All Your Base Are Belong to Us.

Prop 200, the proposal to raise the bed tax, is on the ballot in Scottsdale today.  Since there's no organized opposition, the tax is paid by non-residents and the election is at such an odd time, it's a good bet that the tax is going to pass--unless, of course, it doesn't.

If the tax fails, you can add "vote by mail" to your list of Democratic Party reforms that have backfired. The  list is getting rather lengthy--Campaign finance "reform", clean elections, term limits, Prop 105, opening primaries to independents and Independent Redistricting have all been overwhelmed by unintended consequences.

Which brings me to early voting.  Let me be frank, in the modern era* Democrats traditionally wanted to make it as easy as possible to vote and Republicans traditionally wanted voters to be more, well, motivated. 

The theory is that for most elections, the core Republican base is a bit larger than the core Democratic base, so in a low turnout race, the advantage goes to the Republicans.  Democrats responded with devices like "Motor Voter" which allowed people to register to vote when they obtained a driver license and "vote by mail" which they hoped would tip the balance by bringing more Democrats to the polls. 

It hasn't worked out that way.  In fact, while my only evidence is anecdotal, it appears that the "permanent early voter list" is quite conservative.   

That's especially true in ultra low turnout elections.  Think about the Scottsdale election.  It's timed just like a classic school bond override election--second week of March or April, when no one is paying attention.  In the old days, the only ones who showed up to vote in the bond override elections were the public employees and bond lawyers who benefited directly from the tax increase.  In other words, the turnout was so low that only the hard core of the Democratic base went to the polls.

Now the entire permanent early voter list gets a ballot.  The Scottsdale tax increase should have sailed to victory with an 11% turnout.  But with vote by mail, the turnout will be more like 40% or even higher--and who are those incremental 30%?  Motivated (read "Conservative") Republicans.  The days of the spending lobby dominating ultra low turnout elections is over. 

Which naturally leads me the Billion dollar tax increase that the legislature has placed on the May 18th ballot.  That would traditionally be an Ultra Low Turnout date.  Ten years ago, we could have expected that a tax increase on a low turnout date would pass with turnout in the mid teens as the spending lobby made sure that their members voted while no one else bothered to show up. 

However in May, we are likely to see unheard of turnout for an off cycle election and those incremental voters will be Republicans.

We'll see what happens in Scottsdale today--again, with no opposition and non-residents paying the tax, Prop 200 should pass.  But if it fails, you can thank the reformers who made sure that voters automatically received a ballot for each and every election--including pre-paid postage for those who don't want to pay more in taxes, or even pay for a stamp.

*Footnote:  Naturally if I'm going to say that Democrats want to make it easier vote, I have to confine the discussion to the modern era. That's because the from 1864 to 1964, Democrats went to great lengths to ensure that the only people who could vote were white people. And devices like all white primaries, poll taxes, grandfather clauses and literacy tests obviously had a dampening effect on turnout. 

Comments

[James L.]

Term limits is a Democratic initiated reform? Really. The others seem to be but term limits came out of Sage Brush Revolution of the late '70's and '80's. It gained considerable ground in the early '90's with the last, Perot inspired, anti-incumbant movement. No politician, Dem or GOP, favors term limits.

[Steve F.]

Election Results here:

http://www.scottsdaleaz.gov/elections/030910_ElectionResults.asp

Only early ballots counted at this time (8:30pm).

So far, the tax is winning at 56.24%..

All the other props are winning at 76-81%, which gives credence to Greg's hypothesis.

And the only reason that this appears to be passing is certainly because it targets people visiting the state, not residents.

This...does not exactly bode well for future ballot props increasing taxes on residents.

[ron]

Greg, you wrote,

"Now the entire permanent early voter list gets a ballot. The Scottsdale tax increase should have sailed to victory with an 11% turnout. But with vote by mail, the turnout will be more like 40% or even higher--and who are those incremental 30%? Motivated (read "Conservative") Republicans. The days of the spending lobby dominating ultra low turnout elections is over."

Huh?

At 10 PM, the news resports were that the vote was going 56% in favor to 44% opposed. So where are those motivated voters you are talking about?