What's Going to Happen in District 9?

Multiple sources tell me that Ben Quayle is planning to move to District 6 and run against Schweikert*.

So it’s looking like District 9 is going to be an open seat in a swing district—talk about a bloggers dream.  These things are difficult to predict, but here are my thoughts on the key players.

On the Democratic side, it’s going to be Schapira verses Sinema.  I was sitting next to Kyrsten on the set of Sunday Square Off when she said that she “loved Russell Pearce.”  In Democratic circles, she’s taking a lot of grief for that remark, but give me a break.  Haven’t we been talking about civility for the last year?  Don’t we harkin back to the day when Legislators could disagree on the issues, but remain friends?  Don’t you think that Barry Goldwater would say that he loved Mo Udall? 

I think Sinema wins the primary. 

On the Republican side, we are going to see a replay of the 2010 race but without Quayle.  I think you  will see Steve Moak and Vernon Parker plus Chandler city Councilman Martin Sepulveda.  One interesting twist is that County Supervisor Don Stapley has been conducting a poll in the district. 

Stapley is likely to jump into the race, not because he can win it, but because he has a better chance of winning a Congressional Race than he does getting re-elected.  I’m a bit sympathetic to Stapley--the way that Andrew Thomas abused him was truly pathetic.  However, I believe that there was at least some fire under all that smoke.   And I think that Stapley ended his career as a Supervisor when he endorsed Jerry Lewis. (Plus, it seems like he votes with Mary Rose more than he votes with the Republicans.)

Stapley has already drawn a strong opponent in Steve Chucri.  Chucri is well connected, well financed and well organized.  I don’t see any way that Stapley can keep his seat.   Of course, I don’t see any way that he can win the primary in District 9 either. 

It looks to me like Steve Moak—who has significant residual name recognition and the ability to self fund—will take win that race. 

So it looks to me like Sinema verses Moak in the General.  That’s a great race.  I think it will be a Republican wave year, so I have to call the race for Moak.

(Take these predictions for what they are worth.  Last week I thought that Paton and Newman would face off in Tucson.  I still think that Newman will run, but Paton has announced for the eastern Arizona Seat.)

 Footnote:

Obviously I'm friends with Schweikert, so consider the source, but I have some thoughts on Quayle's move.  I think it's being viewed in Washington as a totally selfish act.  Quayle is by far the best candidate the Repblicans can run in District 9.  He's an incumbent with a strong name and a proven ability to raise money.  But instead of competing in a swing district, he's chosing to challenge another conservative Republican.  If Republicans lose District 9, it will be because Quayle chose to play it safe.

Who will win? Those of you who have lived in Scottsdale for most of your life will remember where you were in 1978 when Bob Crane was killed.  Schweikert was washing dishes at the Windmill Theatre where Crane performed... Quayle was still in diapers and was being shuttled between Washington DC and Indiana.

Schweikert has been running for Congress since high school.  He first ran for the legislature in 1988--when Quayle was eleven--and was first elected in 1990.  He ran for Congress in 1994, ran for Treasurer in 2004, Congress in 2008 and then won 1n 2010.  That's a lot of built in name recognition. 

How about money?  I'd guess that Quayle will ultimately raise more money.  But campaign money--like most everything else--has diminishing marginal utility.  If Schweikert spends $ 2 million in a primary and Quayle spends $3 million, they will both have his a saturation point.

So I say that based on personal connections in the district, name recognition and political experience, the District goes to Schweikert.  I concede that Quayle will probably have a monitary advantage, but will probably run a high overhead campain, so the dollars per voter amount will probably be the same and both will candidates will reach a full saturation point.

One thing is clear.  If Schweikert defeats Quayle in 2012, there's nothing standing between Schweikert and McCain's seat in 2016. (Except possibly McCain)  Frankly, since Schweikert and Quayle were destined to go head to head for the Senate in 2016, it would be better for Schweikert if the contest were soon and confined to Scottsdale instead of 4 years from now and state wide.

Those are my thoughts.  I respect the Quayle family but Schweikert is my friend and my loyalties are clear.  If you disagree with my analysis there's plenty of room in the comment section.

Comments

[Greybeard]

Good analysis except Stapley abused himself, he didn't need Thomas' help.

Speaking of being selfish, except for friends and family, probably no one cares whether the are represented by Quayle or Schweikert. I can't see anyone putting up big bucks to support one over the other in the primary.

