Predictions are Hard...Especially when they are about the Future.

Any March Madness Office Pool winner will tell you that the only way to win is to be able to pick the upsets.  Sure, it's easy to go along with the crowd and just pick the favorite in each bracket, but that's lame and it's no way to win the pool. 

I don't know anything about College Basketball, but I know a thing or two about politics, and the rules are the same.  Anyone can list the favorites, but it's the upsets that count.   So here are my thoughts on the favorites as well as picks for some upsets.

First, let me explain the premise that colors my analysis.  Remember last year when we realized that the Primary had been moved from early September to late August?  At that point the chattering class was pointing out that turnout would be incredibly low.  Then in the last year, we saw the rise of the Tea Party, the economic recovery that wasn't, a massive shift away from the Democrats and an outpouring of resentment  against incumbents.  This caused the political class to believe that the motivated, ticked off voters would vote in huge numbers.  However, turnout is indeed low. 

What does this all mean? 

It means that the 20% of voters who vote in the Republican primary are the Republican hard core and they are REALLY ticked off. 

Ok.  So, what are the implications?  Well, for one thing it's impossible to poll in this environment because none of the turnout models have been based on a low turnout of almost exclusively ticked off Republicans.   So we have no idea what the numbers look like.  But here's how the low turnout could affect a few key races.

Hayworth v. McCain.

Conventional wisdom is McCain by twenty points.  But now that the Governor's race has fizzled, the Senate race is the top of the ticket.  McCain has 100% name ID and he has done a good job vilifying Hayworth.  But Conservatives really don't like him--Amnesty, Bailouts, McCain Feingold, voting no on the Bush tax cuts--I could go on.  I'm not going to say that Hayworth is going to win--but I'm not saying that it's impossible.  Of course, after the $20 million carpet bombing that Hayworth has endured, the number could even be well over 20 points.  We simply don't know in this race.

CD 5

Schweikert wins CD5 handily.  Turnout doesn't matter; he has sent enough mail and run enough TV that he would have won a high-turnout race.  And he's done enough walking and organized enough house parties that he will win a low turnout race. 

The real question is how long it takes Ward to move back to San Francisco. 

CD 3

Conventional wisdom is that Quayle was the favorite, but self destructed with his handling of the Dirty Scottsdale revelations.  That means that Moak is likely to take the race--assuming that Quayle self destructed early enough.

I think the candidate to watch is Waring.  He's represented the district for many years and he walks door to door every weekend.  Remember that the race has 10 candidates and at least 7 of them are credible.  So you can win with a really low vote count.  CD 3 is actually looking like a large scale legislative race.  That means that Waring's shoe leather is likely to offset Moak's money. 

CD 1

This is a really tough race to call.  Beauchamp started strong but seemed to have faded.  Gosar started slow but gained a lot of momentum.  Sidney Hay won last time, and got in late this time but had enough residual name ID and organization that she got up to speed quickly.  I don't think the pundit class can agree on a favorite, but it's likely that the conventional wisdom is Sidney Hay.

However, if you factor in my turnout assumptions and recal that Bowers is the only one who has held office before and that he's the only LDS candidate and add that the Legislative District 5 Senate race is a slug fest that will increase turnout in that part of the district and then factor in that there are a lot of credible candidates to divide up the vote--I think Bowers has a good shot in a low turnout race.

CD 8

Paton underestimated Kelly and it may cost him, but I don't think so.  Once Paton focused on Kelly, the race shifted.  Paton has been raising plenty of money and the Tucson Tea Party folks have managed to get the word out that Kelly has been earning a living off Stimulus money for the last couple years.  That race will be close, but should go to Paton.

CD 6

This isn't even a race.  Jeff Smith is taking on Jeff Flake.  Smith has no money and no chance--in fact, he should lose by 20 points.  Flake has led the nation on Congressional reform by eliminating the corruption that comes from Earmarks and pork.  However, fiscal conservatism and limited government aren't the issue this cycle.  The issue is immigration and Flake is on the wrong side of it--and don't forget that he sponsored a Cap and Trade tax*.  (Skip down to the next paragraph and read the correction from Jeff.)

