Lessons from Babeu

Lesson 1:  Henry A. Kissinger said "If it's going to come out eventually, better have it come out immediately."

Yes, you can run for office if you have an unusual past or lifestyle--but not if it's a secret.   You have to "pre-spin" your own story.  The best example of pre-spin is Pat Buchanan's 1992 Biography "Right from the Beginning" in which he explains that he would be a great President because of his youth spent as a binge drinker who wrecked cars and got into fights with police officers. 

It might be ok to be a gay Republican Sheriff running for Congress--although you risk inevitable Village People comparisons--but you had better not surprise folks with it.  Sure, in the old days you could run from the closet, but not in the era of blogs, Facebook and Twitter.  We all knew that Babeu was gay, just like we all knew that Jim Kolbe was gay.  But Kolbe managed to hide it for the first 12 years that he was in Cogress while Babeu managed to keep it quiet for like a week after he announced. (Kolbe actually faced more serious and more credible allegations than Babeu in the early 1990s, but without blogs and with Kolbe's connection to the Republic, he was able to keep things from exploding.)

Lesson 2: Conflicting Bases

When I was a kid, the big fad was "Do It" shirts--you may remember "Teachers Do It With Class" etc.  It seems like there was one for every profession and I remember going to Tucson Mall and seeing an untouched stack of shirts that said "Preachers Do It with Amazing Grace."  Naturally, they had not sold one of those shirts. Why?  Well, you can only wear it if you are a preacher--and if you are a preacher, you can't wear it.  The shirt had mutually exclusive target markets.  In order to buy it, you had to be two things and those to things conflicted.

Politics has the same marketing requirement as T shirts.  When you are assessing your political chances, you have to see how big your base can get.  So you can be a gay Democrat, but you can't really be a gay pro-life democrat.  You can even be a gay Republican if you market yourself as pro-choice, moderate, sophisticated and urbane.  Then you have to pick a swing district in a university town--use Jim Kolbe as a case study.

You can be a tough, law and order, secure the border, build the dang fence, never without your Glock,  Republican candidate running for Congress in rural Arizona, but that base is going to be put off by the gay thing--and that's not just because he's gay; it looks like he has a reckless, secret life.    Babeu may still have a supporter or two, but his base is gone.

Lesson 3:  When it's over...it's over.

It's over for Babeu and he needs to drop out. 

Not only does he have no base, but he's flanked by Ron Gould who appeals to Babeu's former base.  Gould is also a tough, no nonsense, rural, secure-the-border type--running against Gossar...a Flagstaff dentist who dutifully votes with House Leadership.

Gould's weakness is that he can't raise money--his endless series of No votes has won him few friends and he's running against an incumbent.  Ironically, however, Gosar is also weak at fund raising and is decidedly unorganized--and after Redistricting, Gosar has quite a few new constituents who will be eyeing him for the first time.  Most of those new voters will go for Gould.

If Babeu stays in the race, he may serve as spoiler for Gould--or saviour for Gosar depending on your perspective--but he won't get into double digits and he will spend the next 6 months being hounded and further humiliated by the media.

It's time for him to go.  

Comments

[Mike Triggs]

A couple of years ago I would have said it would be over....but this time I'm not so sure. Time will tell how he weathers this storm.

Sure the gay "haters" will go elsewhere, but I'm not so sure there are as many of them as there was a few years back.

It's hard to hate gay people when you finally realize they are your brother, neighbor, favorite aunt, school teacher, or sheriff.

[RonJ]

I'm guessing Babeu's "gayness" will be less of an issue than: 1) his very poor judgment to send sexy pictures over the internet, and 2) the blackmail charges from Jose. Babeu has a national reputation, he's running for Congress and he internets suggestive pix of himself? Not very smart. If his sex drive (it doesn't matter if it's for Jose or Maria) trumps his good judgment now, is that going to change when he's in Congress? Not likely. He might even be more empowered. This is all about judgment. Babeu can't be trusted. Too bad; he probably would have done well. But that's why we have campaigns--it's a weeding out process.