[MK]

I sure hope you're right about Quayle. He never did answer the questions about his juvenile writing career at DirtyScottsdale. What's worse is he was never held responsible for the lies he told to cover it up. Ultimately, he cashed in on his family name and connections to get a seat he didn't have the maturity for.

[Brendan]

I'm a tad surprised that Steve May isn't throwing his name out there this year.

[Copco]

Schweikert will destroy Quayle in a Primary, what a dumb move.

I guess Quayle knows he could never compete in a district that doesn't have a lopsided Republican majority.

[Hamra]

Steve Moak is a terrible candidate, and his shady past with making a fortune off selling his drug testing kits to his own charity is not going to play well in a general election.

The Democrats will have a field day with him.

[RBG]

Schweikert went to DC and made himself visible. I have no idea what Quayle has been doing and he's my rep! I've seen Schweikert on Fox, CSPAN, and even Red Eye at 3 AM. If Quayle unseats Schweikert he would have so much inner party contempt it would make McCain blush. He's nothing but a silver spoon kid who sounds like he's memorized someone else's script.

I also don't see Vernon Parker running this time around. He's burned his bridge with Jason Rose, so no fundraising help. He ran a shallow campaign and it would be worse the second time around. I'd still vote for him in the primary because I like the guy and think when he gets away from primary attractive talking points he's no dummy, but he'd need to make friends with people who aren't Jason Rose.

[d-day]

Schweikert (eventually) opposed SOPA. Quayle cosponsored it - dealbreaker.

[RonJ]

Quayle will be making a big mistake going after Schweikert. Schweikert wins handily. 2012 is a Republican year--especially in Arizona (despite Obama supporters thinking Arizona is a "tossup" state?--pulleeze). Incumbent Quayle has the money to counter anything Sinema and the Dems will cook up in CD9.

[Conway]

Let me be the first to predict it: In 2012, the self-described "PR Mastermind" Jason Rose will upend the political establishment by becoming a candidate himself for CD 9. The newly-rebranded, now self-described "Congressional Mastermind" candidate will run on a platform that promises to bring his track record of failure to Washington, DC. In July, unable to gain traction, he will employ a last-minute ad blitz using his cleverly-crafted slogan "Tackiness not Hackiness." However, in what is perhaps the ultimate insult, his hair will endorse Sinema, which will cause Jason to fire himself. Skulking back home, sans the late-80's Michael Landon mane, he will proceed to breed llamas.

[janfan]

Hey RonJ, did you notice that Greg took my advice and acknowledged his friendship with Schweikert -- as he should do.

Greg, I honestly don't see how any one takes Ben Quayle seriously.

As for your "Republican wave" prediction... we'll see.

[Dan]

Greg's analysis of a potential Schweikert/Quayle primary is spot on, with only one thing missing.

He forgot to mention that when Quayle loses, after abandoning a seat he could have held for the Republicans, he's through. Time to send the rent-a-kids back to the prop room.

[CJC]

Andrei Cherni jumps into the Democratic primary.

[Jacki H]

I'm disgusted with how LAZY our Republican office holders are. All of these guys want an easy, gerrymandered district that they can just coast on for a decade.

Where are the fighters of the Republican party that want to actually win in enemy territory?

We're ending up with nasty primary battles that's going to cost us seats because no one wants to actually have to engage in a real general election campaign.

[CD-6 Resident]

Underestimate Ben Quayle & the Quayle Political Machine at your own risk!

[kdk]

You should have waited a little longer before posting, saw Wendy Rogers announcing her run for CD9 too.

[Average Voter]

Rogers seems to have fewer liabilities than Moak or Parker, an amazing ability to get her name and face out there, and solid conservative credentials. Unless Salmon or Adams decides to move over to CD9, Rogers gets the solid nod on the GOP side.

On the Dem side, I brook no disagreement with the above analysis. Too bad there aren't any districts in Arizona filled almost solely with hipsters, artists, and colleges. Sinema would take that district in a huge landslide.

In the general, I see Rogers winning a fairly close race. The district strikes me as a bit more GOP-leaning than it seems, but it seems the data states otherwise.

[AnObservation]

I posted this on SA too, but Quayle has been so far outraised by Schweikert. Check the FEC filings... Schweikert has about 100k more cash on hand and has raised more money overall. Not to mention, and I am sure Greg knows this, Schweikert is a pretty wealthy man himself and I am sure he wouldn't mind dumping some of his money into the race.

