Isn't That Ironic.

The New York Times has an interesting article about John McCain getting back to his roots.  I thought this was interesting section.

Mr. McCain, who did not respond to a request for an interview, told advisers the day after he lost to Barack Obama that he intended to seek a fifth term in the Senate. Yet he is facing a threatened primary challenge from J.D. Hayworth, a conservative talk show host and former Republican member of Congress, who said he was encouraged by polls that showed Mr. McCain was vulnerable.

“The question that people are asking is this,” Mr. Hayworth said in an interview. “Do we want to send John McCain back to the United States Senate again, or is it time to change to a clear, consistent, common-sense Republican?”

Notice that McCain doesn't return the NYT calls, buy Hayworth does?  Now that's a switch.  It's also clearly an indication that both camps think that McCain is vulnerable. 

Comments

[Matt]

I believe John McCain might be nearing his wear-out date. Others might think he is well past it.

The primaries will be tough on McCain. If it looks like the democrats can field a candidate that has a good chance of beating him, the voters might look at Hayworth as a better deal. McCain has to sell the fact that he is better than Hayworth and any democrat they can run against him. Hayworth pretty much has the same challenge that he is vastly better than McCain and can beat any democrat that runs.

[Conway]

AZ Dumbocrats are sitting out the 2010 senate race because, with Janet in DC, they can't field anyone that would come close to touching McCain.

My guess is that they could field someone who could beat JD in a senate race.

If JD was such an electoral lock in 2010, he'd jump in today. Fact is, he isn't.

Beside's still being in debt, I predict that he's not going to give up his steady paycheck and daily soapbox for a risky (at best) proposition.

Heck, I doubt that JD could even win his old House seat back from Mitchell (who, let's not forget, is there thanks to JD).

[jmp]

Bonzo the democrat wonder eel could have run against JD and probably would have given him a good run for the money for his house seat. At that time, the democrat base was supercharged because of their hatred of W, and was all about getting those darn republicans out any way they could.

I believe JD is playing it VERY smart here. Waiting and watching for a good entry point. He has the twofer going for him as well - he's a conservative (which is polling well) AND he's a fervent backer of the tea party movement (which is polling higher than republicans according to Rasmussen!)

The tide is changing away from liberals and even moderates, and back to core American conservative values. I believe 2010/2012 will be a watershed time for America's political future. And look who's sitting in the catbird's seat; PERFECTLY positioned for this time: J D Hayworth.

I have a lot of respect for McCain, but I do believe he's moderated too much for the people of AZ. The polls tend to support that assessment as well. McCain himself seems to be afraid - running from a journalist asking about JD, doing push polling against JD, and even possibly stuffing an internet ballot box recently.

You might not think he'll have a problem, but it sure looks to me (and I'm sure others) like HE thinks he has a problem! And the problem's name is pretty easy to figure out.

[Nick]

Check for JD.
Two cent stamp for McCain.

[Conway]

Perfect timing? Catbird's seat?

The guy is in DEBT. It will cost MILLIONS to run and win. With the primary just 9 months away, how will it get easier to raise all that if he continues to wait?

Again, I'm betting heavy that JD is just blowing smoke and, sadly, riling up his handful of listeners/supporters into believing that 1) he's likely to run, and 2) he could win.

Seems more likely that he is just manipulating the situation to get back in the black.

Time will tell. Tick tock, tick tock...

[Ryan]

J.D. lost his seat to Harry Mitchell in a district where Republicans have an 18 point advantage. 18 points. And he takes a majority in Arizona in 2010 exactly how?

[jmp]

Five letters - TEMPE.

Tempe was in the district he lost - one of the largest student campuses in the country. Predominantly liberal.

Hint: Tempe is not all of Arizona :)

And that debt, I think it's much smaller now than it was on December 4th.

[Ann]

Even if his bill is reduced and eventually retired, how will JD make a living in the 9 months before the primary? Or does he think he can run a quasi-campaign from his microphone and declare at the last minute?

He is parlaying the "maybe I will" to pay off his debt, will build the momentum and use it....but not in 2010.

[Hmm?]

Bring it on, windbag! McCain Camp ready to deliver the smackdown.

[Carl Hay]

Anyone but McVain!

[Rex]

McCain is still popular enough in the GOP that he will win a primary, especially given the fact that Simcox will divide the anti-incumbent vote. As of now, there is no Democrat running other than first-term Tucson Councilman Rodney Glassman. He faces a decidedly uphill battle and anyone else who got in now would have a tough time raising the money needed to take on McCain in a general election. McCain will be re-elected next year. Bank on it!

[Brian D.]

I suspect we will enjoy (?) one final hurrah from McCain before he eventually [hopefully] retires from the Senate.

Hayworth doesn't have the funding or the popular support (and I suspect name recognition) to win the statewide primary or the general in 2010. Perhaps JD will enter the fray against Mitchell for something closer to home where he is a known commodity? The race for the House will be far cheaper than for the Senate.

Simcox is DOA. End of story.