Viene la tormenta!

In the last few lines of the original Terminator the kid with a camera says "viene la tormenta!"  Sara Connor asks the gas station attendant to translate and he says "there's a storm coming."  Connor responds with an understated "I know."

Let me tell you right now.  Viene la tormenta.

Last year I was the only one who predicted that Arizona Republicans would have a good year--even predicting that we would gain two seats in the House and one in the Senate. 

I was the one who predicted that Clean Elections would wipe out the moderate elements of both parties, leaving the legislature dominated by "progressive" Democrats and Conservative Republicans--when I served in the House, there were 33 Republicans, 16 of whom were self-described moderates.  There are now 35 Republicans in the House, but after a series of devastating defeats, the number of moderates is around three or four. 

This year, Republicans are likely to make gains nationally--but that's because they are starting from such a small base--the real storm is going to be in the Arizona Primary.  

It seems like every Republican I talk to mentions that the class of 1994 botched it.  Republicans were in charge and governed like Democrats--spending, earmarks, steel tariffs, prescription drug benefits and protectionism. 

The new schism in the Republican party is not Conservative or Moderate, it's Conservatives who are part of the establishment versus conservatives who are part of the resistance and it looks to me like McCain, and  to a lessor extent even Shadegg and Brewer, are vulnerable in Republican Primaries.

I keep coming back to the date of the 2010 Primary--August 31st.  I don't think Arizona has ever had a Primary that early.  That means that all the early ballots will have to be gathered in July and August...that's the worst possible time to hold a primary.   

There may be as few as 200,000 Republicans vote in that Primary and Rob Haney is likely to be personal friends with a third of them.  All of them will be unhappy. 

I was elected to the House in 1990 (defeating an incumbent) amidst a voter backlash against higher taxes and public stadiums.  I was there in 1992 when ongoing economic turmoil and the US House check cashing scandal devastated incumbents nationally--and Jay Rhodes locally.  I was there for the Republican Revolution of 1994 when Clinton's hubris, a Democratic Congress and Hillary Care led to massive Democratic defeats and gave the House and Senate to the Republicans.  Then I've watched 15 years of Republicans getting really comfortable in Washington. 

Eighteen months into a deep recession, the electorate is angry and scarred.   Now with Obama in charge, Republicans who I talk to are looking for a different type of leader.  The "Big Tent" is just code talk for "gaining power by sacrificing your ideals."   Been there, done that.  They want a revolution and the current crop of incumbents look like yesterday's revolutionaries...and we all know that yesterday's revolutionaries are today's establishment.

In the original Terminator, Judgment day was August 29th 1997.

This year it's looking like Judgment Day will be August 31st 2010.

Comments

[Juan Martinez]

Republicans do their best at the ballot box when they embrace conservatism. Whenever we try and placate people that are never going to vote for us anyway, we lose.

Look at McCain's results, this was the Republican we were "supposed" to pick, the one that had all the "street cred" with moderates. He was a maverick Republican that was embarrassed by his party that took delight in slamming other Republicans at every opportunity. Look what ended up happening.

It wasn't even close, McCain was destroyed. For other examples, see Bob Dole and Bush Sr. It's a myth created by the media that the more liberal a Republican is, the more popular they will be.

Candidates that ran as conservatives against liberalism, like Nixon and Reagan, won historic landslides. When Newt Gingrich created the conservative Contract with America, Republicans took back Congress for the first time in 50 years.

Republicans are at their best when they're unapologetic conservatives that are able to expose liberals for what they truly are.

[Dewey]

"Get out."

[Bill]

A conservative tidal wave, if it happens, will make it really tough for pro-choice Republicans like Tom Horne: http://sonoranalliance.com/?p=4398

I still think McCain won't have much of a problem. However, Greg has a really good track record when it comes to making political predictions. If I were McCain, I'd be working hard and leaving nothing to chance.

[Steve]

One thing us Republicans must account for and take note of though is this "circular firing squad" going on within our party. It doesn't matter who gets elected in some primaries, if we don't get it together, the Dems will take enough seats to take control.

[PW]

Nice to hear Reagan and Nixon cited, but they were not lifelong social conservatives; plus, both cut deals with Democrats so they weren't hardline partisans either; both were ardent free-traders so they weren't protectionists either. But today's conservatives seem to view anyone who isn't socially conservative, partisan, and anti-globalization as a RINO or a socialist.

Poll after poll after poll shows that the anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-climate change action planks hurt the GOP with people under 30, hispanics, and moderates. No one should suggest abandoning principles, but to win elections parties and candidates have to highlight the principles that voters agree with - and that's where the Beltway Republicans joined hands with social conservatives, and jumped off the political skyscraper.

The Bush Deficit and the hardline on social issues have taken the moderates out of the GOP 'can-win' category, the former fact suggests the GOP isn't really responsible, the latter that it isn't reasonable (as in, willing to work with others, which is part of being a democracy).
So if the GOP wants to win and grow, it has to focus on the principles that it shares in common with moderates - which is not the same as "moderating one's principles".

Here's a short list of principles GOP and moderates share:

Anti-partial birth abortion, 69% (ABC News Poll, Jan 22, 2009)
Very concerned about the deficit, 59% (Washington Post/ABC, Feb 23, 2009)
Pro-gun rights, 73%, (USA Today/Gallup, Feb 27, 2009)

Here are where the GOP loses moderates:

Support for stricter environmental laws, 83% (RCP, June 11, 2009)

Immigration and gay marriage issues cut near the 50/50 divide - so why do Dem's pick up moderates (even those like Obama who are anti-gay marriage)? Tone and perceived importance of issue.

