Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

The Best of Both Worlds....

January 31st is on Sunday and that means I have great news. 

First, today is payday.  If the end of the month falls on the weekend, you get paid early. 

The second piece of good news is that your lobbyist disclosure statements aren't due until Monday, because if the due date falls on a Sunday, you can file on the next business day. Awesome.

So if you live check-to-check and tend to procrastinate then this is like the best week ever. 

Soon to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize...

Osama Bin Laden's latest tape contains a warning  about the dangers of global climate change. 

The speech, which included almost no religious rhetoric, could be an attempt by the terror leader to give his message an appeal beyond Islamic militants.

...no religious rhetoric?  I guess the AP means "no religious rhetoric except the faith-based adherence to the doctrine of Global Warming and his attempts to either convert or coerce others to accept that doctrine."

Look Mom, I won the Nobel Prize

Google Alerts provides a great way to keep track of events and people in the news.  I have a ton of alerts set up, so anytime someone mentions Governor Brewer, a member of our Congressional Delegation or one of my top issues, Google emails a link to me.  Naturally I have my own name listed on the alerts; that way I can nuke the bastards respond if I'm mentioned by the media.

Occasionally I get an email with some odd pairings--such as the one that just crossed my screen and  includes my name on Congressman Mitchell's website.  Naturally I was a a bit curious until I followed the link and found that Mitchell had posted a copy of the Capital Times "10 Most Influential Arizonans of the Decade list."

You may recall that the Arizona Capitol Times compiled a list of the 10 most influential Arizonans of the last decade.  Naturally the list included Governor Napolitano and John McCain.  It also included Congressmen Kolbe and Mitchell and then there were a few names that probably caught some folks by surprise...like mine. 

I was going to blog about it, but I wasn't sure if the public would believe that I really deserved to be named one of the 10 most influential Arizonans of the Decade and I didn't want to embarrass myself.  Of course after predicting that Avatar would bomb, how much more embarrassed can I get?

So I decided to ask an independent expert to determine if I should link to the article.  I called my mom and asked her if I should mention the article.   She responded that I "totally deserved it." and that I should "go for it".  There you go--independent confirmation. 

So I was going to mention the article, but I got cold feet because I knew that someone would use the comment section to compare it to Obama's Nobel Prize.  

But then Mitchell put the article on his website, so I figured what the heck.  In the spirit of bipartisanship, I present the list of the 10 most influential Arizonans of the Decade as quoted by Harry Mitchell.

Must Have Been A Helluva View...

CBS News is reporting that the total cost of the Congressional junket to Copenhagen was over $1,000,000.  You will recall that Arizona Congresswoman Gabby Giffords attended the conference with her astronaut husband Mark Kelly. 

The most interesting factoid in the CBS story is that the Room and per diem cost $2,200---Per NIGHT. 

The funniest quote in the story was California Rep. Henry Waxman who justified the expense by saying the trip wasn't very fun...That's because it was so bitterly cold.  Seriously, I couldn't possibly make this stuff up.

Meanwhile, Giffords continues to ignore her blatant conflict of interest by overseeing bills that directly affect her husband.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, an Arizona Democrat who heads a key subcommittee, has blasted the notion of shifting money to outsource transporting astronauts to the international space station. Unless Congress makes the NASA budget a higher priority, Rep. Giffords said during a hearing last month, there won't be enough money for robust manned exploration efforts of any kind and U.S. human space flight could be "on hold for the foreseeable future."

Gifford's claims that it's OK for her to shill for NASA because her husband isn't actually EMPLOYED by NASA, he on long term ASSIGNMENT to NASA...

The real answer of course is that NASA is GOOD and Democrats are GOOD, so there's not really a conflict when she lobbies on behalf of her husband's employer, because, after all, they are all GOOD.  Now if her husband worked for Mobile Oil, or if she was a Republican, that would be BAD and hence an conflict. 

Why Did She Do It and What does it Mean?

Interesting post on Slate about the Cindy McCain ad...

I am trying to decide what exactly is so disturbing about this Cindy McCain ad against Proposition 8. Is it those dead drug-addict eyes? The strategic placement of the tape to hide any frown lines? The sanitarium background? The anorexic fade into nothingness? In my mind I imagine the whole thing as a protest not against banning gay marriage but against her husband who...

It's on TV, so it must be True...

Insiders have long known that Giffords, Kirkpatrick and Mitchell are in trouble.  This video shows that it's starting to become the conventional wisdom. 

Vulnerability is self reinforcing--the more vulnerable a candidate looks, the more vulnerable he becomes.  That's because vulnerable candidates draw top tier opponents and then they have trouble raising money as lobbyists start hedging their bets.