Greg,

Enjoyed your analysis.  Insightful as always.  One point I need to clarify is that I have sponsored a payroll tax/carbon tax swap, not a Cap and Trade tax.  There is no caping or trading under my legislation.  Just a swap between payroll taxes and carbon taxes.

Again, great analysis.  On to Tuesday!

Jeff

If Flake wins by less than 20 points against an unknown and unfunded opponent, he will be demonstrating a surprising weakness that's likely to be taken advantage of next cycle....and you can forget his chances of getting through a primary for the US Senate. 

Attorney General

It's going to be a conservative sweep, except in the AG race.  Thomas is technically the more conservative candidate, but I don't think Conservatives trust his judgment.  He's going to get crushed in the out counties and frankly, I don't even think he'll win Maricopa County.  Horne should win this race.

Maricopa  County Attorney

The Republic has steadfastly refused to cover this race.  I think the goal was to ensure that Montgomery never had a chance to build name ID.  The conventional wisdom is Romley by a healthy margin.  Under my turnout scenario, I think it's Montgomery by 5 points. 

On Square Off, Stan Barnes pointed out that my prediction of a Montgomery victory conflicted with my prediction of a Horne victory.   That's a good point, but I think people will are wise to Thomas and will vote for Horne.  Also remember that Montgomery is running in Maricopa County and Thomas is running state wide. Thomas will get crushed in Pima County.

Treasurer

Conventional wisdom would tend toward Ducey because of his financial advantage.  While, I don't think the hits on Ducey over his property taxes and corporate filings are fair--the CEO doesn't handle routine paperwork--I think that those problems make him vulnerable to Democratic attack. 

I voted for Leff.  I think she's the most credible candidate in the race and is the most likely to be able to compete with Andrei Cherny. 

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Dugan is a really nice person, but Huppenthal wins big.  Hupp is the Senate Education Chairman, former Senate Leadership and he's been elected for the past 16 years.   He's done a great job which is why the Democrats hate him so much.  I have never seen such vitreole heaped on one person as the Dems have piled on Huppenthal. 

The Democratic Primary is going to be fun to watch.  Penney Kotterman exemplifies the education establishment, but Jason Williams beat the establishment candidate (Slade Mead) last cycle.  I think it would be fun to see Williams beat Kotterman. 

LD 5 and LD 11

There are two legislative races that feature moderates who are well financed against Conservatives who aren't.  If my turnout model is right, then the Conservatives will do better than expected.  That gives the edge to Allen in her race against Konopnicki and to Davis in his race against Driggs.  If both Conservatives win then Russell Pearce has a good shot at being Senate President. 

So those are my predictions.  As you can tell from the Truman picture and the title, I recognize that it's easy to make a fool of myself, but those are my thoughts.

I'm interested to know what you think.  

Comments

[Matt]

I'd agree with you on Paton vs Kelly. Even though Paton got off to a slow start, I believe the Kelly campaign do not understand Paton's popularity in the district. Voters want to be able to beat Giffords and understand that Paton can do it, and Kelly probably won't. Giffords has endorsed Paton by all the negative mailers sent out by the democrat committee. Giffords can beat Kelly and is worried about Paton and wants him gone in the primary.

[Thane Eichenauer, 2010 Libertarian candidate for Arizona State Treasurer]

You may not be able to bet on the Senate Republican primary but somebody is:

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=mccain

Does Hayworth or McCain win? Who cares, they both are uninspiring Republicans, with McCain earning slightly more repulsion in my family straw poll. Could Jim Deakin win? Sure he could - he is on the ballot isn't he?

Given that CD3 and CD5 campaigns are split among Shadegg style conservatives Paulina Morris and Susan Bitter Smith (both of which draw from the John McCain Republican and independent voter pool) might end up winning with 11% and 17%.

[AZ Samuel]

You have NO clue in LD-5 Greg. That's all I can say about that at this point.

[Comment]

The tough part about being part of the political elite is that you don't mix it up a lot with normal people. These are people that vote of course, but just barely. They just don't pay a lot of attention to politics. In the past they have voted for Schweikert, Thomas, and McCain and will continue to do so. I know you think Thomas has a lot of negatives, but they're not the kind of negatives that people care about, even if they do hear about it. Quayle, they'll vote him in as well because the negative story is too easily dismissed and, like Thomas' detractors, it's just not easy to understand the argument against them.

