Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

Preparing for 2012

I'm not going to get cocky; elections come in waves and 2010 is looking like a Republican year, but 2008 and 2006 were Democratic years and we have no idea what 2012 will bring.  I want to make sure I'm ready, so I'm watching this year's Democratic campaigns in order to learn what to do when your party is out of favor and it's looking like my candidates are going to get crushed.  In watching the races so far, it appears that there are two keys to winning when your party is out of favor: simplicity and deception.

Take this sign from Andrei Cherny for example.  I mentioned yesterday that he conveniently left off any mention of the Democratic party and adopted a new logo.  He also made up that ridiculous quote about being the taxpayer bulldog (Actually, he stole it from Dean Martin.)  However, the really deceptive part is that the sign makes it look like he's the incumbent Treasurer.  "Treasurer" is a title--like Congressman Mitchell, Senator Cheuvront or Governor Brewer.  You don't see any signs that say "Governor Terry Goddard." (By the way, you never will.)  Cherny's signs are the perfect hat trick--hide your party affiliation, make up a slogan that has no bearing on reality and lie when you can get away with it. 

I've also mentioned this sign by a group of Democratic operatives who have made up a "Taxpayer's Association" and are urging you to vote "No" in order to "Protect the Constitution".  This message attempts to fool voters by suggesting that the Conservative vote is the no vote.  I could complain about these tactics, but I'd rather learn from them.  So I have devised my own strategy to help candidates in 2012, just in case Republican ideals are out of style two years from now. 

I've designed this sign for Russell Pearce as an example of my "Simple But Deceptive" theme.  It's possible that two years from now, Pearce won't be satisfied to have the 60% of population who support SB 1070 as his base and he will want to have a broader appeal.  I think that this sign will do the trick nicely.

Here's another example of the same technique.  Senate President Bob Burns complains that during his decade as Chairman of the Powerful House and Senate Appropriations Committees, he was never able to slow the growth--much less cut--any state programs because they were all "For the Children."  I'm sure that when Bob pointed out that the state had TWO Iceberg Lettuce Councils he was told that both of them were essential--for the Children.  So, Bob, if you can't beat 'em, you might as well join them.

Another trick is to reinvent yourself, but leave enough of your old persona that people recognize you.  This is a great trick and if done correctly allows you to be a completely different person after only a few years in office.  Here is my technique to have Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu capitalize on his famous commercial while at the same time adopting the themes that will be popular in a Democratic cycle. 

Prop. 302 is an excellent example of an Initiative where the truth should prevail but won't.  Even liberals should concede that First Things First is poor public policy--it funds "over and above" programs while the state has to cut core programs.  FTF has high administrative costs, is slow to fund programs and is funded by a regressive tax.  More importantly, First Things First can't draw down federal dollars, so it is displacing state funds that have a 3 to 1 federal match.  But you can't really put that into a commercial, so I have taken a page out of the Democratic operative's book and decided to simply lie. 

Sometimes a simple slogan won't do it. Sure, Cherny can simply claim to be a "Taxpayer Bulldog," but that's because no one actually knows him.  Next cycle when the Republicans are getting crushed and Ron Gould hires me to save his career, I'll have to reinvent him.  I like this contemplative pose that invites you to wonder what he is thinking.  No he's not just thinking about Revolution...He's thinking about a GREEN Revolution.

Of course some candidates refuse to be reinvented, and at that point you have to go all in.  Former Green Beret Frank Antenori isn't going to let me reinvent him as a tree hugger, so I'm planning to go all in by showing you the REAL Frank Antenori.

Sometimes a candidate's weaknesses are so well known that you can't lie about them, or cover them up with simple slogans.  That's when you need Political Jujitsu--you turn your candidate's weakness into a strength by actually magnifying it.  So while liberal candidates can call themselves "progressive" or actually claim to be Conservatives and guys like Cherny can pretend that they are the incumbent Treasurer and somehow are "Taxpayer Bulldogs" it's going to be tough to make Governor Brewer out to be a smooth talking, erudite policy wonk.  The solution is to turn a bug into a feature.

So there you have it...my strategy for dealing with the 2012 Republican meltdown.   The Democrats have taught me well...you won't see "Republican" on any of our signs.   We will re-invent our logos, create catchy, short and deceptive slogans, pretend to be incumbent Democrats and steal the winning party's themes. 

