Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

There's a Tidal Wave Coming.

This poll is "adults" not "voters", but I think the results  make it clear that the immigration issue is going to go national.

NEW YORK, April 29 (UPI) -- Seven in 10 U.S. adults support arresting people who can't prove they're in the United States legally, a poll about Arizona's new immigration law indicated.

The Angus Reid Public Opinion poll of 1,002 American adults asked respondents if they'd want four guidelines in Arizona's immigration law enacted in their own state.

The law, the nation's toughest, seeks to identify, prosecute and deport illegal immigrants and gives police broad powers to stop people on suspicion of being in the United States illegally.

Seventy-one percent of poll respondents said they'd support requiring their own police to determine people's U.S. status if there was "reasonable suspicion" the people were illegal immigrants, the poll found.

An equal percentage supported arresting those people if they couldn't prove they were legally in the United States.

Setting the Record Straight

If you are looking for an analysis of what SB 1070 really does, you would do well to start with this New York Times Op Ed.

Presumably, the government lawyers who do so will actually read the law, something its critics don’t seem to have done. The arguments we’ve heard against it either misrepresent its text or are otherwise inaccurate. As someone who helped draft the statute, I will rebut the major criticisms individually:

The coverage of SB 1070 has been shockingly inaccurate.  Some of the misinformation results from incompetence.  The Republic's Bob Rob points out that some of the misinformation is intentional. 

Brewer Gets a Bounce from SB 1070

This is interesting.

Last week, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer [R] signed an immigration law that launched a national debate. It has also at least temporarily helped her own chances of remaining Arizona’s governor.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state shows that 56% now approve of the way Brewer is performing her role as governor. Two weeks ago, just 40% offered their approval.

The Voice of Goliath

My son grew up on a Disney cartoon called Gargoyles.  It was standard superhero fare about a group of Gargoyles who protected the planet from evil.  The main gargoyle was named Goliath and he had a very distinctive voice provided by actor Keith David. 

Keith David has done a lot of voice over work since then, but every time my son and I hear him, we say "hey, there's Goliath."   

I'm sure that you have heard Keith David's voice recently because he does the voice overs for John McCain's commercials.  Isn't that ironic?  In a David versus Goliath battle between McCain and Hayworth, the voice of John McCain is played by the actor who is universally known as the voice of Goliath.  Dude, that's awesome. 

Interesting take on SB 1070

Here's a pretty rational analysis.

Arizona’s offense is to attempt to enforce the nation’s immigration laws, in the absence of any serious commitment to do so on the part of the federal government or our political class.

It would be Funny if it Weren't So Sad...

Political Insider has printed a poll in which Terry Goddard appears to have suddenly gained the lead in the race for Governor.  There used to be a day when journalists were actually skeptical and didn't simply print every press release that came across their desks.  Those days are long gone. 

So what do you do when you see a poll that is so different from previous polls and so counter to what we are seeing in the rest of the country?   Well, I'm a blogger, so I have to actually veryify stuff before I print it.  So the first thing I would do is look at the methodology to see if it's accurate. 

It should only take a few seconds to notice this:

The survey, which polled 813 Arizona adults,

Adults?  Look, there's a tecnhical term for people who matter in elections.  They are called "voters", and they are not the same as "adults".  Becuase while all "voters" are "adults", only a small percentage of "adults" are "voters".  That means that if you ask 815 "adults" how they are going to "vote", the answers you get are "meaningless."

And what do you do when you are a "journalist" and you get a press release that's so flawed as to be "meaningless"?  One would hope that you chuck it--that's what a blogger would do.

Battle of the Superlatives

John McCain is saying that the situation at the border is really bad.

The Arizona Republican called the situation in his state "the worst I've ever seen," saying ineffective border enforcement has resulted in drugs pouring into the southwestern United States from Mexico.

Meanwhile, it was only last week that DHS Secretary Napolitano claimed  that the Border is "more under control than it's ever been."

I'm going to have to go with McCain on this one.

Russell Pearce Kills Cap and Trade

The Arizona Immigration bill has created a national firestorm and Congress is shifting priorities in order to contain the fire before it sweeps the country.  Naturally, Congress's sudden shift in priorities will leave some things undone, and I guess we now know what that something is...

A top Senate negotiator on climate change believes that a sudden turn by Senate Democrats to immigration could “destroy” any hope of a major climate and energy bill this year.

“This comes out of left field,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), after hearing that Democratic leaders may now push immigration reform ahead of a climate bill. “I’m working as earnestly as I can to craft climate and energy independence, clean air and jobs, and now we’re being told that we’re going to immigration. We haven’t done anything to prepare the body of the country for immigration.”

This shift of priorities doesn't just mark a delay of climate change legislation, it marks an end to climate change legislation.  That's because as the planet continues to cool, democrats face heavy losses in in the fall, and the economy continues to falter, congress will never again be able to focus on a climate bill. 

The window has closed and Russell Pearce closed it. 

The SB 1070 Bump

The Center for Arizona Policy held its annual dinner last week and Governor Brewer--fresh from signing SB 1070--received a long and enthusiastic standing ovation.  Two months ago the group of Conservatives is likely to have given her polite applause with a smattering of golf claps. 

What a difference a signature makes. 

The First Wave

This just in from Utah.

Unless Sen. Bob Bennett's political fortunes change dramatically in the next two weeks, he could become Utah's first incumbent U.S. senator to lose his party's nomination in seven decades.

It looks like Bennett's career is going to be defined by one vote. 

"I think he's guilty of economic treason. I don't think there's any other Republican in the Senate that's more responsible for the recent financial collapse than him," said Friedbaum.

It's a frequent criticism of Bennett, who sits on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs committee. Bennett has also come under fire for supporting the banking bailout, although he's quick to note he opposed a bailout of the auto industry.

Utah has a caucus system in which delegates to the convention are selected by precinct, so it's certainly different from our primary system.  In fact, the caucus system acts like a primary with ultra low turnout...kind of like what you get when you hold an Arizona Primary election in August.

If Bennett loses, you are going to start to see an increasing realization that McCain is vulnerable.