Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

I See a Scandal EMERGEing

Dana Marie Kennedy is challenging Sal DiCiccio for the Phoenix City Council.  Normally it's tough to take on an incumbent, but Kennedy has instant credibility because she's the Director of Emerge Arizona.

Our mission is to identify, educate and inspire Democratic women who want to pursue elective office at the local and state level in Arizona.

DiCiccio for his part thinks that Kennedy and Emerge are a bit too close.  In fact, it looks like Emerge has morphed into a campaign committee disguised as a non-profit.  Since non-profits can take corporate contributions and since they themselves are actually corporations, the IRS doesn't appreciate it when non-profit corporations morph into campaign committees.

So DiCiccio has filed a complaint with the IRS.   I'm sure Kennedy will say that the complaint is purely political, but even a glance at the packet shows that the complaint isn't frivolous.  Here's a screen shot of one of the key pages.

 

Let's Be Friends

Ok, I know I'm a bit behind the curve, but I'm beginning to appreciate the power of Facebook.  Kyrsten Sinema gets my award for making the best use of the platform and as one of her thousands of friends I'm getting a steady stream of updates about her book tour and appearances. 

On the Republican side, I think Len Munsil probably has the best organization, but John Munger is the Republican who uses the medium most effectively.  He does a great job promoting events and giving a heads up about his upcoming media appearances.  Naturally, David Schweikert--who was a Geek before Geeks were cool--uses the platform well.  He has nearly 2,000 friends, but what I find interesting (he would say "fascinating") is that he and I have nearly 400 shared friends.

So if you are interested in politics, want to eliminate the middle man and don't already have a Facebook account, sign up for one and if you do have an account, look me up and hit me with a friend request. 

Deal or No Deal?

The Arizona Daily Star is offering a buy out. If this announcement follows the traditional pattern, employees will be offered a buy out and if management doesn't meet it's target, they will follow up with a layoff.  The severence package for those who are laid off is usually arround half as generous as those who take the buy out. 

Here'e the full text of the announcement.

Star Employee Announcement -
Dear Arizona Daily Star colleague,

We are announcing a voluntary workforce reduction program for Star employees who meet certain eligibility criteria. This voluntary program is available to all positions in our newsroom, with the exception of reporters. Only a limited number of volunteers will be accepted from each department.

Eligible employees will meet the following criteria:
• Regular full-time or part-time employment status, working 20+ hours each week;
• Completed 5+ full years of service for Star pension vesting;
• Qualify for the Star pension benefit plan as of Oct 31, 2009 (55+ years of age).

Eligible employees approved for the program will receive:
• A severance package that includes two weeks of pay for each completed year of service (maximum of 26 weeks) in exchange for signing a severance agreement;
• Severance paid bi-weekly for the duration of the period, less any applicable taxes or withholdings;
• Participation in the 65% government subsidy program toward the cost of COBRA for up 9 months to subsidize medical coverage, based on the elected medical plan and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) eligibility guidelines.

If we receive more than an acceptable number of volunteers in a department, we will select employees based on length of service. While we prefer to avoid reductions, it may become necessary to consider an involuntary workforce reduction if we do not receive a sufficient number of volunteers.

If any employee wishes to inquire about the program details, please contact Kelly Acevedo, VP Human Resources, at 573-4252. The deadline to submit a written application to Kelly is 5 PM on Wednesday, October 28, 2009. We will review the applications and meet with the approved employees on November 5th and 6th, with that Friday as the last day of work.

Sincerely,
John M. Humenik
Publisher & Editor

Now THAT'S a Typo. Update: Howie Responds

Supreme Court Justices Scalia and Breyer traded barbs at a University of Arizona forum on Constitutional Interpretation earlier this week and not surprisingly Howie Fischer who writes, like, five stories a day for the Star and Tribune was there.

Immediately after the event I got a frantic email from a friend who said that Howie falsely claimed that Scalia said he would have dissented in the landmark anti segregation case of Brown v. Board of Education.  It turns out that Scalia said he would have dissented in the 1896 "Separate but Equal" case of Plessy v. Ferguson.