One needs to pretend to understand the everyman, staring at his ballot, in trying to predict outcomes in a democracy. People make the easy choices, not the smart ones.

[Steve Calabrese]

Greg, I hope you're dramatically underestimating the excellent conservative reputation Thayer Vershoor has when calling the Treasurer race. Should he become Treasurer, I think conservatives will have a much clearer picture of where the money is going.

[Political Junkie]

4.) CD-1: Gosar wins. Hay's entry proves to be too late. Gosar's momentum, strong endorsements (Sarah Palin, etc.), monetary advantage and successful messaging wins out. Beauchamp's cash disadvantage and erosion of his base by Gosar (amongst Tea Partiers, PCs, etc.) proves fatal.

5.) CD-6: Big win by Flake. Most of Jeff Smith's votes will not be in support of him but rather in protest of Flake's immigration and cap-and-trade policies.

6.) CD-8: Jesse Kelly pulls off the upset. Jesse Kelly has developed an impressively extensive and energized base of support. Paton's late-entry into the race, failure to take Kelly's candidacy seriously (until it was too late) and Gifford's negative barrage against Paton will prove decisive (the latter in suppressing would-be Paton supporters' turnout).

7.) Attorney General: Andrew Thomas. Thomas's close association with Arpaio, conservative bonafides, reputation for being tough on crime and illegal immigration, and support from top law enforcement officers wins out over the attacks on Thomas's ethical behavior and abuses of power. Horne's defense against being labeled pro-amnesty comes too late and his La Raza stunt (asking for cameras in the La Raza's classroom)only helps narrow the gap in Pima County. Sheriff Joe's mailers and TV ads attacking Horne prove devastating.

8.) Maricopa County Attorney: Bill Montgomery over Romley by a 10 to 20 point margin. Conservative Republicans' disdain for moderate/liberal Republican Romley proves decisive. Romley's attack on Sheriff Joe, heavy reliance on Democratic fundraising and opposition to SB1070 prove to be political suicide in a low-turnout Republican primary. Sheriff Joe's mailers and TV ads against Romley knock him out for the count.

9.) Treasurer: Doug Ducey. Ducey's tremendous monetary advantage and well-designed mailers and TV spots prove decisive. Ducey wins enough early votes to overcome the late attacks against him. Leff and Verschoor are too little known outside their legislative districts. Ducey is left weakened against a formidable foe in November.

10.) Superintendent of Public Instruction: John Huppenthal. Huppenthal wins by a high double digit lead over Dugan. Question: Where AREN'T Huppenthal's signs? The Democrats' failed smear attacks and failed lawsuits against Huppenthal backfire giving him strong name ID and the reputation as the clear front-runner in the race. Dugan's campaign never catches fire. Dugan who?

11.) Corporation Commission: Brenda Burns and Gary Pierce. Wong's financial disadvantage to a teamed up Burns and Pierce proves decisive. Wong's name ID from previously holding the position is overshadowed by his reputation amongst the conservative base as being moderate. The fact that he was Napolitano's appointee in the first place doesn't help.

LD-5 Senate: Sylvia Allen. Despite Knopnicki's large financial advantage and name ID, Allen wins out. Knopnicki's untruthful attacks against Allen blow up in his face. Saying conservative Allen is pro-amnesty, amongst other smears, is absurd and the conservative base knows it!

LD-11 Senate: Rich Davis. Despite Patterson's assertion, both Republican candidates are well-financed. Conservative Davis has the money to go toe-to-toe with moderate Driggs and should pull it out.

My Upset Prediction (General Election)

LD-17 Senate: Wendy Rogers.
Moderate Republican Wendy Rogers beats liberal Democrat David Schapira in Democrat-controlled LD-17. Wendy Rogers' tireless work ethic, smarts, tremendous grassroots support and appeal to moderate/conservative Democrats and independents wins out over the lackluster Schapira.

[Political Junkie]

My Predictions, Given a Low Turnout:

1.) McCain over Hayworth. McCain will win but, due to low turnout, by not as much as predicted. Deakin will pull 5 - 10% of the vote preventing even a highly energized Hayworth base from being able to pull off an upset.