[RBG]

Go on his facebook page or look up your friends that were crazy for Babeu before, they are still there. If this Jose guy ends up having further evidence of Babeu threatening to deport him or abusing his office for a domestic dispute then Babeu is done, but plenty of stories launched by an ex have gone down in flames under closer scrutiny. The real problem Babeu has is that when other newspapers are picking up the story, they are not using the carefully crafted language that the New Times used and it's making it seem even worse. The Advocate's story linked Babeu's sexual abuse as a child to this case and made it sound like the stories came out at the same time, not years apart, and were linked as some type of explanation.

I think it is a mistake to think that a gay Republican can't be pro-life. If they ever do find a "gay gene" the gay community is going to freak out at the idea that women would abort over it. It also doesn't take long on a super left website like Gawker or living in a "gay friendly area" like the historic district I grew up in to figure out that when property values, personal safety, or neighborhood gentrification is at risk the gay community is pretty darn law and order. Ask some of the businesses about copper thieves and you would think they were Sheriff's Posse members.

I for one find it refreshing that Babeu just came out and said it in the press conference along with things like 'hey I'm single and I act like it' and 'I don't have a fake wife'. Should he have put it on the table before? Maybe, but then his supporters would have left him because of it like you expected. Now, they are circling around him because the attack comes from the New Times, and it fits into the idea that the media can't stand any minority republicans or strong candidates. Is it a flawed logic? Sure. But more illogical candidates have won before.

[Bob]

That was a really long way of saying "it's not the crime, it's the cover-up that gets you".

[Chris]

"I think it is a mistake to think that a gay Republican can't be pro-life. If they ever do find a "gay gene" the gay community is going to freak out at the idea that women would abort over it."

The question is not whether the gay community itself is, or will be, pro-life.

The question is whether you can build a base within the Democratic Party if you are gay (which doesn't generally appeal to more moderate Democrats), and pro-life (which doesn't generally appeal to more liberal Democrats).

[RBG]

Chris I was referring to the idea that "You can even be a gay Republican if you market yourself as pro-choice, moderate, sophisticated and urbane."

[RonJ]

One part of the equation that helps Babeu in this campaign--he probably just secured the Republic's endorsement. With very few exceptions the Republic always endorses the gay candidate. They just can't help themselves.

[exurbanDoug]

"We all knew Babeu was gay" confuses me, who is "we" in this context?

The Sheriff had a bright future in the GOP but his behavior outside the spotlight's glare shows that he used poor judgement. I don't care if he is gay but I do care that he exhibited a lack of forethought in his actions. Not smart and career-limiting.

Too bad there is not similar scrutiny given to prospective Dem candidates.

[RonJ]

exurbanDoug: The press doesn't care about the credentials, qualifications, lifestyle, etc., of the Dems. We know more about George Washington than we do about Barack Obama.

[Son of September]

I think a lot of Babeu supporters are going to be disappointed, and embarrassed at their own lack of due diligence. Most will quietly drift away, but what matters is what happens on election day. Gould comes across as an angry white guy with the crewcut and moustache, Gosar as the affable dentist but hapless and mediocre as an incumbent. Until now, Babeu lined up well against those guys, but now the conservative types in both parties are going to pick one of the others.

[ExurbanKevin]

Shorter version of this story: Babeau needs to quit because he can't win against two guys who have no money, one of which is hated by the GOP establishment and one of which IS the GOP establishment.

Or maybe the GOP base has gotten over teh gay and doesn't really care. Maybe a lifetime of honorable service trumps one salacious story in the New Times.

If more stuff like this pops up, then yeah, Babeau's toast. But one jilted ex-lover doth not a ruined candidacy make.

[westsider]

Among single-issue minded GOPers who only care about the border he will continue to have a base. They don't care about his sexual orientation.