Of course the candidates who practice the art of deception this year are still going to get crushed, so maybe I'll suggest to Republican candidates that they should just be honest. After all, the themes of limited government, fiscal sanity, personal responsibility and strong defense may resonate next cycle as well. And it's likely that European style socialism, Keynesian Economics, "stimulus" programs, Government Motors and Government Health care will still be unpopular. 

Maybe 2012 won't be such a bad year after all...but if it's a meltdown, we'll be ready.

It's not like there's anything going on in Mexico anyway...

Sources say that the Republic's Mexico reporter Chris Hawley is moving on.  Hawley is one of the Republic's best writers and covers one of the most interesting and difficult beats.  He probably would have been gone in the last wave of budget cuts but USA Today picked up a portion of his salary. 

Here's an example of some of his best writing.

Across Mexico, the continuing ability of traffickers to topple governments like Tancitaro's, intimidate police and keep drug shipments flowing is raising doubts about the Mexican government's 3-year-old, U.S.-backed war on the drug cartels.

Covering His Ass

Looks like Andrei Cherny has designed a new Democratic party logo.  I guess this isn't the year to have the traditional Democratic Donkey symbol on your signs.  In fact, the word "Democrat" doesn't appear at all. (Nice Union label though.)

Actually, this is not only the year in which Democrats hide their party's logo, but also the year in which they actively embrace Republican themes--at least on their signs any way.  So Cherny is "The Taxpayer's Bulldog." Give me a break.

Cherny isn't just a Democrat, he's a leftist.  So what does he think of the Bush tax cuts?  Where does he stand on the Laffer Curve?  What sort of advocacy is he planning to do for taxpayers?  How about repealing the estate tax?  How about indexing the Capital  Gains tax for inflation?  How about eliminating double taxation on corporate earnings?  Hmm, I think those would be hard sells for our "Taxpayer Bulldog."

Maybe he means that, while he doesn't want to actually lower taxes,  he wants to protect the taxpayer's money.   Nope. Cherny  wants to change the rules so that the Treasurer can invest in risky investments like local bio tech companies--turning the Treasurer's office into quasi venture capital fund.  Is that what he means by "Taxpayer's Bulldog"?  Higher taxes and more risk?

Cherny should just be honest and stick to traditional leftist themes, you know like his opposition to the balanced budget amendment.

Maybe Cherny could save some words and make a simple sign that's accurate--he could cross out the rest of the slogan and just leave the word "Bull."

Waiting for the Firestorm.

If you Google the phrase "Sham Green Candidates" you will get over 300 articles--many of them national--detailing the recruitment of "sham" Green Party candidates whose only goal is to siphon off Democratic votes in swing districts.  Here's an example from Newsweek. You will also learn from the articles that Former Republican Representative Steve May who recruited these candidates was eventually engulfed by the firestorm and dropped his candidacy for the State House of Representatives. 

Ok, so I guess that pretending to be something you are not in order to win elections is bad.  I didn't hear much complaint when Democratic operative Slade Mead registered as a Republican, argued that Senator Lori Daniels would "raise your taxes," and went on to defeat her in the Republican Primary--only to become one of Janet Napolitano's most reliable votes.  Republican John Huppenthal crushed Mead in the following election cycle--and Mead dutifully changed his registration back to Democratic and was appointed as Director of the Democratic party's prestigious finance committee called the  Nucleus Club.

But that's ancient history.  I want to talk about today.

If you follow the local blogs,  you will know the full story behind these signs.  The organization behind the signs was founded by prominent Democrats and is part of an effort to adopt Tea Party themes to confuse voters into voting no. 

In addition to being deceptive, the campaign looks to be illegal.  My understanding is that the group put up the signs in advance of forming a campaign committee in violation of ARS 16-902.

The question now is what are the media and law enforcement officials are going to do about it?  This campaign appears to be both deceptive and illegal. 

Is this going to be a Green Party firestorm, or a Slade Mead silence?  Golly, if I were a cynic, I would point out that the media and the Attorney General line up ideologically with the goals of the false "Protect our Constitution" group while they oppose the efforts of the "Sham Green" group--and that any articles and enforcement will reflect those preferences.  But I would only hold those views if I were a cynic. 