2.) CD-5: Schweikert. Ward second. Schweikert's name ID, effective media campaign, grassroots initiatives and GOTV efforts will bring out his strong conservative base. Ward's moderate carpet-bagging image, poor media campaign (was WAY too late in releasing so-so quality TV ads) will relegate him to 2nd.

3.) CD-3: Quayle pulls it out. Quayle's release of the "attack-Obama-ad-to-distract-from-The-Dirty-Scandal" successfully works. The Dirty's founder's tie-in with Parker's PR frontman and fundraiser Jason Rose undermines the damage of the Quayle-Dirty connection and hurts Parker. Moak's surge is too late. Waring is given no media attention and receives McCain's support too late. Quayle's impressive grassroots team and GOTV efforts seal the deal.

[sunset trail]

Low turnout? CD5 already has 27% turnout among Republicans. More early ballots have been processed already this year than were in the 2008 primary -- that's with 4 more days of mail delivery and drop off to the polls still to go. It would be very surprising if the totals in this race do not surpass 2008. Add 10 percentage points to your 24% model, then let's talk. Remember the county recorder is reporting overall numbers, which includes D's and others (which you've already demonstrated have a tougher time getting a ballot). Increased Republican turnout in an off-year election = pissed off used to be moderates?

[no horse]

Does anyone have any statistics on how many people vote by mail? I'll be a poll worker tomorrow (about a 14 hour day, ugh) and I'm guessing that most people who are interested in this election will have already voted by mail.

[sunset trail]

no horse, you are correct in your guess, although it depends on the average age of the precinct you are working in. Do everyone a favor and watch the early ballots that are dropped off -- you'll probably see close to an equal number of those to the number of people who actually vote at the polling place.

[I don't want Thomas to know my name]

My prediction?

Andrew Thomas is indicted the day after he can no longer be replaced on the ballot.

[Dr. Lao]

I live in CD5, and still can't find one candidate that I can support. 2 of them are multiple losers, one is a carpetbagger, one is nude frequently and one has a history of bankruptcies. I want new blood, hoping that Bitter Smith finally gets the message that voters don't really want her.

I hope that enough people are smart enough to not vote for Thomas, as his corruption rises each day, and, for the sake of this county, Romley has to win, to keep Arpaio and his goons in check.

[AZElectionMadness]

As the consistent winner of our office March Madness pool, i agree the key is to pick the upsets.

The other key is to remember not every game will be an upset.

Greg, I think you forgot this critical point in you predictions, and underestimate the power of television.

[Empire]

I agree with the prediction on CD3, Waring wins narrowly.

Moak and Quayle would both have major problems in a general election, even in a lopsided Republican district. Moak's shady business dealings with his "non-profit" foundation are especially troublesome.

But I could also see Vernon Parker being a contender in this race.

[Mandolyn]

Sunset Trail- I just wanted to point something out that people are mistaken about.. The early ballots must be received by tomorrow 7pm. Not postmarked tomorrow, if they do not have it in hand by the time the polls close, the vote does not count.

Junkie- I agree Schweikert comes in first, but Ward does not come in second, I predict Susan to be the runner up.

As far as the senate race goes, I think JD really may upset McCain. Or maybe that is just my hope. But I think if the voter turn out is really as low as they are predicting, that bodes well for JD..

Guess we'll know in about 36 hours!

[Andy]

There is no way Paton beats Kelly in CD-8. I guess you don't have your finger on the pulse down here. Kelly is going to win by 5+ points. He was up 19 points in an independent poll taken about a month ago and Paton has hired Sproul which all but seals his lose.

[Bob]

A Kelly win guarantees a Giffords win. Let's hope Republicans get it right this time and nominate someone who fits the district, instead of another Randy Graf.

[J.C. Altmann]

LD11 is a tough race to call. In the Senate, Adam Driggs has the name ID advantage and a positive record. His opponent has tried to flounted White House experience and filled his flyers with photo op shots - one of which got the attention of Army Gen. David Petraeus - and the Army issued a rebuke to Davis for using the photo at all. Rich Davis, the opponent, worked for Tom Ridge - but Ridge never made an endorsement to his former staffer.

