Flake to Announce Today

Jeff Flake is announcing his Senate bid today.  Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal  certainly had great things to say.

The decision by Sen. Jon Kyl (R., Ariz.) not to seek re-election in 2012 has caused a flurry of interest in a possible run by Rep. Jeff Flake for the seat. Mr. Flake, whose district covers suburban Phoenix, has a reputation as a super-hawk on spending and led the fight against earmarks in the House. He has a near-perfect record on fiscal issues with the National Taxpayers Union.

Indeed, Flake's fiscal record is perfect.  He was almost single handedly responsible for turning the world against earmarks.  In fact, the first time I heard the term "earmark" was in a 2004 article about Jeff's efforts.

Flake will certainly be the initial front runner, but there are a few things that may trip him up.  The first is that he opposes SB 1070.  He also sponsored a carbon tax bill that doesn't look good on a Republican resume, and he reneged on his term limit pledge.

Flake also has movie star good looks,  but I don't know how that will play out.  I think if this picture were a candid shot taken by a journalist, it would add to his rock star status.  But the fact that he was alone...setting the camera on rock, doing a quick 50 push ups to get that pump, making sure the self timer worked, clicking the shutter and then running around to grab the hatchet and coconut, waiting for the click, and then running back to see how it looked...well, let's just say I have trouble picturing Barry Goldwater in the same situation.  I think the most impressive part was timing the picture so he had some beard, but his chest was still clean shaven.  I'm sure his itinerary said "Morning of Day Three:  Coconut Shot."

Assuming that the movie star good looks and the teen-aged narcissism cancel each other out, Jeff's biggest issue will probably be money.  Sure, the club for growth is all in, and that's a big factor.  But what other sources will he have?   Flake doesn't play the pork game, so it's not like the big defense contractors will be hosting fundraisers.  More importantly, from the reports I get, Jeff hasn't spent his years in DC building the financial network that it takes to raise serious money.  The serious candidate has lunch with 3 or 4 potential contributors a week for a decade and then those thousand people become his financial base.  Without that ground work and no natural financial constituency, I'm not sure how much money Jeff will be able to raise.  Of course, Primary Elections are much cheaper than general elections, so his Club for Growth connections may get the job done.

I don't know if Flake is going to win or not, but he is one of the few people who have actually gone to Washington and not become part of Washington.  For that reason alone, he deserves his place as the front runner.

Comments

[Andy]

Oh please. AZ Republicans should love this guy. He should get a lot of grass roots support.

[Greybeard]

You point out that Jeff is out of the mainstream in many ways, but you left out the LDS issue. I hate to admit it, but bigotry plays a role in modern politics, especially in situations like this. Everyone has to hold their nose when voting for a candidate, the trick for each candidate is to figure out how to get enough voters to do that for them. And the trick for the party is to make sure the primary winner can appeal to independents.

[Gordie Howe]

You are totally wrong - That camera was NOT placed on a rock. The photo angle is clearly a few feet off the ground, meaning he used a full-sized tripod for this shot (something I wouldn't want to be without on a deserted island, well, that and the satellite phone, of course...)

[mahtso]

I can't speak for any Republicans, but go to the seeing red blog for the anti-Flake view.

I've written this before: I think too many Republicans would rather have no loaf than one that meets 80 or 90% of their wants. In Rep. Flake's case the rub appears to be that he is too soft on illegal immigration.

[Andy]

That is probably why he talked about secure the border and then immigration reform.

[Brian]

AMNESTY = DEATH OF AMERICA.

CARBON TAXES = DEATH OF AMERICA ECONOMICLY.

Flake is an amnesty lover and an out of the closet global warming lover. Just one of those issues is enough not to support this RINO because he will help destroy our country. You can say he is with us "80%" of the time but when that other 20% of the issues are fatal to the country he does not deserve your vote. He deserves to be run out of office and out of the party.

[Robyn]

I really could care less about his work on 'pork-barrel spending", your talking about 1% of the budget. I'm much more concerned with his frequent and vocal support of Amnesty with McCain and Ted Kennedy. You grant amnesty to 30 million illegal immigrants, and you will DESTROY the budget of the federal government and every border state.

It's called being penny wise and pound foolish.

[DSWikfors]

One disadvantage Flake has is that he has never run for statewide office before and does not have the contacts, in particular, the conservative TEA party contacts that someone from/on a more recent campaign would have. Should Flake wander down south to the border, he may find some resistance by ranchers and residents in military and border communities due to his voting record on such issues.

He does start off with a sizeable amount of cash on hand ($627,851) but a review of his donations shows that he only raised $14,300 dollars during the 2010 Election Cycle!

For someone who has huge assets on hand like Trent Franks or someone who has a proven ability to raise over $3 Million in a six month period like JD Hayworth, Flake may find himself facing some real competition for the first time should either one of these gentlemen enter the race.

(Disclaimer: I served on JD Hayworth's campaign committee as his Field Director during this most recent 2010 campaign)

[amattclarkson]

I appreciate this post from Espressopundit. It focused of Rep. Flake's strong points, but proves that it isn't just a fluff piece for him. I don't quite agree with your take on Flake's "teenage narcissism" (He's not Ben Quayle), but I can appreciate the interpretation.

What I can't appreciate are the ridiculous claims from Robyn that his work with earmarks is only 1% of the overall budget. That is intentionally downplaying a serious effort to decrease government spending, an effort that no one in Congress has had the guts to attempt. His opponents cry about his immigration stances hurting the economy worse than earmarks. This cry shows more than just ignorance, it shows a blindness to the most important issue of government spending the U.S. into oblivian. I'll challenge the intelligence of anyone who claims that immigration is a more important issue than current government spending.