[RBG]

Random question, what are Randy Parraz and Andrew Chernei thinking long term?

[The Klute]

Average Voter,

I'm curious how you explain Sinema's repeated electoral victories in her current district, the one I live in.

It's neither hipster, nor art colony, nor college. I look out my window and I see working class families going to 9 to 5 jobs.

Whomever gets the Dem nod (Schapira, Sinema, or Cherney) is going to clean the clock of whichever backbencher tries for it (See: Gullet, Wes).

[RonJ]

janfan: Greg has always mentioned his friendship with Schweikert, but thanks for your input.

The Klute: Sinema has been winning in 1/30th of the state, not 1/9th. And remember--it will be a big Republican year.

Answer to RBG's "random question": illicit drugs

[RBG]

Klute, weren't you inviting people over at Sonoran Alliance to your poetry readings?

[The Klute]

"The Klute: Sinema has been winning in 1/30th of the state, not 1/9th. And remember--it will be a big Republican year."

It will? Let me know when you get your nominee.

[The Klute]

RBG,

Yup, cheekily so, because I know poetry would be like opening the Ark of the Covenant to conservatives (well, except for Robert Frost).

I also hold down a 40 hour a week job, which is what pays the actual bills. Poetry's just a byline to get me the occasional paid vacation.

[Phoenix48]

First, as a Quayle family admirer, two points. Ben is faced with a real quandry, the sort that requires a fork in the road lifetime decision.

Q:Has being a congressman convinced him he should devote the next 10+ years to serving elected office - with all the sacrifices that entails?

If the answer is yes - then - counter to the expressed conventional wisdom - the demographics of this IRC Democrat Party gerrymand - #9 is the 'love potion' district - presenting him with the oppertunity of a lifetime.

First, as some express here, few outside of his ardent supporters see him as having established himself beyond his fathers shadow - fair or not.

Winning a tough race against a favored - and since I believe it will be Sinema - an 'established' (Sinema has the best name rec outside of either Giffords or Napolitano among AZ Dems)opponent is just the kind of accomplishment that obliterates such charges.

Secondly, when you look @ the demographics listed for voting age - district 7 is the slam dunk Dem district - not #9.

If this were 2008 and Obama was running hope and change - then #9 would look destined to launch Sinema - but 3 years into the disaffected voters in Phoenix, Chandler, and Awatukee - Obama's strongest showing outside of Dem registrants?

These demographics are very competitive.

Lastly, Sinema is the perfect candidate for Quayle to run against. She has built a public persona as a proud leftist - an unabashed enthusist of EVERYTHING THAT HAS FAILED in the current administration.

#9 also carries the advantage of bing a dense urban venue - like 7 - puny geographically. The kind of district where money to buy a ground game of door knockers still has an affect.

He could run as an underdog - with millions of $$$ - and take it down.

Kinda like the Giants winning the super bowl @ what since late nov were once 100 to 1 odds. But nearing game time NY is barely a touchdown underdog - which has a lot of Vegas bookies very nervous.

When it comes to public rants and private qualms? I believe Ben has a lot of Dems just as tentitive.

I would love to see him take the shot.

[Westsider]

Whoever runs for the GOP, the ads will be the most entertaining part (and annoying after the second time). I say buy stock in Clear Channel and Fox. Who is Club for Growth going to crown and despise?

[Richard Grayson]

"Don’t we harkin back to the day when. . ."

If you are not making a pun about the movie-theater owner that's over my head, you mean either "hark back" or "harken back."

(The most common misuse/error of this is "hearken back" -- so much so that some people will accept it by now.)

From Grammarist:
An old sense of the verb hark (which mainly means to listen) was used in hunting with hounds, where the phrase hark back denoted the act of returning along the course taken to recover a lost scent.1 This is the origin of the modern sense of hark back, which means to recall, to return, or to retrace one’s steps.

Hearken and harken also mean to listen. In fact, the three words are essentially the same, coming from the same Old English root and having an archaic tone in modern usage. But unlike hark, hearken and harken weren’t used in that hunting sense, so hearken back and harken back don’t work.

Hearken back and harken back appear often, but most writers use the correct term. In current news publications, hark back is about three times as common as harken back and about five times as common as hearken back.

[AllUsBadGuys]

@Dan: Quayle's "rent-a-kids" were his own nieces/nephews. Don't go there; stick to the issues. So, on the issues, Schweikert wins on all.