Winning candidates calmly state their position on 50/50 issues and then go back to talking about issues they win on. Conservatives are way too focused on 50/50 issues, to the extent that they use them as litmus tests within the GOP itself.

The revolution that the GOP needs is a revolution that begins with the term RINO being banished - I'm not saying trade principles for a broader base, I'm suggesting that ideological purity tests on your own people are a losing proposition. There should also be a massive GOP condemnation of the right-wing extremist homicides - the law & order history of the GOP makes that easy.

After that inoculation, the revolution should be on the above issues, non-stop. Leave the name-calling (i.e, "socialists") out of the debate.

On issues where the public doesn't follow (i.e., climate change) focus on the costs and the GOP's ability to be reasonable and to minimize the collateral damage to our economy and our freedom.

Remember that tone matters - so stick a sock in Rush's mouth, tell Beck to go back to stand up comedy, and bring back the RINOs by talking about the issues that Reagan and Nixon embodied.

Remember that Tip O'Neill and Reagan were friendly, and disown anyone who even alludes to violence against fellow Americans (elected or otherwise).

[Bill]

Steve - Republican primary voters have a right to select candidates who share their policy priorities. What you call a 'circular firing squad' is actually democracy in action.

[PW]

Here's another GOP issue: School choice. 60% support it. (Friedman Foundation).

[Johnny]

Juan I love the citing of Reagan... The guy compromised to get things thats why he was so popular nationwide.
THe guy signed an amnesty bill!! Something that everyone on this blog would chastice him for.
He agreed to a $165 billion bailout of social security
Reagan raised taxes in 1983 with a gasoline tax and once more in 1984, by $50 billion over three years, mainly through closing tax loopholes for business.

So you say stick to your pinciples and then cite people like Reagan, maybe you should learn your history first. The people who compromise get what they want and are remembered as heroes. Just look at Ronald Reagan.

[todd]

I predict the GOP will lose at least one Senate seat and at least a few in the House. Yes, I know this normally does not happen but one has to look at the current situation of moderates running like hell from the GOP. No doubt many GOP party faithful and tea-party comrades are angry and scared but this does not apply to the electorate as a whole. Responding by purging moderate candidates from the GOP will just exacerbate this.

[Brad Smith]

"Juan I love the citing of Reagan... The guy compromised to get things thats why he was so popular nationwide.
THe guy signed an amnesty bill!! Something that everyone on this blog would chastice him for.
He agreed to a $165 billion bailout of social security
Reagan raised taxes in 1983 with a gasoline tax and once more in 1984, by $50 billion over three years, mainly through closing tax loopholes for business.

So you say stick to your pinciples and then cite people like Reagan, maybe you should learn your history first. The people who compromise get what they want and are remembered as heroes. Just look at Ronald Reagan."

What a dumb post. No one, either conservative or liberal would classify Reagan as a moderate Republican.

As far as raising taxes, in the aggregate he lowered taxes substantially.

Reagan got 90% of what he wanted passed, in both foreign and domestic policy. Whatever compromises he made along the way to get there were worth it for the eventual payoff.

[Commander In Chief]

La tormenta ha llegado.

"Candidates that ran as conservatives
against liberalism, like Nixon and Reagan, won historic landslides."

The key term here, folks, is "historic." Abe Lincoln and FDR won historic victories, too. Reagan won his huge landslide over Jimmy Carter in 1980 by winning 55 percent of the white vote. Carter dominated non-white voters, but in 1980 losing 55 percent of the white vote put him on the losing end of a landslide. In 2008, McPalin won 55 percent of the white vote. Enough to put themselves on the losing end of a landslide.

The storm has already arrived. We're not living in 1980 anymore. We're not even living in 2004 anymore. Welcome to the present, Republicans. You don't seem to get it. You're not living in Ronald Reagan's America anymore.

"It doesn't matter who gets elected in some primaries, if we don't get it together, the Dems will take enough seats to take control." WILL take enough seats? Welcome to the present. The storm has come and gone. Sorry you missed it.

"This year, Republicans are likely to make gains nationally." Wow, that's big one. A whopper right up there with "Obama is unelectable no matter how many times he disowns his white grandmother."
Republican incumbents giving up seats in Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Kansas. David Vitter defending a seat in Louisiana, Jim Bunning in Kentucky. Likely to make gains nationally? Viene la tormenta otro vez. Bienvenidos al presente. Dos mil y nueva. Disfrute el viaje.

[Steve]

Bill- You're confusing civic discourse and intra-party discussion with the civil war that is going on right now. People that aren't normally engaged will continue to take notice which will harm Republicans in the long term.

Brad- the Governor has proposed basically what Regan did and has been skewered for doing so. THAT'S exactly what I'm referring to.

[Mesa Republican George]

The GOP is doomed. There are too many sabateurs on board. The real decision is, get out now or go down with the sinking ship.

[Johnny]

Brad Smith

Thank you for proving my point no one would dream of calling Reagan a moderate. He is the model of core conservative values but he COMPROMISED to get this done and this party does not seem willing to compromise on anything right now and that is why it is in trouble for years to come.

[This was your best shot at the budget? Do the math CPA!!!]

The last three guys are spot on.

There once was a republican party I used to be a member of, but that party managed to leave me behind.

Now, as an independent, I vote against the clowns that insist on the purity of the party.

How do you devour an elephant? One bite at a time.

The Nancy Barto's of the world wonder why they have smaller and smaller turnouts for the precinct work.

Um, maybe 'cause they are narrow minded and intolerant.

You reap what you sow.

This fiasco with the legislature versus A CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR shows your destiny is as an ignored minority party.

Embrace it!
Chris Simcox for Senator?
Ya just have to be kidding.
Phil Gordon, who I can't stand, is more qualified. Too much idiocy from the sonoran alliance, etc.