My Pick of the Week

It's illegal to bet on elections and I don't know anything about sports, so with the exception of a short--but successful--stint at professional blackjack, I don't gamble much.  But if betting on elections were legal, the Tucson City Council race would be my pick of the week. 

The race should be a Democratic sweep.  The Tucson City Council race features two Democratic incumbents seeking re-election and a prominent Democrat running for a long time Democratic seat.  Under Tucson's Jim Crow vestige voting system, all three candidates are running city wide, so even if a candidate is trying to win a Republican Ward, he has to be elected by a majority of the entire city. 

Frankly, a Democratic Sweep is still the most likely outcome. But in elections--like March Madness--it's the ability to spot the potential upsets that gets a handicapper the big bucks. 

There are three factors that put the seats in play.  First, there's the general dissatisfaction with the way Democrats have been running things.  Nationally, that's seen in poll results on everything from the economy to health care.  Locally, Rio Nuevo has gone past boondoggle and is well into disaster. 

Then there's the Tucson garbage tax--remember all politics is local, but local politics is really local, and it doesn't get any more local than the garbage tax.  In Tucson, Democrats complained that the tax was too high and then got into office and promptly raised it. This might be the one time where having your party designation on the ballot isn't really a good thing.

The second major factor is Proposition 200.  Talk about Alice in Wonderland.  Prop 200 would force the city to spend more money on police and fire protection.  That's normally a Democratic push.  But the Tucson Business Community isn't happy that Tucson spends so much money on touchy feely stuff and decided to force the City to spend more on police and fire in order to starve the rest of the beast.   Republicans--mainly Jim Click--have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars backing the Proposition and much of that has been on get out the vote efforts. (The Star and the Goldwater Institute are both against Prop. 200.)

Democrats have countered that Prop 200 is fiscally irresponsible--that might be a good message against the proposition, but it's likely to make the whole election turn on fiscal responsibility--and after the Rio Nuevo and garbage fee debacles, fiscal responsibility is  Republican territory. 

Finally, You will recall that 6,000 Tea Partiers showed up at Tucson Electric Park a few weeks ago.  I think it's likely that they will show up at the polls today--and it's not likely that they will be there to support the incumbents.

Even if the Tea Party crowd were predisposed toward the status quo, one thing is clear.  They won't be backing Karin Uhlich.

Uhlich posted a long screed on her website in which she blasted the "Tea Baggers." 

She was ultimately forced to apologize.

Democratic City Councilwoman Karin Uhlich apologized to Tucson Tea Party attendees Wednesday, after complaints that her campaign used a derogatory term that could be considered a sexual slur.

Note to Karin Uhlich--When the most logical pronunciation of your name is "You Lick" it's probably not a good idea to mock people using sexual innuendo.

Uhlich, may be in trouble, but from what sources in Tucson tell me,  Nina Trasoff has a stronger opponent and may actually be more vulnerable.  

So If I have to predict, I would say it's still likely that the Democrats will prevail. But if you are looking for one upset in your Pol Pool, bet agianst Trasoff. 

If it were legal, I would put money on a Republican sweep.  Sure, a parlay like that isn't likely to pay off, but it would pay 50 to 1 and that would make it a very good bet indeed. 

I think we might see some surprises in Tucson tonight.

Comments

[Matt Sh.]

I can't think of single thing that Nina Trasoff has done for her constituents. Sadly, because she was a former tv news anchor, she will probably win...Come back Fred Ronstadt, come back...

[Veritas Vincit]

Tucson is the goofiest and most schizophrenic city I've ever encountered.

Old Tucson remains in the background, that once bastion of a western conservative community so very Arizonan.

On the other hand, since the late 1980s and the rise of ASU as a beacon of progressive liberalism, Tucson's once western savor has taken a decidedly San Franciscan overtone.

Rio Nuevo is symbolic of the city's stasis in time, unable to decide exactly what its true nature is.

But today's election I suspect will move the marker away from its left of center home and back in a direction that recognizes the failure of the city's liberal idealism to produce a place where garbage can be collected at a reasonable price and inter-city traffic can flow at a reasonable pace.

My money says Republican sweep.

[That Guy]

Kind of a "low blow" to Uhlich, wasn't it? Way to keep it in the ballpark, Greg.

[Kim]

Uhlich does have a very strong opponent, Ben Buehler-Garcia. He has lived in Tucson a long time and has lots of experience in economic development.

It does not hurt that he speaks fluent Spanish. Plus there is a Green Party candidate on the ballot for Ward 3.

My prediction. Ben wins as well and maybe by more that Steve.

[Stewie]

Long odds but I do have this sense that a reason to vote against one of the D's is the exact same reason to vote against all of them. In a citywide election, that's something to consider. Depends who turns out to vote. I do think that Trasoff is the most likely to lose but the R's have been running together while the D's have not. Just an observation.

There have been plenty of things exposed over the last year that if an anti-incumbent mood is in the air then the results tonight could be very interesting.

But, again, there are some registration advantages to overcome.

There will either be one R celebrating victory or all three.

[James L.]

So what makes you think all those tea bag...er partiers live in the city limits? Less than 60% of the population of Pima County live within Tucson and most of them are liberal dems. Ergo-Democratic majorities on the council. Not saying the GOP's will not pick a seat or two-I just wouldn't point to a political rally as a means of predicting election results down here.

[Doubter]

You forgot the Democrats' secret weapon - Nathan Sproul. He's running the GOP effort down there, although I can't figure out why. Does that guy ever win?

[Victoria]

Uh, The teabaggers named themselves teabaggers via their signs and the statements they gave the media that they wanted to teabag members of congress.

[Joe G.]

Odd then, Victoria, that Ulrich apologized.

[Joe G.]

Uhlich, even.

[Doubter]

Okay, so the folks in Tucson say Nathan wasn't "running the show" but that he was still involved. And they won one race and might even win a second. So I'll admit being in the wrong here on this occasion. Who knows, maybe this will be the start of something good for Sproul?