Striking While the Iron is Cold

In politics--just like as in sex and comedy--timing is everything.

Last January, Governor Brewer inherited a multi-billion dollar deficit and shocked the political community by proposing an 18% sales tax increase in order to generate an extra billion dollars. 

Think of the opportunity for Democrats.  They had just lost Governor Napolitano who was replaced by a Conservative Republican.  Furthermore, ten years of "Clean Elections" has ensured that the legislature is dominated by Conservatives; Russell Pearce is Senate Appropriations Chairman and "Black Heart" Bob Burns is President of the Senate.

Brewer not only proposes to put a huge tax increase on the ballot, but she also uses her clout to convince Legislative leadership to support her plan and over the next few months, they manage to bring nearly every Republican on board--not enough to pass the measure, but enough to make it clear that the increase has widespread Republican support. 

All the Democrats have to do is provide a few votes in each chamber to push the measure over the top.  However, preferring to watch Republicans twist in the wind, they withhold their votes, let the measure die and accuse Republicans of being unable to Govern.

Fast forward to yesterday's budget briefing where we learned that the fiscal hole in this year's budget isn't "just" $1.5 billion, it's more like $2 billion.  The deadline to put the tax increase on the 2009 ballot has long since passed,  but now we learn that the Democrats are finally coming around. 

...Cheuvront, who also attended Thursday's presentation, said the increasingly dismal fiscal forecasts have made him and other Democrats more receptive to Brewer's call for a temporary, 1-cent-per-dollar hike in the state sales tax.

"We don't have a choice. We have to raise revenue," Cheuvront said. "We need a tax increase. I think a lot of Democrats are coming on board."

Coming on board?  That ship has sailed.  The ballots are printed.  The die is cast.  Elvis has left the building.  Brewer asked the Democrats to help her raise a billion dollars so she could avoid cutting programs and they told her to shove it.  Which is exactly what I predicted at the beginning of the session. 

Now Kevin Tyne is gone; Brewer looks like she's running for election and we are well into the 2010 campaign season.  I don't think you are going to see any more overtures from the 9th floor--sufficient enough was the three months of humiliation that Republicans endured between the time Brewer proposed the tax increase and the time Secretary of State Ken Bennett said it was too late to put it on the ballot.

Democrats may still get a tax increase, but the iron has grown cold.  Cold, hard, stiff, unyielding iron is what they will likely face now.  Remember that when the janitor brings that 40th desk into you kid's classroom.

Comments

[todd]

Republicans have humiliated themselves, and doubtless the humiliation is not over. Of course, they will blame Democrats but I don't think people are going to buy that.

Back to your point, this assumes that Democrats somehow want a tax increase more than the governor does. Not sure I believe this because I don't see how Brewer wins in a general with the types of cuts that are going to be made.

[Winnie]

Ahh, another risk of sending one's kids to government-run schools rears its ugly head.

[Tom in Kingman]

The Republican'ts have complete control of the House, Senate, and Governor's office, and it is the Democrats fault the budget is a mess? Sorry that is completely delusional. Janet N. was trying to spend money to bring Arizona into the 20th century, let along the 21st, and Gould is trying to move us into the 19th century. If there was some bipartisan approach early on, that might have helped, but instead, the ideologes who dominate the Republican controlled legislature, had no interest in talking to Democrats. The Republicans are completely responsible for this mess and the dismantling of the education system. Maybe that is what they want, all tax supported private schools anyway. The Republicans have spent decades lowering taxes, that weren't that high to start with, giving out tax credits like candy, and maintaining sales tax exemptions for so long, the cows have come home to roost. Moderates don't have a chance. Ron Gould, Harper, and Russell Pearce are postal children for the Republican right. You get what you sow. Voters remember that. And not just the California retirees who moved here, with their government pensions, and Medicare.

[Steve F.]

"Not sure I believe this because I don't see how Brewer wins in a general with the types of cuts that are going to be made."

Who says Brewer is even going to make it to the general?