Since it was obviously a mistake, Howie's not a lawyer and the paper issued and immediate correction I let the issue go.  However it's gone national, so I thought you might be interested. 

Update: Howie sent me these emails yesterday.

just for the full record if you'd like to give the full story to your readers, the version about scalia and brown v. board of education went out in an early version that the trib put online.  a writethru moved about an hour later but by that point, given the nature of the internet, the thing had gone viral. so no actual print newspaper (including the trib) ran the incorrect version.

and, since i know you're always interested in how this stuff happens, i actually was monitoring the "debate" on the web which, of course, is plagued with drop outs and such.  after knocking out a quick first version, i went back over the section and concluded that it was equally possible that scalia, in discussing how getting to a "right" result didn't justify court rulings. was talking about plessy v. ferguson (the original separate but equal case). that led to the writethru.

i certainly am to blame for putting the info out in the first place without going back over my tape more carefully. but in this age of getting things posted quickly -- something you know about -- sometimes things slide through.

still, as you point out, i'm doing several stories a day. so i would stack up my "error ratio" against virtually anyone else in the business.

-- howie

I then responded by asking Howie if it was OK to print his email and this was his response.

up to you whether to add my comments to your post. you're free to do so if you want. i just wanted to go beyond the simple "a correction was made" explanation (or, speaking of errors, as you wrote it, "the paper issued AND immediate correction) to show that the thing wasn't left out there til someone pointed it out.

also, just for the record, i sent an apology to scalia through the supreme court's press aide.

-- howie

Why Can't they Just be Honest?

The real test of character is how someone handles adversity.  After all, we all go through hard times, suffer set backs or make mistakes--but do we disclose our problems or try to cover them up?

The newspaper industry is famous for demanding accountability and transparency.  Yet when their industry suffers hard times, they lie, spin and obfuscate in an effort to hide the real truth from readers. 

Advertisers don't trust newspapers to report their circulation numbers honestly, so they subscribe to an organization called the "Audit Bureau of Circulations."   Every six months, the ABC releases two circulation numbers, one for Sunday only and one for the rest of the week.  Those are the audited numbers and you can see them here. 

Here's what the Audit Bureau reported for the Republic.

Daily circ at The Arizona Republic in Phoenix fell 12.3% to 316,874. Sunday was almost flat (-0.8%) to 458,992.

However, here's how the Republic reported it.  First they confirm that the independent audit bureau is the source. 

Figures released Monday by the Audit Bureau of Circulations show that average daily circulation for U.S. newspapers dropped 10.6 percent in the April-September period from the same six-month span in 2008.

Then they provide the statistics.

Sunday home delivery circulation was up 0.74 percent. Overall, Sunday circulation dropped 0.87 percent to 458,992. The Republic dropped 12.23 percent on weekdays, to 316,874.

The second part--showing a drop in both Sunday and weekday circulation--is clearly from the ABC report but what about the first statistic showing an up tick in the strange category "Sunday home delivery Circulation"?  That's not in the report (at least not in the public part).  That looks like an internal, unaudited spin statistic.  That's the Republic's own number and you can believe it at your own risk.  Yet the way the sentence is written, the number is presented as an audited number.

That's classic obfuscation.  In fact, in a prospectus, it would be criminal.  If that number is indeed unaudited and they are lumping it in with the audited numbers and passing it off to advertisers, they are at risk for fraud. 

The advertisers have some protection at law.  The readers however are at the mercy of the Republic's honesty and transparency.  Unfortunately, although the paper demands these qualities in others, it doesn't demonstrate them itself..

Yes I'm Free...Free Fallin'

The Audit Bureau of Circulation published the latest newspaper circulation numbers and I couldn't help that little homage to Tom Petty.  Sorry, it won't happen again.

Here's the report and it's not pretty. 

Circulation at many of the country's largest newspapers continued a steep slide as the Audit Bureau of Circulations Monday morning released the latest figures for the six months ending September 2009 -- proving yet again that the industry can't shake the dramatic declines that have taken hold over the past several years.

Here's the report for the Republic.