The battle runs deeper than conversative against conservative - it is who is more conservative (by which definition) and do the voters care?

In the House race, four girls and one guy, but one girl withdrew after the ballots were well on their way. Statistically, the lone guy, Phoenix attorney Eric West, has a chance.

This has become a very high dollar race with two of the ladies racking in the bucks. Shawnna Bolick, with ties to the Goldwater Institute followers, has logged more than $101K and Kate McGee is not far behind at $87K. Both are way above the norm for a state house race. Bev Kraft, wife of veteran legislator Jim Kraft, is part of the ladies group making the run. Kraft and West are running Clean Elections, so it's name ID and shoe leather versus dollars.

One thing is sure - the LD11 races have gotten testy. The state senate race has seen mailers flying across at each side and the house race has a variety of charges flying on Facebook pages. West has pretty much avoided the exchange of salvos, but Bolick blogged on Facebook that West was out telling lies about her. Within two days of the post, West lost 20 his 4x4 campaign signs to someone slashing out the middles.

Last week, someone went down Bev Kraft's home turf block and collected every Kraft yard sign.

Two of Driggs' supporters have had 4x4's in the front yards taken in the dark of night - so the sign gremlins are now committing what amounts to night time burglary at private homes - both occurring in upper end middle class neighborhoods.

Welcome to LD11. It makes Kandahar, Afghanistan look a bit calmer. Amazing the stuff you see in what is supposed to be a "silk stocking district."

[Andy]

Bob....That is just what McCain, the GOP establishment, and Amnesty types want people to believe. When will others learn only conservatives like Kelly not RINO like Paton can beat Democrats. Why vote for Dem light when you can vote for the Dem. If Kelly is beating Paton by 19 then he is the one to beat Giffords. Any other reasoning is lip service to business as usual in the Republican Party.

[Dr. Lao]

I am in LD 11, and I refuse to vote for Driggs or Davis, the hate mail and unending phone calls have put me off (even had Drigg's dad call me live) As for the House, I'm impressed with Bolick and her ties to Goldwater Institute (I think Clint is a stand up guy), will be voting for Brophy as well. Its really been an ugly race all around.

[Bob]

Andy, Kelly beating Paton does not translate into Kelly beating Giffords. Give me a break. Your believing Paton is a "RINO" is the height of absurdity and flies in the face of reality. It's a relatively moderate district, and a candidate like Kelly who talks about abolishing Social Security (for example) will go down in flames to Giffords. Mark my words. You forget that there is a general election, evidently.

[Olivia]

WHY A TRANSSEXUAL FROM CINCINNATI(myself) has gotten involved with Arizona's District 3 Congressional race??...because my ex-roomate Steve Moak is NOT Congressman material(in my opinion)...and..."evil flourishes when good citizens do nothing" ~ ~my previous posts about Steve Moak being arrested for theft and sexual assault(1974 or 75), ARE true..... Steve Moak, Rob Miller(long time business partner of Moak) and myself, lived together for 4 years in college at Eastern Kentucky University. Moak was arrested for attempted rape and robbery of a young girl living alone in a trailer park(in Richmond, Ky.)when we all lived together. Miller and Steve Moak persuaded me to use my connections in Richmond, Ky. to get Moak out of his arrest trouble...I did, and I have always regretted it...I searched and found the girl, gave her property back to her, and money, and convinced her to drop the charges, and the records removed...I've thought about the young girl over the years...and now this is my way of making amends to her...Moak will not sue me for this post, because he and Miller know it is true.....in recent weeks Miller has sent me emails discussing that horrible night(I will put the emails in the next post, due to length) and trying to persuade me to let this go...I've told Rob, you never met the young girl, you have never spoken to her, you did not see the horrible distress she was experiencing 2 days after her attack as I did when I sat down with her... I do not have a favorite candidate in Arizona's District 3 election, but any one of the other candidates has to be a better choice than Moak...if Arizona voters still decide to elect Moak to represent them...I can say I've done all I can to warn them... and my conscience will be clear.
***Moak was also arrested for disorderly conduct in Cincinnati...he gave a false Social Security number and told the police his name was Steve Larson or Steve Lawson(he said he learned to do that from his law enforcement classes)... Rob Mill

[Dr. Lao]

Quayle on Fox now saying he didn't do anything for Dirty Scottsdale...

