) He said layoffs were coming next week. He is simply resigned to the ax falling eventually.

Maybe the fancy J school was planned before the cold winds blew. The destruction of newspapers came on pretty fast. The guy I hired just likes to write. He never intended to make a career of newspapers.

Eventually, if there are no jobs, kids will do something else. Then, they'll move the extra space in the J school to the History Department!

[onehorsetown]

Remember "investigative journalism"? When done correctly, people sit up and take notice. When done thoroughly, it keeps people honest. There is no one minding the store.

[ron]

Ed,

Recent statistics are that in the current recession the ratio of persons losing jobs was 2 to 1, high school grads to college grads about 5.5% to 2.4%.

[EdFoster]

Guy called me from the newsroom. Message from Gannett this morning said layoffs would be July 9.

In the meantime, enjoy your 4th of July weekend!

[Dennis Apache Junction]

ASU is just doing what every other school is doing.

Making it available only for those who can afford it.

Funny how the University seem to have all kinds of money?!?!

Wonder why?

And ASU being one of the crappiest school with a poor graduate rate and not too mention one of the highest rated party schools in America every year.

Oh yeah, just like all day kindergarden but for big liberal babies...

[Jay]

Wow, you really think transparency in private business compares to transparency in government. Sorry, it's just not logical. Gannett doesn't have to tell you how it operates, except in limited cases. The government does - because we own it. Now why don't you let what's going to happen, happen - and then report on it. Like, you know, a journalist.

[christena]

Thanks for using this .,.,.,.

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Christena
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