Now that Gabby has said that she will resign Tuesday, we need to dust off the rules for Special Elections. I don't remember the exact dates, but these things go fast--like 90 days.
But that's not the focus of this post...the question is who wins and who loses. Here are some random thoughts. First, the resign to run law doesn't come into play. Everyone interested in the office will be in the last year of his or her term.
Sitting Legislators can't raise money during session, but I'm not sure it that applies to federal races...did Tim Bee raise money during session while he was running for Congress? What is Schapira doing now? Raising money for a federal office while serving in a position where you can't raise state money would look bad, but I'm not sure it it's illegal.
However, I would argue that any serious congressional candidate who is currently in the Legislature would have to resign. He or she can't work full time in Phoenix and expect to win a truncated race in Tucson.
The big winner on the Democratic side is Corporation Commissioner Paul Newman. He lives in the district, has great name recognition and isn't restricted from raising money. Moreover, he can run for Congress and if he loses, he can still run for re-election on at the ACC.
My guess is that Newman will announce immediately and that the other Dems won't want to resign from the legislature and will give him a free ride.
The big winner on the Republican side is Jonathan Paton. Paton raised nearly a million dollars in his last run and has plenty of residual name ID. He lost to Kelly, because Kelly's ground game was better. But it's going to be hard for Kelly to recreate that network on short notice.
So my initial reaction that the race will be Paton v. Newman.
And dont count out Dave Sitton, hear he has made a good impression with those he talked to.
Posted by: Dean Ouellette | January 22, 2012 at 04:29 PM
Wow. Not one single word of kindness, support, thanks, sympathy, or compassion directed towards Gabrielle Giffords.
Not one single word.
I always knew the term "compassionate conservatism" was a crock of crap.
No heart, no soul. Sad. Truly, truly sad.
Posted by: Robert Woodman | January 22, 2012 at 06:34 PM
Woodman: get a clue. There has been nothing by good wishes for Gabby Giffords (and rightfully so) from everybody for the past year. We all have heart and soul. What is truly sad is you have no brain.
Posted by: RonJ | January 22, 2012 at 06:48 PM
Paton may have raised a lot of money, but he lost to a rookie with no money, and he lost big. Word is Antenori will run, he can raise money too and he's no rookie. Paton should think long and hard about it.
Newman? Really? A pot smoker that loves to raise everybody's utility bill? Not a chance.
Posted by: No dope on a rope | January 22, 2012 at 09:53 PM
The Democrats 'gaming' the system once again, disenfranchising the voters, and anyone using Gabby for political gain ... shame on you...shame on the Democrat strategist handlers..the cut off for 'special election' would have been about May , 3 months difference would have made for a FAIR election, what the People deserve.Shame on the Democrats.
Posted by: Judy Patriot | January 22, 2012 at 10:54 PM
Frank Antenori, all the way. Hate to lose him from AZ state, but he will be an awesome representative (at the federal level). Frank was already close to running, he hinted at it many times (has the exploratory already going) and even before this was announced, he was set to announce. He is definitely in (in my opinion).
Posted by: Charlie W | January 23, 2012 at 01:29 AM
It is remarkable that you did not say a token "hope she recovers fully" or "While it is a shame it came to this..."
Simply stunning
Posted by: truther | January 23, 2012 at 08:37 AM
Yes, tut, tut, you did not offer a standard, generic, token, insincere, "hope she recovers fully." Ha.
Once she was lucid enough to "author" a book, she should of resigned for the good of her state and district.
I wonder if the potential redistricting will come into play for those making this decision? As a resident of CD8, I truly want someone who works and lives with us and understands our problems and needs, not someone just looking for another rung up the ladder.
Posted by: Matt | January 23, 2012 at 10:11 AM
truther, Woodman and the rest of you linguini-spined lefties: Enough with the "why aren't you more sympathetic to Gabby's condition?" We are and have been for over a year. What's truly sad (other than Woodman having no brain) is the way the Democrats have used Giffords for political gain since the tragedy: claiming conservative radio talk show hosts fomented the hate, dragging on what was fairly obvious to anyone with a lick of common sense that Gabby was in no condition to serve or run (even a race for the Senate was "her's for the taking"), and now, when we are discussing hardball politics, not enough sympathy is being expressed for her?
Please. It's the Dems and the left who have shown the least compassion by being so political about the tragedy, not the R's and the right.
Posted by: RonJ | January 23, 2012 at 12:15 PM
Matt, you wrote, " I truly want someone who works and lives with us and understands our problems and needs, not someone just looking for another rung up the ladder."
Are you going to get this person to sign a pledge not to seek a higher office?
Posted by: westsider | January 23, 2012 at 02:37 PM
No dope on a rope - this district IS WHY WE HAVE MEDICAL MJ!
Undoubtably which ever Dem gets Gabby's endorcement is holding the seat until (if) she decides to return.
Posted by: Phoenix48 | January 23, 2012 at 03:40 PM
Sign a pledge not to seek higher office? Nah, I know better than to ask for promises they won't keep. I just don't care for it when it is obvious a district is only a stepping stone to higher office and ambitions. I deal with it by generally not voting for incumbents unless there truly a compelling reason they should be reelected.
Posted by: Matt | January 23, 2012 at 04:21 PM
Paul Newman is trying to get elected to an office where it's no big deal to smoke a blunt during work.
Maybe DC is just that place.
Posted by: Copco | January 23, 2012 at 06:26 PM
Greg, you know the ACC is the Leisure World for electeds. Perhaps for Newman it's the Hotel California.
Imagine you're a Congressman or DC insider who's worked with Giffords. You're suddenly confronted by her replacement, and it's...Newman?
Posted by: Greybeard | January 23, 2012 at 10:30 PM
All the potheads in District 8 will probably vote for Newman (Caveat Alert: unless Gabby endorses someone else), but it still won't be enough to get him elected. I think it's Paton's or Antenori's to win. All bets are off if the astronaut runs.
Posted by: RonJ | January 24, 2012 at 08:51 AM
Potheads vote? And Mark Kelly has said he is not running (this time).
Who runs on the Dem side will be interesting, but I agree if Gabby endorses someone they will most likely be the Dem nominee.
Posted by: Charlie W | January 24, 2012 at 11:05 AM
@Greybeard ACC is a leisure world? I believe it's in session all 12 months of the year. And I recall reading newspaper articles in December saying that their Hearings were going til 12 midnight. @Charlie Mark Kelly lives in Houston
Posted by: George W. Pearce | January 24, 2012 at 11:02 PM
Paton is running in the new CD1, not in CD8.
Jesse Kelly, Antenori & Sitton will split the vote in a CD8 race. I'd bet on Sitton to win the special.
Posted by: TR | January 25, 2012 at 04:18 PM
"All bets are off if the astronaut runs."
Never happen. He hates Tucson.
Posted by: Steve F. | January 25, 2012 at 11:06 PM
For the rest of us who do not live in Baja Arizona (aka Tucson), who is Sitton and how is he/she going to beat Antenori? Thx
Posted by: RonJ | January 26, 2012 at 06:58 PM
Dave Sitton is a long time UA broadcaster, so has quite a bit of name recognition. He is (or was) coaching rugby at UA. I have a feeling he will get the support of the $ GOP establishment (Jim Click).
http://davesitton.com/meet/Default.aspx
By all accounts, he seems like a great guy. But he is no Frank Antenori, and that is definitely where my initial support will be.
Posted by: Charlie W | January 27, 2012 at 01:07 PM