Carpe D.M.

It was exactly a year ago today that I predicted that Janet Napolitano would become Michael Brown. Today, if you put "heckuva job" and "Janet" into Google, you will get over 1,000 hits. 

Earlier this week, I pointed out that when Janet Napolitano gets fired, it won't be for her incompetence or her gaffes, it will be because Democratic political strategists will realize that she is going to damage Democratic Congressional candidates in the 2010 elections.

Today, that theory is starting to go national.  

The real and lasting damage, however, is not to Janet Napolitano's tenure in the Obama cabinet. Rather, it is to Democrats running in 2010.

Just as Michael Brown came to symbolize George Bush as detached and aloof, Janet has come to symbolize Obama as naive and weak.   She's an albatross even assuming that there are no other incidents.  If a plane goes down on her watch, the Democrats will lose the House and possibly the Senate. 

Napolitano will hurt Democratic candidates generally, but there is one Democratic golden child who is especially vulnerable to Napolitano's image problems. 

Gabby Giffords represents Arizona's 8th Congressional District--that's the one that was represented by Republican Jim Kolbe for 22 years.  It's also the Arizona District with the largest military presence.  Fort Huachuca is within the district and most of the men and women who serve at Davis Monthan Air force Base live in the district. 

In many ways the next election will be a fight over DM.  Davis Monthan voters are more likely to vote on national security issues and unlike the rest of the nation to whom Janet is simply a deer in the camera lights, DM voters know Janet.  They also know that Gabby knows Janet. 

Napolitano is going to hurt a lot of Democrats in the fall--30 seconds at a time.  But Giffords--who has a personal relationship with Janet, and represents a district with a heavy military presence of voters who also know Janet--is especially vulnerable. 

So the race is likely to come down to who can best seize the DM voter.  Gabby with Janet wrapped her neck, or the Republican challenger.  It looks to me like the two likely  Republican  Challengers  are pretty well positioned.

Update:  The Star is running a straw poll  asking whether or not Napolitano should be fired.  Polls like this aren't scientific and the poll should be taken with a grain of salt because it is paired with an article about Kyl and McCain's views on Napolitano's performance. However, it is also being conducted in her geographic base.  Pima county should be the number one county in the nation in which Napolitano's support is strongest.

 So far, the results are 2 to 1 in favor of letting her go.

Comments

[jainphx]

If she gets fired does that mean we have to take her back?

[Paul S]

No returns!

[Stewie]

Well, I think we can safely assume that Gabby won't ask Napolitano to do any fundraisers for her. At least not in Tucson. Maybe she'll have Napolitano do one away from home like she did with Pelosi or Biden. Sneaky little vixen.

[Greg has to start learning from reality,instead of wishing.]

More stupid thoughts.

DM is dead meat.

Small, hemmed in, old.

Except for the boneyard operations, it is obsolete, and the boneyard will most likely be outsourced and privatized to the Mohave or Kingman.

On the other hand, developers will eventually have a field day with all that space.

But first, Tucson's bust!

Don't count JaNo down and out yet. Repubs here kept doing that, and she kept on coming up smelling like roses after a trip through the dungheap.

[nick]

Greg has to start learning from reality.

Any thoughts about global warming?

[Dude]

Giffords will be safe. She will bring out her Astronaut husband and all the pork she brought back to the district and she will have the seat until she resigns to run for the Senate when Kyl or McCain retires.

[Scott]

Will she bring out her two rent-a-daughters as well?

[BobH]

"More stupid thoughts. DM is dead meat."

Could be, but it won't be closed within the next ten months -- so your thoughts would appear to be irrelevant to the subject.

[Greg has to start learning from reality.]

Global warming only comes from Al Gore's mansion.

As for climate change, well, the Chinese and Indians are going to make it unstoppable, so why worry?

DM is very important to Tucson and the voters there- Gabby is their best bet to keep it going. Anybody else without her pull (slight as it is) pretty much dooms it to BRAC.

As for firing Nappy, uh how long did Rumsfeld last running a war badly?

Nappy will end up the new J.Edgar Hoover, with all the dirt, and the ability to use it.

That agency is too powerful for freedom in America. Of course, if we wanted to be safe and not PC, we would simply not allow most of the third world to get on a plane to this country. That would be a simple solution, now wouldn't it?

[Phillip D]

Mr. Patterson,

Here is why your thinking on this issue is wrong:

"Just as Michael Brown came to symbolize George Bush as detached and aloof, Janet has come to symbolize Obama as naive and weak."

Bush was seen as ineffectual, on Katrina and in the war in Iraq because he actually was ineffectual. But Obama will not be seen as weak and ineffectual because he has already proven how effective he is in this fight. Just some examples:

1) he successfully took out Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, the ringleader of a Qaeda cell in Kenya and one of the most wanted Islamic militants in Africa;
2)he successfully took out Baitullah Mehsud, Pakistan's enemy No.1 and the leader of its Taliban movement;
3) he successfully launched strikes against suspected al Qaeda sites in Yemen.
4) he successfully took out suspected terrorists Najibullah Zazi, Talib Islam, and Hosam Maher Husein Smadi into custody before they could launch their planned attacks.

All in just 11 months.

Now, Janet will slink back into the background and everyone will fairly quickly forget about her. But Obama's successes will not be forgotten about.

Second,
Congressional District 8 is two very distinct regions. I agree with you that Davis Monthan voters are more likely to vote on national security issues (republican), but everybody else will more certainly vote for Giffords, rather than her opponent.

Right now the republican has an ideological chain around the neck that almost nobody wants to see in power again. First, people like a government that protects the economy (market default swaps, or mortgage backed securities anyone?). Second, people believe there is a lot more to health reform than tort reform. Third, fear mongering just won't play well this time around: healthcare for illegal aliens, federally funded abortions, taking medicare away from grandma -- these republican talking points make everybody else turn away from the republican party.

So the republicans will probably get DM votes, but they'll be very hard pressed to get any others in CD 8.

[T.J.]

Note that "heckuva job" and "Janet" currently return 50,800 hits on Google...