The reality is that I'm not a cynic and I realize that the Mainstream Media, and Terry Goddard's Attorneys are professionals who would never let their personal biases interfere with their professional duty to expose and prosecute these shenanigans to the fullest extent possible.  Therefore, I expectantly await the imminent firestorm that will soon engulf...oh, who am I kidding.  They aren't going to do anything about it. 

Arizona Has Three Hits in the Top 40.

Republicans need to win 40 seats to take control of the House and a group called--appropriately enough--"40 Seats" has identified the 40 most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.  It should come as no surprise that three of those seats are in Arizona.  Here's the interactive Map.

Recall that the Republicans have to win 40 seats while the Democrats only have to save a handful.  That's why we have been reading about the "brutal triage" as Democratic strategists concentrate their resources on the seats that they have a chance to win--while abandoning those seats that would demand too many resources and are likely losers any.  The three Arizona seats appear to fall into the later category--the "brutal" side of the triage.  The DCCC has already suspended its Arizona ad buys--giving the lame excuse that the 3 incumbent Dems--Kirkpatrick, Mitchell and Giffords--are in such great shape that they don't need national help. 

The Making of an Upset...

Do you ever wonder why there are political upsets?  Sure there a plenty of times when the underdog wins, but how do you explain the times when the underdog wins and no one seem to anticipate it?  When you look back on an underdog's surprise victory, you will usually find a factor that doesn't show up in the polls and is missed by the chattering class.  Maybe you will find that the winner was unusually dynamic, good at the door and spent month after month talking to thousands of voters.

Traditional sources don't usually track a story like that, so the pundits usually miss it.  But occasionally, someone makes such an extraordinary effort that it gets national attention.  Check out this article about District 17 Senate Candidate Wendy Rogers--in of all places, AARP Magazine.

...Wendy Rogers does her bicycle campaigning solo, while her husband, retired Air Force major Hal Kunnen, keeps things running at the home-inspection and termite-eradication company the couple started in 1995. (Their 23-year-old son just completed a tour of duty in the Marines and has moved back to Tempe to get his Ph.D. in electrical engineering; their daughter is a junior at the Honors Barrett College at Arizona State University and is living in a house her parents helped her buy using the first-time homebuyer's tax credit.) "I miss my partner," says Kunnen. "She's the outgoing type and has a skill set that she's able to use in our business. But I believe we need people like her to do what needs to be done at the state level."

When the voter in the Tempe tract house finally opened his door, Rogers stepped back as she appraised her potential constituent. A registered Independent, he was a burly man wearing gym shorts and a T-shirt, with multiple facial piercings and tattoos on every limb. Rogers quickly listed the issues she's most interested in: tax problems facing small business owners, Arizona's education budget, and increasing the effectiveness of the state's mental health services. The voter's eyes grew wide. He told Rogers that he worked at a group home for mentally ill adolescents and the state had slashed its funding. All the employees voluntarily took a 15 percent pay cut to keep the home open.

As he spoke, Rogers's eyes grew moist. "That's an issue that means a lot to me," she said. "I got my master's in social work, focusing on the mentally ill, and I started out in the Air Force as a social worker. I think Arizona can do a lot better with the resources it has."

The voter's eyes also welled up, and Rogers asked for his cell phone number and e-mail address. "If I get elected, I want you to be on my advisory committee for mental health," she said. "We need people with your real-world experience advising on policy." She reached out to shake his hand. "You're a great American."

As she headed to the next doorstep, the voter called after her, "Good luck!"

Rogers turned back, grinning broadly at her newfound ally. "I'm gonna win!" she said.

Just one Nit to Pick...

The Republic's Doug MacEachern has a good summary of the upcoming propositions together with his predictions of the winners and losers.  I do, however, want to point out one sentence that's not clear. 

Proposition 107: This is the Ward Connerly-backed proposal to ban affirmative-action programs, aka racial preferences. It is the same measure that failed in Arizona two years ago.

Saying that the proposition "failed" implies that it was rejected by the voters.  The 2008 version of Prop. 107 was disqualified from the ballot--together with the TIME Transportation Initiative and the Trust Fund initiative--due to a high signature failure rate. 

I don't think that Doug is trying to foist a "people have spoken" argument on us.  I think he just made a small error. 

The Star however is blatant in its attempt to claim that "the people" have spoken.

Arizonans have already spoken on this proposition.

