Looks Like Janet will be buying Another One way Ticket...

Janet Napolitano will be lucky to last another six months as DHS Secretary. 

Don't get me wrong; she's not going to be forced out because she's unqualified--after all, if qualifications mattered, she obviously wouldn't have been appointed in the first place. 

She's not going to be forced out because of her increasingly serious series of embarrassing gaffes--claiming that illegal immigration isn't actually illegal, claiming that 9/11 terrorists entered the US through Canada, issuing a report that returning military vets could be recruited as terrorists by right wing groups, or publishing the TSA Security Manuel online.

Frankly, she's not even going to be forced out for her disastrous handling of the Christmas Bomber story--although her laughable claim that "The system worked" will go down as a monumental gaffe.  (A guy on the watch list, reportedly without a passport and without luggage, pays cash for a one way ticket and gets on a plane to the US and the only reason he is unable to blow it up is that his bomb fails to detonate and a passenger overwhelms him--what part of that makes Janet think that "The system worked"?) (Update: Janet is now admitting that "the system failed miserably".)

No, she's going to be forced out because the entire world knows that she's incompetent and the President's team understands that they will be held politically responsible if there is a major incident on her watch.  My guess is that Rahm Emanuel called the President sometime in the last 24 hours and said that the Democrats will lose 100 seats in Congress if the President leaves Napolitano in office and someone takes down a plane within three months of the election.  Team Obama has to be considering the Madrid train bombings which were perfectly timedto topple the government of Jose Maria Aznar.

So in the next six months--probably much sooner--Janet will move on and the President will pick an obscure, non-political, retired General who is clearly qualified and above reproach. 

But how does Napolitano find a face saving exit?  Ah, here's where the story gets interesting. Janet obviously can't use the classic Washington excuse that she wants "to spend more time with her family." And she can't just Waltz over to K street...even Washington's revolving door doesn't revolve that quickly.  No. Janet has to make it look like she's leaving DHS for something bigger. 

So what could be bigger than being a Cabinet Secretary?  Being a Senator.  Janet needs a face saving way out of DHS that preserves her political capital and keeps Washington insiders wondering if she is coming back.  Her best move is to resign her position in March and immediately announce against John McCain. 

Can she actually beat McCain?  Of course not.  But that's not the point.  If she caps off her disastrous year at DHS by getting fired and then aimlessly searching for a place to land, her political career is over and she's a laughingstock.  However, if she resigns and immediately announces against McCain, she has managed to save face and regain political credibility. 

She's also betting on a Black Swan--those extremely rare game changing events that can't be predicted, but seem obvious in retrospect.  She's hoping that J.D. Hayworth--or in his absence Len Munsil--takes out McCain in the August 24th primary.  Frankly, in the current political climate--and after bankrupting the state and then bolting--it's unlikely that Janet could defeat Hayworth or Munsil, but it would be an interesting race. 

Am I wrong to predict that Janet will resign the DHS job in March and immediately announce that she's running against John McCain?  Probably.  After all, it's a pretty bold prediction--or course I have a pretty good record with bold predictions.  Like this one and this one, and this one, and of course, this one. In fact, the most likely scenario is that she leaves within the next six months and quietly sinks into the obscurity of a D.C. law firm.  But the McCain scenario is a distinct possibility and if someone were to give me decent odds, I think it would be an excellent bet.

Speaking of predictions, It's been a year since Janet accepted the job at  Homeland Security and you may recall that  I pointed out that the job would be a disaster for her. 

The Governor has just accepted the worst job in the United States Government.  If nothing happens, then she will go down in history as an obscure figure who is responsible for you having to take off your shoes at the airport.  Even if she manages to prevent a disaster, you will never hear about it.  The job has no up side.

But what about a Black Swan?  What if someone puts Anthrax in the Metro, a comet hits Houston, a 500 year flood wipes out a good chunk of the Midwest, or a ticked off engineer from Pakistan, Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan crosses the border from Canada with a nuclear bomb in the back of a VW Micro Bus?