So,  after Gabby impaled herself on Nancy Pelosi's health care bill (not to mention Cap and Trade and TARP), Jonathan Paton announced that he would resign his Senate seat in order to run against her.  Paton looks credible enough that he managed to convince former Star and Capitol Times Reporter Daniel Scarpinato to come on board as his press guy.  It's rare that someone leaves a real job in order to work for a challenger--that's why you see so many twenty something Political Science majors working for candidates.  Scarpinato's decision--in addition to providing Paton's campaign with a high level of professional talent-- makes Paton look more credible as a candidate.  That credibility make it easier for Paton to raise money and harder for Giffords to raise money. 

After Ann Kirkpatrick's early missteps she was seen as vulnerable well before the health care debacle, that's why she's drawn a field that includes former Senate Majority leader Rusty Bowers. 

To be sure, the incumbents will still raise the most money, but when an incumbent is widely seen as vulnerable, the money is harder to raise, the endorsements are harder to secure and the volunteers are harder to come by. 

The opposite is true when a candidate is seen as unbeatble.  No one who is credible will challenge him, so he becomes a sure thing.  Democrats know that they can't beat John McCain in a general election so he's being challenged by Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman.  I'm sure Glassman is a nice guy but he's destined to be a trivia question...just like the last Democrat who challenged McCain... can come up with the name?...30 seconds...ah, too bad.  That would be Stu Starky who managed to get just over 20% against McCain in 2004. 

Of course, I've predicted that McCain will draw a real Democrat as an opponent, but that's more of a face saving ploy for her than a legitimate shot at taking the seat. 

The Laughing Karamargins

Jesse Kelly and Jonathan Paton have been pointing out that in the wake of the Massachusetts race, their CD 8 race against Gabby Giffords is looking quite winnable.

Gabby's office had this response. 

Giffords’ spokesman CJ Karamargin said the victory dance might be a bit premature and a little farfetched.“So, two candidates running in a primary seven months away are saying an election in Massachusetts is important to southeastern Arizona, is that right?” said Karamargin, laughing.

So isn't CJ Karamargin part of Gabby's official congressional staff?  It looks to me like she should be using a CAMPAIGN spokesman paid for by CAMPAIGN dollars to answer CAMPAIGN questions.

Don't you think?

Primary? What Primary?

I thought this was interesting.

Sen. John McCain's wife Cindy McCain is the newest face of a pro-gay marriage campaign.

Posing with tape over her mouth and a "NOH8" logo on her face, Cindy McCain was photographed for the NOH8 Campaign, which protests Proposition 8, the California proposition passed in 2008 banning same-sex marriage.

No matter what you think about the issue of Gay Marriage, ask yourself this question...how do the Republicans who are likely to vote in an August 24th primary feel about Gay Marriage?  The obvious answer is that most Republicans--like the majority of voters--believe that marriage is between one man and one woman.  

But that's not the reason that voters will be offended by the ad.  Cindy McCain's ad isn't offensive because she has decided to support Gay marriage--lots of people support gay marriage (a minority to be sure, but still lots).  The ad is offensive because it casts opponents of gay marriage as Hate Criminals.  Which side of the political spectrum is supposed to be responsible for putting duct tape over Cindy's mouth and scrawling initials on her face?   Is this how Cindy views the 1,258,355 Arizonans who voted in favor of Arizona's version of Prop 8?  Does John McCain agree with his wife that those 1.2 million Arizonans were voting out of hate?  Does he see me as one of the people who put tape on his wife's face?  Are our world views that far appart?

The ad also calls back into question McCain's already convoluted view of the Gay marriage issue.  He opposes a federal gay marriage amendment but supported the Arizona version of Proposition 8.  He argued that this apparant conflict was actually a strong state's rights stance.  Ok, I can see that.  But Proposition 8 was approved by California voters and the NO H8 campaign is part of an effort to overturn the Proposition in federal court.  That's opposite of the state's rights view. 

Of course some will argue that Cindy McCain's views don't necessarily reflect John's views and that's a good point.  However, those who have crafted this campaign don't see much difference.   The title of the ad is "Redefining Republican" and it's clear that Cindy is in the ad as John's wife.

In the year since we've started the NOH8 Campaign, we've often been surprised at some of the different individuals who have approached us showing their support. Few, though, have surprised us more than Cindy McCain - the wife of Senator John McCain...

Frankly, voters aren't going to see much difference either.  That's because we don't know which McCain is the real one.  Is he the Maverick Conservative teaming up with Sarah Palin, fighting pork and supporting states rights?  Or is he the establishment moderate--darling of the New York Times-- teaming up with the Liberal Democrats to oppose Tax Cuts, Domestic Drilling, and gun rights?