Geez, how many times is he gonna change his story?

[I don't want Thomas to know my name...]

Transsexual roommate? What is this? A tawdry Three's Company?

[JackL]

The Democrats will have a field day with Moak if he somehow wins the primary.

It's going to be tough for Moak to explain how he made over $25 million from his non-profit work, in addition to his tax shenanigans.

[George]

Thomas is technically a conservative only if conservatives include big government enforcers. Sure, Thomas wrote some minor essays for National Review way back in the day. And he does stroke conservative principles now and then. But I'd say his actions in office trump magazine articles. His track record is one of using the power of the government to crush opponents and scapegoats.

[Steve F.]

Paton a RINO?

Only in Jesse Kelly's bizarro world...

[Bob]

Or in Andy Goss's.

[Dr. Lao]

I just got a really nauseating letter from Rich Davis' wife in the mail. On pink stationary it talks about how swell her hubby is, how they met, and how he is just the most fab husband ever! Gag

Seriously....does this stuff work? It was like reading a cheap romance novel.

[Conservative 2 the Bone]

Dr. Lao,
How long have you been this miserable?

[Dr. Lao]

LOL, its the silly season of elections will be glad when its over. BTW, William Gheen of Alipac called me tonite to exhort me to vote for JD. I told him no, I don't deal with groups with ties to David Duke. He used the F word and hung up on me. Classy....

My mood will improve greatly in about 24 hours!

[Conway]

My prediction? That Casey "Cuckoo Bird" Newton pawns his iPad in order to afford the new 2011 Prada(tm) fashion eyewear. The folks at Postino's on Central have shunned him ever since he took up contacts. Gobble gobble!

[sunset trail]

Mandolyn, sorry for any confusion. The returns lag a couple days for verification, ie today (Monday) saw ballots processed on Friday reported. That still leaves Saturday, Monday and Tuesday mail, plus dropoffs at the polls to be processed and counted. It is very likely that Early Voter ballots alone will top the total ballots cast in 2008 in the Republican primary in CD5.

[Richard Grayson]

Like Jeff Flake himself, I have a correction on your commentary about him. "Led" is the past participle and correct here, not "lead."

[Richard Grayson]

@Thane: "Could Jim Deakin win? Sure he could - he is on the ballot isn't he?"

Duh. That's the analysis of a three-year-old. I can't wait to see what you'd do as state treasurer. In Arizona, you just might be stupid enough to get elected.

[Mandolyn]

Sunset: Ahhh okay, I am sorry I corrected you on that. You are correct.. I have just heard so many people thinking that they could have it in as long as it is postmarked by today, similar to taxes..

But I do have a correction to Mr Grayson.. LED is not the correct word. The correct word was used initially.. I lead the horse to the water. I will lead the parade. Spelled the same, different pronunciations and meanings. They are called hertonyms.

Unless I am misunderstanding what you are saying as well.. Which is very possible. :)

[Comment]

Mandolyn you are nutsy. "I lead the horse to water" is correct only if you are talking the present tense. If you meant the past tense and pronounced it like lead the metal you're wrong. And you mean homonym: sounds the same, spelled differently and thus a different word, like way, weigh, and whey. Led and lead are also homonyms. Cheers.

[Matt]

The Republican "hard core" almost voted in Saban, despite Arpaio's dishonesty. Why wouldn't they keep Romley? Maybe because Arpaio is at it again?

[No Lemming]

Your boy Paton got his butt handed to him. You worked hard for his campaign so I hope he paid you. "I'm the only one who can win the general" turned out to be less than an optimal campaign strategy as that was the main campaign theme for him.

Nathan got another big loss to add to his resume which I couldn't be more happy about.

[jack london]

Well it's over, another term of watching Mc do everything in his power to piss Arizona off. Over ride a Barry veto?, not with Mc-old in the senate, he'll be hel bent on showing his Maverick side (vs conservative).
I't just digusting to be represented by somebody who thinks in terms of best media coverage for himself vs. what his constituents want.

John listen up! NO AMNESTY!!! and we mean it, ever hear of a recall?