[johnny]

Brian,

I just have a general question maybe you could explain... How would amnesty be the "death of america"? These people are already here whether they have amnesty or not. They are working and taking american jobs whether they have amnesty or not... So how would it be the "death of america" if they could no longer be paid under the table, be under paid, and forced to pay state and federal taxes and buy car insurance like everyone else? Especially if they aren't going anywhere...

I understand people wanr ro secure the border first that's fine I just don't get how its the "death of america" it seems to be a bit over stated and bit alarmist. Was it the death of america when the greatest president in the modern era ronald reagan signed an amnesty bill in 1986?

[RonJ]

Jeff is an 95% solid guy. A 95% conservative. It's the 5% that concerns me. I've used the following analogy as to why I don't support McCain and it fits Flake as well: You're married to a beautiful woman. She's a great mother, cook, and homemaker. But she likes to have sex with the gardener. That's a deal breaker. Flake's stands on illegal immigration and cap and trade are deal breakers. They trump all the good he does because they are/will ruin
America.

[AzRep]

Flake is further left on "comprehensive immigration reform" than any other House Republican, as evidenced by his being the only House Republican willing to co-sponsor Guterrez' immigration bills. He was one of only fifteen House Republicans to vote for a repeal of "don't ask/don't tell." He is also one of only a handful to fully get on board with cap and trade. He loaded his brother in law up with money and sent him after Russell Pearce, who won by only 36 points. All this and much more (you are spot on about the narcissism) has hugely ticked off the base, which is why Flake had to sue to get far right candidates off his primary ballot in 2006 and 2008 and then took only 64% of the primary vote in 2010, against a guy no one had ever heard of, who spent $18,000.

Flake is no Goldwater, he is Steve Shadegg. In 1962, Steve announced early, lined up the establishment, spent tons of money, got tons of worshipful national press and was destroyed in the primary by a far right insurgency led by an unknown, one term state senator. Flake is Shadegg II.

[Cathi Herrod]

Many social conservatives will have concerns about Rep. Flake's votes in favor of repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell and for the Employment Non Discrimination Act (ENDA). ENDA would have added sexual orientation to the list of protected classes in civil rights statutes.

[Jackie]

The fact that Flake set up a tripod to take pictures of himself shirtless and flexing should be reason enough for him to be disqualified.

Talk about vanity.

[justthefactsplease]

Damn! I think I could vote for this guy. Thanks for pointing out all his good points.

[RonJ]

Jackie: If we eliminated all the vain candidates from office we wouldn't have anyone to vote for ... Uh, wait a minute; I think we're on to something.

[Dr. Lao]

I'll take Flake any day over complete nuts like JD Hayworth and his fringe brigade. Trent Franks? Give me a break, he is a one issue candidate. Flake thinks for himself and has a great record of fiscal conservatism.

I don't want another so-con phony baloney moralist in there. There isn't much that AZ has to offer in Republican candidates (Quayle? Thomas? Arpaio?), we should be thankful that an actual sane person is running.

[Phioenix48]

RonJ & AzRep show just how up for grabs this race will be.

The national press suggesting that Flake is a natural just reflects how having little or no real professional media here (I refer to the ongoing discussion on the woeful state of PRINT media) distorts the true views on the ground.

It's just like the DC Caller leading the other day that Giffords is a 'shoe in.' Great headline and a good story but a long way from being realistic.

I have always admired Flake because as Greg notes he is about as right on fiscal issues as possible.

But he has made some pretty big unforced errors as far as political calculations of late - highlighted by his decision to poke Pearce in the eye by backing his brother-in-law.

And AzRep is absolutely right about his decision to hook up with Gutierrez. This twerp was annointed point man only because he's an hispanic from Chicago. He's bombastic, confrontational, and entirely unserious when it comes to political give and take. The perfect Obama hack.

Outside of Obama's Dept of Justice no one has been more hostile to this state and our interests.

He's a snake and Flake lent him both credibility and cover. That is pretty stupid.

Worse doing so wasn't some freshman mistake. Worse still is that he didn't bring squat to the argument - given the risks taken. A true WTF - not win the future - moment.

These are the kinds of issues that have crept into my evaluations - in JUST THE LAST ELECTION CYCLE.

2012 Nov is a long way off. And this guy, once viewed about as prestine as possible, has a long way to go to win the primary, let alone the seat.

Yeah he has a fair war chest and he wants this badly. But as mentioned he's never been in real fight - and - the ones he's picked thus far have shot his own foot off.

A competent Las Vegas book on this guy would put him in the safe underdoggie house.

[Lewd Ann]

johnny,
If your Flake analogy has your wife having sex with the Mexican gardner, does your JD analogy have your wife having sex with the Jewish lobbyist?

[johnny]

Lewd Ann,

The person who made that post is Ronj... You looked at the way this site posts comments wrong

[RonJ]

I never mentioned the race, ethnicity, or religion of the gardener. It doesn't matter.

[Brian D.]

Brian:

You said, "CARBON TAXES = DEATH OF AMERICA ECONOMICLY."

Slogans raise an issue in few words, but often require a significant, lengthy explanation to counter.That is why slogans are so useful as propaganda.

You are great with the slogans (and the ALL CAPS COMMENTS), but you lack substantive arguments. Did you actually read Flake's carbon tax bill? It was brilliant, actually. At a minimum, simply take a moment and read the article about the subject in Greg's post.

[amattclarkson]

@AZrep:

I very much hope Flake is not another Stephen Shadegg. That means Arizona would end up with another Evan Mecham.

[Nick]

Flake is great on Appropriations.

I will send Senate primary funds
to someone other than Jeff.