Medical marijuana is supposed to be some sort of multi-million dollar new industry. Investors are putting millions of dollars into dispensories and the supply chains that lead to them. I don't know what these guys are smoking (well, actually, I do) but I don't think they understand the risk that they are taking.
"Medical" marijuana violates federal law--and that case has gone all the way to the United States Supreme Court. No matter what you think of the Commerce Clause or the Supremacy Clause, the issue is over. States are not allowed to establish their own medical marijuana programs.
So why do these programs exist? Because the Obama Administration has chosen not to enforce the federal law that makes medical marijuana illegal. We can argue about the dubious legality of the President's decision not to enforce the law, but for the sake of argument, let me concede that "prosecutorial discretion" gives the President a pass on this one.
What happens in two years? Do you think that a Republican administration is going to continue Obama's moratorium on enforcement? Would you bet a million dollars on it? Would you get a license, build a dispensary, create a supply chain and retain a host of lawyers on the off chance that you will be in business for more than a year or so? Even the Payday lenders had ten years.
Sure, Obama could get re-elected. Or a Republican administration could decide to let all those folks trying to "prevent glaoucoma" keep toking up. Or the entire plan could go up in smoke when the grownups move back to Washington. I'm betting on the latter.