Lots of disgusted Republicans out there that just want her gone as much as they wanted the Napster gone.

They thought they were getting a conservative with solid principles; instead they got a clone of Nappy.

[Bill]

I have to agree with Todd and Tom, blaming the Democrats for overcrowded classrooms because they didn't support a tax increase doesn't seem like a winning strategy. Kind of condtradicts the overarching Republican message.

[Thane Eichenauer]

I disagree with the premise here. The Democrats accomplished what they have traditionally wanted, continued government spending at or near historical levels.

Arizona government has borrowed more money to pay for continued spending. That is a win in Democrat-land. The newspapers and media by and large has spent months casting the Republican majority as dysfunctional.

The minority dissent among the media (token advocates for limited government) get their 1/8th or 1/12th amount of column inches but will that be enough to convince the winter voters come a year from now? We all know that last years screams from government bureaucracy (Arizona government university screams were very convincing) will be cranked up 5 decibels this next budget cycle.

http://LibertarianSolution.com/

[todd]

Steve F.,
Of course she very well may not, but if she is planning on running for governor she must believe she stands a good chance of doing so.

[Winnie]

I always laugh when someone says that a particular party "controls" the legislature. Having a majority means a lot, yes, but having control is different. The real reason there's no budget is not because the Republican Party had too much control in the legislature, but that they had to little.

[Stupid is as stupid does.]

Ye gawds your partisan blinders have really put you into a loss of touch with reality.

If the Dems are shut out of the room, they won't play. Kinda simple, isn't it?

There will be no more election with that cover for republicans, now it is going to be a straight up vote on a tax increase, and a lot of the current legislative "Leadership" will have to swallow their pride and get the dems on board to cover their refuseniks.

So, in other words, the elegant solution is long gone, and the bitter medicine is going to be served in buckets.

If you think the electorate is going to reward the republicans in this state for this mess, you are smoking something legal in california.

Either that, or Brewer will shut down state government on January 1- all that will be left will be a rump slowly dying. Think she won't? I bet she will do it. The truth is the budget cuts are still too low for what is needed- and they will be made- 15,000 unemployed state employees are going to be very angry and very vocal.

The really funny part is Arizona government has had a very tame union up until now, now the legislature is going to get the union from hell, complete with laid off workers targeting districts and republicans in the election.

You broke it, you live with it, morons.

[AZ native]

Nice try Greg. What a laughable post.

[ron]

Doesn't his licence plate say, Black Hart?

[Stewie]

Not one vote from the Dems. They put partisanship bickering above doing their jobs of serving the state. Every day that unbalanced budget went forward from the start of the fiscal year the deficit has grown.

The old saying, if you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.

The Repubs in the legislature compromised on cuts with the gov and compromised on the sales tax vote. None of the Dems voted for any of the compromise.

Is it entirely the fault of the left? No. Did they have the last clear chance to move things forward? Yes. The economy in this state is going to be in the dumper for a few more years by most forecasts. This deficit thing is not going to get any easier. This year was an opportunity to take a big step in reducing the structural deficit. Now, next year, with rapidly shrinking federal "stimulus" money, instead of 1/3 of the way there, we're back at square one.

Go ahead, Dems, pat yourselves on the back from staying out of the fray and not getting your fingerprints on this years budget. Great way to serve the citizens of this state.

[stewie looks like chewie and is as ****]

Ya know stewie, while I am not a big fan of the dems, having Russel Pearce lock you out of any meaningful discussion looks like a closed door to me and most of the folks looking at it from the outside.

So, the Adams and Burns show came up with a great big zero, sorry, inviting the dems to show up in August seems lame to me, after a quickie appeal on June 28th?

I don't know what planet you live on, but if I was treated like a mushroom, I would know I was being fed manure.

[ron]

It is interesting to see the parallel at the federal level where the Dems have the White House, the House and the Senate and can't pull off a lot of their legislative goals ---- interestingly it is the right wing of the Dems who are playing the spoilers at the federal level and it is the right wing of the Repubs who are playing the spoilers at the AZ state level