Republican voters know which McCain they would be willing to send back to Washington.  In the next 8 months they will decide which one is the real McCain...Cindy's ad pushes that decision in the wrong direction. 

No More Gatekeepers...

Perhaps the most important aspect of the internet revolution is that the Mainstream Media no longer get to dictate what's news and what's not.  Here's another example of a homemade You Tube video that costs next to nothing to produce and does a good job getting its message out. 

I think this one is a bit long...and I found myself distracted when I realized how much hair the guy from ER used to have.  However, I think the underlying message is pretty effective. 

The important part is that no one in New York or downtown Phoenix decided whether or not you could see this video. 

I Love the Smell of Panic in the Morning

Jonathan Paton has announced that he is going to run against Congresswoman Gabby Giffords and the race got off to a bizarre start when, on the night before Paton's announcement was released, the Pima County Democratic Party issued a press release alleging that Paton was finally convinced to run because he received a personal plea from George W. Bush.

The Democrats have not produced any evidence of this rather outrageous suggestion and Paton has denied that a call occurred.  Bush for his part was in Washington with Bill Clinton and President Obama raising support for humanitarian relief to Haiti...so it seems pretty far fetched that he has been spending time thinking about Arizona's 8th Congressional District.  

The press release is quite instructive, it not only has the feel of panic, but it also shows how the Democratic Party is going to spin the race.  I've printed the actual press release and then in blue, I've added what the Party was REALLY thinking.

Paton's run for Congress reportedly pushed by former President Bush

Luis Heredia, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, (and former Railroad Lobbyist)  offered this statement on Sen. Paton: "After months of speculation, Jonathan Paton was apparently convinced by former President George W. Bush  (Dude, C.J.'s got this friend whose barber is like totally sure that he heard that Bush was on the phone in a You tube clip last week and it looked like he dialed "520" and that must mean that he's calling Tucson, so he's either calling Jim Click to buy a new Ford, or he's talking Jonathan Paton into running against Gabby)  that he could challenge one of Arizona's hardest-working members of the House of Representatives. (I mean like flying to Copenhagen to have brunch with Hugo Chavez, meeting her husband at the Indy 500 and shilling on behalf of her husband's employer is like, totally exausting)  "It is disturbing to learn how Jonathan reached his decision. (Of course, we have no fricking clue how he reached his decision, but George Bush--worst President in history--MUST have had something to do with it because after all, he like totally outed Valerie Plame and LIED about Iraq which is why President Obama has pulled our troops out of Iraq and closed Guantanamo...Damn.) It raises serious questions about whether he will continue to advance the failed Bush policies that resulted in greatest (sic) economic meltdown since the Great Depression. (Bush really F'd up the economy.  I mean unemployment was like 6 percent and the deficit was like $400 billion...but now that the stimulus has taken effect, the Government owns General Motors, and Wall Street Billionaires--who all vote Democratic--have been protected, we got Americans working again and unemployment is down to...well,  and the deficit has fallen to...Damn.) "With Jonathan Paton leading the charge, Arizonans suffered as Republican legislative leaders spent most of 2009 paralyzed by bickering and then eventually joining forces with Gov. Brewer to enact devastating cuts to our schools, universities and critical services. (Governor Napolitano managed to increase the state budget from $6 billion to $11 billion and now that the state is bankrupt some of those increases are getting unwound.)  Their approach has failed, and the budget crisis is far from resolved. (yeah, he needs to accept our plan for a huge tax increase) We are surprised that Paton, (Damn right we are surprised, can't we have Bee again?) who is an entrenched part of the GOP problem  at the state Capitol, (ie. part of the "majority" unlike Gabby who didn't even get to touch a gavel) feels qualified to ask voters to grant him even greater responsibilities."   "Paton enters a crowded Republican primary.  (Gabby is so weak and this year is going to be such a disaster that every Precinct Committeeman thinks he can take her out.) Jesse Kelly has already locked up Republican support from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, Congressman Trent Franks, and Barry Goldwater Jr. (please let her run against Jesse Kelly, please please please.)"Historically, the 8th congressional district has elected hard-working, independent leaders like Congresswoman Giffords. (Actually, the district elected Democrat Jim McNulty but then turned him out after one term and then elected  Republican Jim Kolbe for the next 22 years.  So the current race, you know, fits the same pattern...damn.  But the reporters won't know that because they were like in elementary school then.)  These voters have consistently rejected candidates like Paton, who advance partisan rhetoric over real solutions."   (And when we mean "real solutions" we mean the Stimulus, the Bank Bailout and nationalized health care..you know, like the ones Gabby voted for.) ###  (The end, over and out, Sianara, turn out the lights, the fat lady done sung.)