Daily circ at The Arizona Republic in Phoenix fell 12.3% to 316,874. Sunday was almost flat (-0.8%) to 458,992.

I'm sure we'll get a series of advertisements from the Republic in which they brag that Sunday Circulation was almost flat. 

On a side note, I've been trying to cut down on a few vices and I'm choosing between giving up coffee or Schadenfreude for a couple months.  Tough choice, but believe it or not, I'd rather give up coffee...so through this raging headache I will point out that the hapless Keven Willey who used to manage the Republic's editorial page and left to manage the editorial page of the Dallas Morning News faced a 22% circulation decline.  This is on top of so many previous double digit declines, that the Morning News is now considerably smaller than even the shrunk down Republic. 

THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC -- 316,874 -- (-12.30%)

THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS -- 263,810 -- (-22.16%)

That's Like So 2008.

The left side of the Republic editorial board has come completely unhinged over the press conference held by Russell Pearce, JD Hayworth, Joe Arpaio and Andrew Thomas.  They are proposing a voter initiative that would add subpoena power to the employer sanctions law, prevent cities from blocking federal enforcement measures and classify illegal aliens as trespassers. 

Naturally, the Republic thinks that these are horrible ideas brought forth by horrible people.  No surprises there, but the editorial had an interesting twist--the proposals should be rejected because they are bad for THE REPUBLICAN PARTY--as if the author cares about Republicans. 

But they go far toward assuring that the Republican Party will further diminish its national standing, further reduce its abilities to win elections (beyond, we grant, county sheriff), and further stuff the party into a corner reserved for losers.

Ouch*.

I always find it funny when an author who hates Republicans expresses concern that part of the platform will damage the long term interests of the party. 

However, I was most surprised by how out of touch the author (presumably Kathleen Ingley) is about national trends.

"Further diminish national standing"? "Stuff the party into a corner reserved for losers?"  Dude, that is so 2008.  Earth to Kathleen...have you seen the recent poll numbers?

No. I'm not talking about the Obama face plant--falling faster than any President of the last 50 years, I'm talking about the standard "Who do you trust more on this issue" question. Republicans now lead every issue.  That's astonishing. 

Republicans used to own National Security, while the Dems owned the Economy.  The standard tactic has been for the parties to try to focus the election on their strength.  That's why Bill Clinton did so well with "it's the Economy Stupid."  If the Issue would have been Iraq, the first President Bush would have defeated Clinton handily.  But now, the main issue is the economy, and guess what--Republicans own it. 

Not only is the Republic's current "party of losers" perspective way off, but the "Driving off Hispanics" meme is getting stale.  Ingley is reciting the well worn Democratic Shibboleth that most illegal immigrants are Hispanic, so Hispanic Americans must be personally offended by efforts to curb illegal immigration. 

Ok, let me shock you with a statement...When it comes to immigration, Pearce, Hayworth, Arpaio and Thomas are MAINSTREAM.  In the past, when Pearce and company  put their proposals on the ballot, they passed overwhelmingly.  Their English Only initiative passed by 2 to 1 in PIMA COUNTY. That means there are a lot of liberal Democrats--and a lot of Hispanics--voting for stronger sanctions against illegal immigrants. In fact, I've seen polling indicating that the immigration reforms enjoy majority support among Hispanics. 

Frankly, that shouldn't be too surprising.  After all, the guy who has been here legally for several generations, pays his taxes, lives by the rules and speaks English as a native language doesn't necessarily consider the crowd of day laborers at Home Depot to be kindred spirits. 

I would argue that the Democratic Party has more risk of alienating Hispanics.  After all, the Hispanic population tends to be socially conservative and entrepreneurial.  The Democratic Party has become the party of the poor, the ultra rich and the cultural elite.  As more and more Hispanics move into the middle class, the party of Goldman Sachs and Roman Polanski will have less appeal for them.

So thanks for the advice Kathleen, but Republicans are doing just fine. And if you are worried that the Party is going to turn off Hispanic voters, maybe you should talk to a couple of my friends...here's a good place to start.  Then check this out.

