Bowers to Run in CD 1

Sources confirm that former Senate Majority Leader* Rusty Bowers will soon announce that he is running for the District 1 Congressional seat currently held by Ann Kirkpatrick. 

Like any race, the most important considerations are the math and the issues.  I think Bowers is strong on both.  Let's start with the math.  In 2008, Sydney Hay lost to Ann Kirkpatrick by about 45,000 votes.  That equates to a 16% loss in the worst year for Republican Congressional candidates since Watergate.

 Conventional analysis would say that Bowers starts with Hay's base and then adds the folks who voted for change but have been put off by the Obama/ Reid/Pelosi troika.  Then let's speak the unspeakable--all other things being equal, LDS constituents will support LDS candidates.  District 1 has a huge LDS population and many of them are Democrats. 

That's the conventional wisdom and it's OK as far as it goes, but that's not why you pay the big bucks to read Espresso Pundit each day...Ok, I digress.  The real issue is turnout.  Check out the two charts. (click to enlarge.) 

Hay received more votes in 2008 (nearly 110,000) than Renzi received in 2006 (under 106,000).  Hay's vote total would have prevailed in 2006.  She lost because an extra 75,000 people turned out to vote and most of them voted Democratic.

Who were those people?

They're young, idealistic Obama supporters who aren’t going to vote in 2010.  Those voters aren’t coming back to the polls in a non-presidential year and they sure as heck aren’t coming back without Obama on the ticket.   Forget about the fact that independent voters and moderates of both parties feel like they were sold a bill of goods with Obama’s “change” mantra.  Forget about the Bailouts, nationalizing the auto and health care industries.  Forget about Cap and Trade and the other environmental restrictions that are reminiscent of the restrictions that have already devastated rural Arizona.  Forget about the radical environmentalist forest policy—"keep it pristine until it all burns".   Forget about the percentage of the electorate who—like Bowers--are 4th or 5th generation LDS Arizonans.  Focus on turnout.  The extra 75,000 young idealistic voters who showed up to vote for Obama aren’t going to be there in 2010.  In 2010, CD 1 is a Republican seat.

Of course, we can't ignore the issues completely.  There are a few that will be important.

First, let's start with the red Herring.  "Golly, Bowers doesn't live in the district."  Hmm, No Cigar.  Bowers has lived in the same home for decades and it has variously been in and out of the district.  So in 1992, when he was elected to the Legislature, Karan English was his Congresswoman.  They both represented constituents in the District.  Following English's defeat after one term, Hayworth became Bowers' Congressman until Bowers' house was redistricted out of the District in 2002.  Now his house is in Flake's District.

Bowers was raised in Chino Valley near Prescott and has roots in the District that go back four generations.  It would be pretty tough to characterize him as a carpet bagger.  He has owned a home near Globe for about eight years and will presumably re-register and declare the Globe home his primary residence. 

The point is legally irrelevant because Congressmen don't have to live in the district that they represent.  However, a true carpet bagger (like Renzi) has to make a case to the electorate that he should be elected anyway.  Bowers won't have that problem. 

Then of course, there's the environment.  Kirkpatrick will try to portray Bowers as the great dismantler of the protections that generations of environmentalists have been pushing since the days of John Muir.  But Bowers isn't so easy to pigeonhole.  Check out this Phoenix New Times article from 1997; Bowers was on the cover and a framed issue hangs in his office. 

State Senator Russell Bowers is best known for his archconservatism, his assault on environmental regulations and . . . his fine art?

Indeed, the professional sculptor doesn't fit the narrative. 

Besides, I think north eastern Arizona would appreciate a referendum on modern environmental policy.  Let's talk about Goshawks--hunted in Europe but "endangered" here.  Let's talk about families whose grandparents used to work in saw mills, but whose kids work at Starbucks serving Lattes to the  Maricopa County residents who spend weekends at their cabins in the pristine forests that have become their playground. 

Actually, the race won't be a referendum on the environment, it will be a referendum on Barack Obama.  It will be referendum on perfectly good American Cars--better than the ones most people in District 1 drive--being destroyed and replaced by Japanese imports.  It will be a referendum on Wall Street Salaries, Global Warming, GM (Government Motors) and national healthcare.

And it will be a referendum on constituent service--which is why the RNCC will run the last 30 seconds of this video a couple hundred thousand times and the phrase "What a Nitwit" will resonate throughout the district.  Because, frankly, when many of the residents of District 1 look at Congress, they must shake their heads and wonder if indeed, they are all nitwits. 

In fact it seems like Kirkpatrick would be wise to buy the domain name "WhataNitwit.com"

Oops.  Too Late.

To be sure, incumbency has its advantages; that's why there are so few one-term Congressmen--except of course, Jim McNulty, Karan English and Sam Coppersmith.  But the issues, the momentum and the math look good for the challengers in 2010--especially in District 1. 

*Footnote:  Rusty may be most famous for the time he served as the so called "Senate Majority Leader" but the highlight of his legislative career was obviously his stint as Vice Chairman of the House Government Operations Committee during the time that I served as Gov Op Chairman. 

Comments

[Falcon9]

Plus, he's just an all-around good guy. Gracious to a fault, uplifting even in the most difficult situations, a personality that invites others to join with him even when they disagree with him. Smart, articulate, seasoned. An ideal congressman. Let's all get behind him and help.