What then?  Then Janet becomes Michael Brown after Katrina, Neville Chamberlain after Munich or Bill Buckner after the 1986 World Series. 

Her tenure at Homeland Security will either entail  year after year of career-ending obscurity, or sudden, total, unexpected and unmitigated disaster.

Since then, Janet has gone from gaffe to gaffe and she is well on her way to becoming Buckner.  One announcement would change all that. 

Comments

[Conway]

Janet Napolitano = EPIC FAIL

[Name2]

Did you see her classic "deer in the headlights" look when interviewed over the weekend?

She is clearly in over her head, and I think your prediction is right on.

[Matt]

Greg, your analysis of her options isn't bad. I am pretty sure she couldn't get elected to anything in the state of AZ now. Not dog catcher, Board of Supervisors, Corporate Commission, nothing. Well, maybe attorney general...

I don't think we have to worry about an attack like the Madrid Bombings. Why would any terror group out there, want to topple this administration? If they did, they might get a competent one in it's place.

[North Valley Republican]

Backtracking from a widely criticized assertion over the weekend, the secretary of homeland security, Janet Napolitano, said in a televised interview on Monday that the thwarted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas represented a failure of the nation’s aviation security system, not a success. - New York Times

[Jim Torgeson]

I just hope and pray she's offered a job at a DC firm owned by another of Obama's Bilderberg buddies.

She needs to evaporate.

[matt roberts]

fantastic editorial !

[Bryan_Hatfield]

Stick a fork in her, Napolitano is done.

I'm amazed she got as far as she did in AZ politics, but that's purely because the local media covered for her every step of the way.

The AZ Republic could no longer protect her once she stepped onto the national stage.

[ron]

She doesn't need to come back to AZ to build her case for a cushy job in some law firm where she will handle the lobbying contracts for various clients. She can do it now.

[onehorsetown]

What about the possibility of a Supreme Court nomination? She could keep her far left agendas moving and be insulated for life.

[David Cantelme]

Greg, She replaces Stevens or Ginsburg this summer.

[RonJ]

Very good points, Greg. In the words of that great Chicago philosopher, Rev. J. Wright, "The chickens have come home to roost." Nappy is in over her head and the best thing for us is for her to just fade away. But, narcissists being who they are, she will try to stay in the limelight either in D.C. or in AZ. My bet is she will run against McCain or J.D. And with the Arizona Republic on her side, she has a chance. I don't think she wins, but she'll make a game of it. (Remember, 2010 will be a big Republican year.) If she's more smart than narcissistic, she'll accept a position at a D.C. law firm.

[John]

Regarding the possibility of a Supreme Court nomination, remember that she is not going to leave Homeland Security under positive, politically beneficial circumstances. No way Obama will nominate her for SCOTUS - that would be as bad as if Bush were to have nominated someone like Harriet Miers - could you imagine if he'd done that?

[Franklin Wolfenson]

She would be easily confirmed to the Supreme Court (with all Dems plus a bunch of GOP votes like that Wise Latina), and would give the Supremes another pro-abortion radical to rival his own extremism on that issue. Women's and gay groups would also applaud.

Would be a terrible leftward move for the Court and country, but at least would get her out of DHS.

And then at least she won't keep beating Arizona Republicans in elections. She ever lost one?

[Mike Rebro]

To replay history, Ms. Napolitano with the help of Republicans, did balance budgets as governor. That is something that a Republican governor and Republican legislature has been unable to do. Nobody who has had the Homeland Security job came to the job with the prerequisite requirements. The job is unique. Ms. Napolitano has at times made inaccurate remarks. She has been quick to clarify those remarks and take responsibility. Her comments on radicals in this country have been right on. I am sure we all pray for her success.

