How's Your Aspen?

Here's sad news.

Northern Arizona's aspen trees are dying in ever-increasing numbers, tearing holes in the blankets of color that spread across the high country each autumn.

The tree deaths have mystified scientists, though the list of suspected causes is long: drought, disease, insect infestation, wildfire suppression and even the grazing habits of elk.

Forest policy in the United States has been a disaster--which is why I lean libertarian.

Let's face it, after one hundred years of forest "management" we have no idea how to manage a forest.  I grew up watching Smokey the Bear commercials between episodes of Fat Albert and Johnny Quest and indeed for many decades, fire suppression* was all the rage.  Eventually folks figured out that they were simply keeping the forests pristine until they burned to the ground in a massive conflagration that destroyed every seed and caramelized the soil. 

Now we are at least beginning to admit that we have no clue how to manage a forest.  That's because forests, although fairly discrete, are actually complex systems that are well beyond the human capacity to fully understand or manage.  There are too many variables, too many unintended consequences.  It seemed logical to suppress fires--in fact, every management solution seemed like it would improve the system, but each one led to unforeseen problems and then the logical solutions to those problems created unforeseen problems and this morning we read that 95% of the aspens are dying and we simply have no idea why.

Which naturally brings me to the economy.   

Forests are too complex for man to effectively manage but they are small and simple when compared to the economy. 

Managing the ENTIRE economy is like, totally out of style.   Folks figured out that if you want to actually manage a whole economy, you have to have a lot of control over the populace and when the pesky peasants resist being moved to collective farms, you have to shoot them--you know, for their own good.

Well, a lot of folks tried to manage entire economies in the last century and with persistent cheer leading of the western intelligentsia at newspapers and universities managed to wreck quite a few economies and kill 120 million people.  So that's out.

Now the intellectual elite and the Western Intelligentsia just want to manage sectors of the economy like health care, energy, the financial system--and, similar to forest management--they don't want to actually run the whole system every day, they just want to come in a critical times and re balance it, or prop it up here and there. 

Well, forests are small and simple when compared to the entire economy and they are small and simple when compared to mere sectors of the economy. 

Nationalizing an entire economy takes a totalitarian framework--plus the New York Times acting as cheerleader.  Fortunately, most of those--including the Times--are severely weakened or gone.  We are left with a Republic in which the working coalition of the Democratic Party wants to nationalize 40% of the economy and the working coalition of the Republican Party wants to nationalize 30% of the economy.  All your Tea Parties, Cable TV Mania, health care protests and general acrimony are actually a debate between those two rather narrow visions.

So the next time you read about national health insurance, financial bailouts, economic development or "stimulus" money, ask your self this question.

"How's your Aspen?" 

Footnotes:  For an excellent analysis of complex systems, read Michael Chrichton's (of Jurassic Park Fame) thoughts here. 

If you are looking for a great story about fire suppression in Arizona, read Fire on the Rim by Steven Pyne. I originally picked up "Fire on the Rim" because I thought it was a history of Los Dos Molinos, but after my initial disappointment, I discovered that it was a wonderful book. 


 

Comments

[Dewey]

Universal health care for forests. What could go wrong?

[Winnie]

Wes Gullet took a gang of us to Molinos years ago. I am a hot-food foodie, and I ordered accordingly. I have not been within a mile of that place since.

[NotOnTheListOfJohns]

Wow! The comments were turned off on the Desert Divas entry. That's OK. I can compliment you here. It was very informative. Thanks for being persistent.

[RP4512]

Where where you 10 Trillion dollars ago? By the way Ron Paul is putting a book out called, "End the Fed". Both Dems/Reps are responsible for the debt that the little ones are inheriting.