[Travis]

I LAUGHED OUT LOUD! Great grab on the domain name!!!

[Benson]

A true statesman and a class act.

[That Guy]

Funny you should mention the LDS Democrats...I happen to be one who was born and raised in CD1. My family roots go back five generations on my mother's side in Yavapai County and six generations on my father's side in Pinal County. I guess I know what district to run in when I make that step. :)

Rusty is a decent guy, but I don't think he has it in the bag.

[prm]

Thanks for speaking the unspeakable......now can you go one more step and ask all those LDS Dems what the hell they were thinking when they voted for Obama? Like how do they reconcile their religious beliefs that are opposed to abortion and a president that not only openly supports it but wants us all to pay for it?
Let's hope you are right and the LDS Dems in CD1 vote based on the candidate's religion and not party.

[Doug]

Outstanding analysis. Right on the money.

[Thane Eichenauer]

I am wondering what Mr. Bowers' position will be on the Iraq/Afghanistan occupations and the insane War on Marijuana/Cocaine/Heroin/Meth.

P.S. I am the Eichenauer mentioned in the 2008 results above. I wonder if the 1.3% hard core pro-legalization pro-peace (and strong self-defense) voter block is worth appealing to.

I'd say that Maupin's 3.4% was the disgusted with the status quo Republicans or Democrats vote. That makes 4.7% of the voters who are willing to vote for solutions that aren't found in the current Democrat and Republican playbooks.

[Thane Eichenauer]

P.P.S. I don't live in CD-1 and never lived in CD-1. I openly told people that I didn't live in CD-1, but asked that they didn't hold it against me. I don't think many people minded much (well except for the 98.7% who didn't vote for me).

[State Senator Jack Harper]

Does he have a small fortune to invest? That is the key to winning an open primary. Rick Renzi and Trent Franks were/are excellent social conservatives, but it took their own money to get past the primary opponents. (I guess in Rick's case, it might have been the "policy holders" money)

[Bill]

We like to give Jack Harper a hard time but sometimes he hits the nail on the head.

[Joe Don Brown]

Some interesting comments here. I encourage folks to take a look at Beauchamp’s growing list of endorsements on his website http://www.beauchampforcongress.com and to take a look at his speech last night in Flagstaff at the National Tea Party Express. It can be viewed here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04gwwKWiHS8

If you watched Greta tonight…you’ll notice Deborah Johns holding HR 3200…that’s Bradley’s copy from last night. Deborah asked for it after Bradley spoke last night. Dana Perino also used Bradley’s camel in the tent analogy from his speech this evening on Hannity. National folks are starting to pick up on Bradley.

[That Guy]

prm...you must be one of those people that thinks you have to be an R in order to be a good member of the LDS church. That's unfortunate.

[RonB]

But can he sing?

[Fred the Piano Tuner's Son]

He has also played bass with the band Shades of Thyme.

[Haoqi Chaozhi]

He also had two children on volleyball scholarship at Yavapai College in Prescott and two other children on choir scholarship at Eastern Arizona College (both schools in the district). He might as well represent the state - he surely doesn't fit the carpetbagger stereotype.

[John]

Kids at two different two year colleges within the district are ancillary points when you consider everything else...his Arizona roots, his prior public service, etc, etc. Bowers isn't a carpetbagger, ESPECIALLY in the Rick Renzi sense. Bowers has a house in the district, but the bottom line is, you don't have to reside in the district you represent.

[Spencer Curtis]

I have had a chance to live by Rusty Bowers for the last 6 years and I am very impressed by him, He is always there for people when called on for help, he is full of charity. He will live and die by his value system and not be swayed on his beliefs or be bought by any lobbiests, district 1 should be honored by the fact that he wants to represent them! We need more people with his experience and courage to stand up for whats right. He's a great American and is a great example to all of us.

[Veritas Vincit]

"District 1 has a huge LDS population and many of them are Democrats. "

And those Democrats vote Republican most of the time. By the by, its Navajo, Graham and Apache counties with the "huge" LDS voter base. The big prizes in CD1 are Yavapai and Coconino.

The unity of the northern half of the district (Yavapai and Coconino) however could be disrupted if the LDS counties throw in with Pinal as a "southern block" versus the "northern block"

The real question is; Is the RNC impressed with any of the 3 candidates yet? Or are they recruiting for a ringer as they did when they imported Renzi to the district in 02?

[Lawrence Mellor]

I have only met Rusty Bowers once, but I am impressed. I didn't see anything on this blog concerning his relations with the Latino population. On the day that I heard him speak Spanish to a church group, it was enough to melt your heart. I hope that he will take advantage of this talent and his compassion toward the Mexican-American, because I believe that he could win over this large and influential AZ group with his magnetic charism, if he would speak to them in Spanish

[Aloneoffice]

Corporate Arrange,name university disease shut because rock entire herself all sequence reject entry couple cheap attempt duty hardly people average performance morning until only approve wear employment information independent objective complete energy under peace face wonderful temperature find generation characteristic nobody driver share in finger sister prisoner walk seat climb essential another profit winner far leaf department satisfy institution device creation excellent care last strength within seem expert hotel live ignore planning remember primary officer week volume process may will serve male worry above campaign chief length count correct gun servant occasion own