Each election cycle, I try to make a prediction that goes against the conventional wisdom. If I think there's a race or trend that hasn't been noticed by other pundits, I like to call it to everyone's attention. Sometimes that works out really well and sometimes, well, not so much.
If you are looking for a race to watch, my pick of the week is--Wendy Rogers over David Schapira for the District 17 Senate Seat. Rogers and Schapira are running for the Senate seat formerly held by Harry Mitchell and recently vacated by Meg Burton Cahill. The District 17 Senate seat was held by Republicans until Mitchell defeated Gary Richardson in 2000. The Democratic Party has never taken the seat for granted and has done a good job running strong candidates who have City Government Name ID in Mitchell and Cahill. (Her husband Dennis served on the Tempe City Council for 12 years and conveniently has a senior center named after him). Schapira has legislative experience but doesn't have an additional source of name ID, and he has maturity issues which will likely hold him back.
Rogers is straight talking, hard working, precinct walking former Air force pilot who may just sneak up on Schapira. The race is getting some national attention and Conservative Radio Host/blogger Hugh Hewitt is hosting an event for Rogers in Tempe on July 13th.
In handicapping the race, I would say that Schapira is the weakest Democrat to try to keep the seat in the Democrat column, while Rogers is the strongest Republican to attempt to take it back. Rogers is working night and day, has walked dozens of neighborhoods and knocked on thousands of doors. She's tenacious, has a great personal story, makes a good 30 second impression and has been able to raise money. On the macro level, it's looking like a Republican year and the massive decline in youth enthusiasm that we have seen from the 2008 cycle will hit Tempe hard.
Don't get me wrong, District 17 is going to be to a tough district to pick up*, but Rogers has an excellent shot.
By the way, if you want to RSVP for the Hewitt event contact Danielle Roberts at 602-920-1107 / Roberts.Danielle@gmail.com
Footnote: In 2012 the redistricting commission will be forced to expand the District 17 borders which will likely swing the district back to the Republican column.
I agree. Rogers is solid and very impressive. Looking forward to watching her debate Schapira. David's a nice guy, but Wendy has "gravitas."
Posted by: RonJ | July 07, 2010 at 06:00 PM
I met her a month or so ago. She's impressive. She also connected very well with a room full of people. Scott Brown has his truck and she has a bicycle. She is putting in more than enough work to make this happen. I think this is a decent prediction.
Posted by: Stewie | July 07, 2010 at 08:00 PM
My impression after seeing her initial announcement was that I was surprised she was not running for Congress because she seemed too serious a candidate for the state lege. However, I was informed by some of the denizens of Sonoran Alliance that she is a moderate RINO who is not strong enough on abortion and other issues and is a McCain confidant so must be for amnesty. Makes her sound like one of these 'moderate' conservatives.
Posted by: todd | July 07, 2010 at 09:43 PM
Oh Todd...your slip is showing!
I dare you to say those things to her face!
Wendy Rogers is the most impressive candidate in any race this year, at any level. She may not be running for Congress...yet.
She will make Shapira look like an amateur and that will be just on resume alone. Let her get started on the issues and he will be seriously overshadowed.
No brainer!
Posted by: Ann | July 08, 2010 at 12:02 AM
Nothing personal, Todd, but you (and apparently the "denizens of Sonoran Alliance") have no idea what you're talking about. To call Wendy a McCain "confidant" greatly understates to the level of insult her qualifications and experience. She's definitely her own candidate with her own positions and beliefs, developed from her experience as a military officer, small business owner, parent and community member. I actually gasped when I saw you refer to her as a RINO, since she's probably one of the most thoughtful intelligent conservatives I've ever met. Maybe she doesn't parrot every position you'd like her to, but you can't dispute her credentials and her conviction.
Posted by: Dan Gibson | July 08, 2010 at 12:45 AM
Ann and Dan,
Please go back and read my comment. I said my impression was that she was an impressive candidate and I stated she was of the calibre to run for Congress even though I am as far from a conservative as you will find posting here. I then pointed out what people on the archconservative Sonoran Alliance had to say about her and tied it to Greg's post about 'moderate' conservatives in The Golden Arches. If you have a problem with people calling her a RINO I suggest you talk to your own party's base since I have no interest in labeling anyone as such.
Posted by: todd | July 08, 2010 at 01:30 AM
Todd: Sarcasm doesn't read well on the internet, but your position is duly noted.
Posted by: Dan Gibson | July 09, 2010 at 01:55 AM
The kiss of death. Greg also picked Chris DeRose to win the GOP primary in LD 17 in 2006.
Posted by: James Underwood | July 09, 2010 at 12:34 PM
The Dems have to be nervous. Especially now that Steve May has stepped forward to join the Republican ticket in LD 17.
Wendy/Steve....smart, smart, smart move for Tempe
Posted by: Mike Triggs | July 09, 2010 at 01:24 PM
Are you talking about the same Steve May who preys on the homeless? I bet Wendy won't want to have anything to do with him.
http://the-zone-q-zine.blogspot.com/2010/07/mayday-mayday.html
Posted by: Matt | July 25, 2010 at 01:56 AM
To vote for ANY Republican candidate for office in Arizona is morally and politically repugnant. These are the people who have turned our state into a national pariah and disgrace, institutionalized racism with the infamous S.B. 1070 and brought Arizona to the brink of financial ruin with their anachronistic, "kill the poor" economic policies. There is a very good chance that the white supremacist, neo-Fascist Russell Pearce will stand for Majority Leader and that MissusRogers, like all God-fearing AZGOP rabid dogs, will support Pearce's bid.
I realize my vote will make little or no difference but I will cast it for Harry Mitchell, Terry Goddard, David Schiapira, Ben Arredondo and Ed Ableser rather than Teabagger lunatics such as Pearce, Brewer, May, McCain or Rogers. When I was growing up, there were 2 kinds of Republicans: moderates and conservatives. Now, the 2 camps are the old-line conservatives and Tea Party nutcases. The last thing Arizona and America need are either kind of these "beautiful mutants."
Posted by: Peter | September 16, 2010 at 10:44 PM