@Klute & RBG: ...liking the banter, but can I jump in too and say that "poetry readings" don't connote "liberal;" the content does.

[The Klute]

AllUsBadGuys,

"@Klute & RBG: ...liking the banter, but can I jump in too and say that "poetry readings" don't connote "liberal;" the content does."

I would agree with you on that, but generally, both comments here and at Sonoran Alliance (and SeeingRedAZ when they went after local poet/comic book author Russ Kazmierczak), the thought is that poetry is somehow the purview of the liberal and/or slacker (Veritas Vincit's amusing charicatures being my favorite).

On the rare occasion that a conservative does come to a reading/slam, it's been my observation that because they don't immediately get accolades and/or winning scores, they don't come back, and they blame "the liberals" rather than trying to see if there was something in their performance or writing that didn't help them connect with the audience.

It's like reverse entitlement!

[AllUsBadGuys]

Klute,

I don't want to detract in any way from Greg's post by being irrelevant, but a "liberal" who truly appreciates poetry for its panoplies of paradox doesn't sound like the type to scoff off a conservative who actually does poetry write. Sounds like my brethren just haven't had the muster.

Just tell the critics, "Hey, suit yourself, more intelligent ladies for me." I'd be curious to see who'd show up to a Wasteland reading...

[RBG]

Andrei Cherny has now resigned to run for CD 9. Let the battle of the bros in button downs begin!

[RonJ]

Sinema vs. Shapira vs. Cherny--a Republican's dream. Watching these three egomaniacs go at each other will be very entertaining and worth the price of admission. The question will be: Who out "lefty's" who? Watching them attempt to defend Obama's policies will be laughable. Ben Quayle could win in a walk.

[AzRep]

Schweikert is far more impressive than Quayle in a number of respects, but Quayle's family will make it very tough for Schweikert to win. I remember a lot of these same people posting today openly mocking Quayle when he announced and I was inclined to agree with them. His family was able to deliver the resources that put him over the top against a huge and very talented field.

If Shweikert does survive, he will continue to be an impressive Congressman, but the idea of him taking McCain's seat in 2016 is just silly.

[RonJ]

Quayle won (barely) in a crowded primary field. One-on-one with Schweikert, Quayle loses. Ben should go after CD9. He has the money and he would be going against a very liberal Dem in a very Republican year.

Schwiekert would be the favorite in 2016 if McCain doesn't run.

[The Klute]

And Quayle announces today.

I believe we'll be seeing David "Coppersmith" Schweikert out the door in '12.

[Grandpa Patriot]

How long has Quayle lived in Arizona? 4 years?
How long has Schweikert lived in the district? 40 something years. I don't think it is possible to see "Schweikert out the door in '12".... it is Schweikert's house!

[Randy Pullen]

I would have to agree with everything you said. I wish Ben would have stayed in 9!

[The Klute]

Well Grandpa Patriot,

If there's one thing people like Ben Quayle are good at it, it's evicting people from their homes.

Think of it like this:

Schweikert's the kid who applies to a fancy university. Good grades, SAT scores are good, lots of extracirricular activities.

Quayle's the d-bag who sits at the back of the class and throws paperclips at kids like Schwiekert, and when challenged about anything, he talks about how important his dad is. His dad went to the same university Schweikert's been applying to.

Schwiekert, despite all his accomplishments, has to go his safety school. Why? Quayle's a legacy. He gets Schwiekert's slot The system is gamed for him.

All Schweikert's accomplishments, whatever the are (and right now, it's what? Beating Harry Mitchell in a wave year?), are going to be drowned in a sea of Quayle family money.

[Grandpa Patriot]

I've done a little research. I have to say, Schweikert is pretty accomplished. Became a real estate agent in his teens, was elected to the AZ State House at 28, again the next term. He served as a committee chair as a freshman and then was Majority Whip leader his 2nd term, the youngest to date. He was appointed Chairman of the State Board of Tax Equalization and was elected Maricopa County Treasurer. He is educated in finance, MBA, and has traveled the world. Self made man. He is one of the top sought after Freshman Congressman for news and television interviews. Don't mean to sound like a commercial for the man, he just reminds me a lot of myself and I want him to continue representing me at the national level. This type of politician is hard to find. I'm also tired of folks posting their ad hominem attacks when they lack any comment of substance. Put Quayle and Schweikert next to each other on paper and it's an easy choice. Put them in a room together to debate and the choice is easier yet.