In 2008 supporters failed to get enough signatures to put the measure on the ballot. This time around, the Legislature referred it to the ballot.

That's simply absurd. 

My Little Sister is all Growed Up

I'm pretty happy with the direction my career has gone--probably a lot more successful than I have a right to be--but if you want to meet a Patterson who is really successful, I should introduce you to my younger sister....(I hope she's not still ticked off about my pushing her out of the wagon on the way to Dairy Queen--mom noticed pretty quickly, so it's not like she was in the street for too long or anything.)

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., Sep 27, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- RSC Equipment Rental, Inc.

today announced that Patricia Chiodo has been appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective October 1, 2010. Ms. Chiodo has been serving as interim Chief Financial Officer since April of this year.

"After an extensive national search, we have validated and concluded that Patricia is the right candidate to take on the CFO role on a permanent basis.

She has contributed significantly to the performance of RSC during past years and she is a strong and well-respected leader, with solid experience in the rental industry. Her appointment will assure both continuity and steady progress in our efforts to grow our business, further strengthen our balance sheet and create long-term shareholder value," said Erik Olsson, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Prior to her appointment as interim Chief Financial Officer earlier this year, Ms. Chiodo served as Vice President, Controller of the Company. Ms. Chiodo joined RSC in 2002 as Assistant Controller. Prior to RSC, Ms. Chiodo was a partner and Chief Financial Officer for Equipment Remark International, an equipment remarketing company, and Chief Financial Officer for Road Machinery Co., a heavy equipment distributor. In addition, Ms. Chiodo was a Senior Accountant for Price Waterhouse. Ms. Chiodo graduated with a BS degree in Business Administration with a major in Accounting from the University of Arizona.

Cap Times to AZ Chamber: Butt Out.

Pop Quiz:  You are a reporter and you are assigned to write a story about the Arizona Chamber of Commerce expressing concern over the long-term viability of the state government pension program.  You need to write a non-biased lede.  How's this?

Despite a fairly positive report on the stability of the Arizona State Retirement System (ASRS) earlier this year, a major business group with no direct involvement in the fund is expressing serious concern.

The Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, none of whose member firms has employees enrolled in a public pension plan, is calling for a major overhaul of ASRS to radically change how benefits are calculated for future retirees.

That's not an article, it's a rebuttal in the guise of an article.  In fact, the first word "Despite" shows that the author is trying simultaneously cover the story and discredit the protagonist.  The rest of the opening paragraphs consist of ad hominem attacks and scare tactics--there's no mention of the ASRS retirement system itself, but we learn a lot about the Chamber.  We learn that it has "no direct involvement" (mind your own business), "none of its members are in ASRS"  (ditto), and we learn that the Chamber is calling for a "major overhaul" that will "radically change" the system.  And the Chamber-despite having no stake in ASRS is pushing these radical changes despite a "fairly positive" report on the stability of the system. 

The rest of the article continues the attempt to simultaneously cover and discredit the Chamber's concerns.   The ASRS public relations team itself wouldn't have been bold enough to even send out a press release that's this biased.

Journalism at its finest.

The Buck Never Stops...updated.

Those of you who were in Arizona in the 1980s will remember Ed Buck as the guy who led the Mecham Recall movement.  Well, he got another 15 minutes of fame yesterday when he heckled Meg Whitman at a West Hollywood Campaign event and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie jumped off the stage to tell him to be more polite. 

More info on Buck here.  Here's how he described himself when he ran for the West Hollywood City Council.

An early AIDS activist, Ed Buck organized the first AIDS education program in Arizona. As a successful businessman, Ed pioneered the use of electronic information services. Since retiring to West Hollywood in 1991, Ed has been a volunteer for animal rescue. He has fostered over 50 dogs in the last four years, finding good homes for them all. Concurrently, he has been a vocal supporter of ethics and campaign finance reform.

UPDATE:  One of the commenters to this post reminded me that Ed Buck was described at the time as a "Republican Businessman."  I had forgotten that part.  Here's how Time magazine described him in 1987.

...Ed Buck, a gay Phoenix businessman and conservative Republican who launched the recall movement last July...

Sure, "Conservative Republican".  Back before the blogs held them accountable.  Newspapers simply made stuff up with impunity.  They still make stuff up, but now they usually get busted.