*Footnote

...further stuff the party into a corner reserved for losers. 

Republicans dominate Maricopoa County.  How many of them are offended by the characterization that they are a member of a Party of losers?  Sure, the Republic likes to criticize candidates and ideas, but saying that the Republican Party is "stuffed into a corner reserved for losers" strikes me as poor business decision. 

The Audit Bureau of Circulation numbers come out later today.  Obviously, they haven't taken Kathleen's screed into account...yet.  But my guess is that the numbers will show that the Republic's disdain of members of the Republican party is reciprocated.

Striking While the Iron is Cold

In politics--just like as in sex and comedy--timing is everything.

Last January, Governor Brewer inherited a multi-billion dollar deficit and shocked the political community by proposing an 18% sales tax increase in order to generate an extra billion dollars. 

Think of the opportunity for Democrats.  They had just lost Governor Napolitano who was replaced by a Conservative Republican.  Furthermore, ten years of "Clean Elections" has ensured that the legislature is dominated by Conservatives; Russell Pearce is Senate Appropriations Chairman and "Black Heart" Bob Burns is President of the Senate.

Brewer not only proposes to put a huge tax increase on the ballot, but she also uses her clout to convince Legislative leadership to support her plan and over the next few months, they manage to bring nearly every Republican on board--not enough to pass the measure, but enough to make it clear that the increase has widespread Republican support. 

All the Democrats have to do is provide a few votes in each chamber to push the measure over the top.  However, preferring to watch Republicans twist in the wind, they withhold their votes, let the measure die and accuse Republicans of being unable to Govern.

Fast forward to yesterday's budget briefing where we learned that the fiscal hole in this year's budget isn't "just" $1.5 billion, it's more like $2 billion.  The deadline to put the tax increase on the 2009 ballot has long since passed,  but now we learn that the Democrats are finally coming around. 

...Cheuvront, who also attended Thursday's presentation, said the increasingly dismal fiscal forecasts have made him and other Democrats more receptive to Brewer's call for a temporary, 1-cent-per-dollar hike in the state sales tax.

"We don't have a choice. We have to raise revenue," Cheuvront said. "We need a tax increase. I think a lot of Democrats are coming on board."

Coming on board?  That ship has sailed.  The ballots are printed.  The die is cast.  Elvis has left the building.  Brewer asked the Democrats to help her raise a billion dollars so she could avoid cutting programs and they told her to shove it.  Which is exactly what I predicted at the beginning of the session. 

Now Kevin Tyne is gone; Brewer looks like she's running for election and we are well into the 2010 campaign season.  I don't think you are going to see any more overtures from the 9th floor--sufficient enough was the three months of humiliation that Republicans endured between the time Brewer proposed the tax increase and the time Secretary of State Ken Bennett said it was too late to put it on the ballot.

Democrats may still get a tax increase, but the iron has grown cold.  Cold, hard, stiff, unyielding iron is what they will likely face now.  Remember that when the janitor brings that 40th desk into you kid's classroom.

Born To Run

When we survey the field for 2010, there are plenty of things that remain uncertain--whether Governor Brewer will seek re-election, if Terry Goddard will abide by the resign to run law, when Jeff Flake will get his own reality show....but there's one thing we do know for sure--John McCain is running and running hard.

McCain has been hosting a series of town halls and the meetings continue later this month with a meeting on Friday, October 30th at 2:00 p.m.  at Central Christian Church in Mesa and then another on Saturday, October 31st, at 10:00 a.m. at Skyway Church of the West Valley in Goodyear.

I've mentioned before that the early (August 24th) Primary date leaves McCain vulnerable to a high profile candidate like Len Munsil or JD Hayworth, but that vulnerability dissipates with each month that McCain spends touring the state while others remain on the sidelines--A few more months of him getting all Mavericky and this race will be over. 

You Can't Fight in Here...this is the War Room

Maybe it's just me, but I thought this was a really bizarre story.

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is accusing U.S. Department of Justice officials of trying to sneak into a news conference by posing as reporters. His lawyer says he will file a complaint.

So it was like a "private" press conference?