[Bummer]

Thank you for the write up. The arrogance is a big weakness. Politics over policy is a disaster. Her victories are meaningless, spending that has been cut, puffed up revenue projections, bullied allied Democrats, Mob loyalty with filtered communications. Enjoy the silence.

[Bummer]

Holy cow!

[John]

Franklin - the Dems in Congress (particularly those of the Blue Dog variety) have already expended nearly all their political capital supporting Obama's health plan. God knows when another vacancy will open in the Supreme Court, but if it were to happen say, next summer, Dems who hope to avoid the Revolution of 2010 will run screaming from a radical leftward lurch. Under other circumstances, I'd say you were right, but the current anti-incumbent sentiment (coupled with polling indicating that Americans increasingly don't trust Obama's judgment) will make our representatives very leery of confirming a failed, disgraced, hard-left pol to SCOTUS.

[nick]

'New' terrorist guidlines at DHS?

Borowitz Report:

In the wake of the Christmas Day airline terror attempt, the Department of Homeland Security today said it was instituting a bold new series of security measures, including issuing an official "proof of terrorism" I.D. card.

"All potential terrorists must have the terrorist I.D. card in order to be barred from boarding," said Homeland Security secretary Janet Napolitano. "If you want to get on the no-fly list you'll need a completed application and the $25 fee."

[Rex]

Many Democrats (myself included) will NEVER vote for Janet EVER again for ANY office because of how she SCREWED us and our state when she took the DHS job and left the loony, feuding, ideology over results GOP in charge of all branches of state government. I won't vote for McCain or Hayworth in that instance, but I WILL throw a bone to a third party. Janet should have emulated Ed Rendell who, when his name was linked to some Cabinet openings, said he had a job to finish in Pennsylvania.

The ONLY thing that might cause Janet to win an election in this state is the record for "governance" the Republicans have built since she resigned. You guys are an embarrassment and a disgrace...even at a time when you hold all the power there is to hold. The voters could be enticed to get all nostalgic for a Janet encore...even though the budget and tax deals she cut (despite sage advice from within her own caucus) are part of the reason we are in this mess...but count me as one Democrat of many who will NEVER forgive her for leaving Jan Brewer and the whack-jobs who run our Legislature in charge of Arizona.

[RonJ]

Rex: Really? "Sage advice" from her own caucus? Yet, those great "sages" all voted for increased spending at a time when the red flags were flying and the bells were going off that we were facing a downturn in the economy. All the Democrats ("sages" included) and a few Republicans passed those Napolitano "balanced" budgets. The Republican majority in the Legislature has been trying to correct the mess. The "whack jobs" in the Legislature are the ones who refuse to vote on needed cuts. The money isn't there to sustain the Napolitano spending.

[Peeves]

Janet, you're doing a heck of a job!

[Falcon 9]

Familiar with Myers-Briggs personality analysis? Janet is an ESTJ while classic leaders are ENTJ's. If she were a mechanic, she could give you the serial number, weight and manufacturer of every part but not have a clue as to how to make an engine run. The lack of any intuitive sense also leaves her completely lacking in selfawareness, so she can't adjust or redeploy her team to overcome her shortcomings. She just screams at her subordinates until things improve. Must be real fun in her office these days.

[nick]

Arizona and Kalifornia Dipsey twins.
Democrats spend like drunken road runners
during the bubble of imagined good times.

Being ugly broke is difficult to handle.

Janet was the big spender. Good job Brownie!

[Editor]

It was stupid of Napolitano to claim the system worked after the attempted bombing and her efforts to clarify her original statement were embarrassing. That's only part of the story and you missed or glossed over the rest.

It's worth pointing out that we don't have a TSA Director because the Republicans have blocked his nomination. And it was the Nigerians and Dutch, not the DHS or TSA, who let a terrorists with a bomb on the plane. Finally, Dutch law enforcement has determined that Umar Farouk AbdulMutallab did have a valid passport and visa in his possession when he boarded the flight to Detroit, another significant mistake in your pontification.