[Tom]

His money will dry up and with the exception of McCain - who I think said just enough to pay Babeu back for his support and won't say anything else - there won't be a single republican official in this state of any consequence who will stand with Babeu. His money will dry up not because he's gay but because his pictures paint a picture of a reckless risk taker who donors wont support. Then you have the "yuck" factor. People don't like the weiner type pictures in their face. And Babeu's are worse. He will hang around for a month or so and then he will be gone

[westsider]

Ben Quayle's Dirty Scottsdale Scandal didn't kill his chances -
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2010/08/ben-quayle-denies-writing-for.html

[Thane Eichenauer]

> "We all knew Babeu was gay" confuses me, who is "we" in this context?

People with gaydar. It's gotta be. The rest of us are missing this perception.

[westsider]

Greg writes, "We all knew Babeu was gay."

Hmmm, Greg is a part of the GOP establishment in AZ. Babeu was a hot commodity who apparently had political potential. He was all over the media. He was the second most popular figure on the border issue behind Arpaio. The establishment obviously didn't do a very good job of mentoring him, instead of admitting their failures, they now say, "It's time for him to go." Greg is carrying the water for the GOP establishment and announcing that they are distancing themselves from Babeu. They used him when it was convenient. What they are saying to Babeu is, "Thanks, sucker. Have a good life."

[RonJ]

westsider: Babeu's possible demise is of his own making. If he's being thrown under the bus by the "Republican establishment" and others it's because of his very poor judgment. YOU DON'T POST SEXY PIX OF YOURSELF ON THE INTERNET! PERIOD! It doesn't matter if you're gay or straight, single or married. Not smart; not good judgment, ever! It's dumb if you do it when you're in college; it's even dumber if you do it in your 40's as a national figure running for Congress.

[westsider]

RonJ, Apparently, the pictures are not of recent vintage....

[RonJ]

Haven't seen them; don't care to. He's an adult; shouldn't have done it--period.

[Phoenix48]

"...The establishment obviously didn't do a very good job of mentoring him..."

Typical oppertunistic progressive tripe.

This is a cut and dry self-inflicted savaging. A first time political novice (national run wise) - after years of crafting a public career quite well - learns the hard way that there is no distinction between the public and private when serving in public office.

RonJ is right on. Its the Pictures. The pictures seal his fate. Take away the picts and I could see GOProud and other national figures helping him try and salvage this for a run.

It's a real dissapointment.

But make no mistake. This political taketown is no obituary. This guy has game and mad skills - he just has to rise to the occation and court forgiveness - once he comes to back to earth to realize his humiliation is ours who supported him as well.

5 minutes mea culpa on Greta and he's halfway home.

It is ironic that we have the professional left in this state (and trolls gloating here as well) entirely looking past the manner of salaciousness driving this tawdry event.

Gloria Allurd tactics brought to the public by none other than RANDY LOVELY - USING the FREE TIMES FOR COVER?

Liberal facism without the smiley face. Nasty tribal and vicious. The public - and anyone - gay or straight - take note.

All that Tucson civility talk is in the wind and so so yesterday.

[RonJ]

Indeed, Phoenix48, indeed.

[westsider]

"learns the hard way that there is no distinction between the public and private when serving in public office."

Good mentors would have taught him this.

[Phoenix48]

Like who?

Janet Napolitano or Randy Lovely?

[westsider]

John Mccain? Sheriff Joe? David Schwiekert, Greg Patterson?

[BantheScan]

Gosar did not vote for NDAA 2012. He obviously cares about our rights and Constitution. Gould has said he is against gay marriage. I won't vote for him and I am a Republican. Babeu is a good guy who was dealing with a whacko (Jose). I disagree with him on Romney and McCain but I think he has our best interests in mind.

[BantheScan]

Well, lots of people liked Russell Pearce but he was voted it out. It really only matters what the people in his district think. I believe his district has changed so that might make a difference.

[Jacki Kame]

Babeu needs to go because he's an idiot. His sexuality was an open secret.

Only Democrats get the luxury of staying in the closet. Everyone knew Napolitano was gay, but you never saw a profile of her partner. Babeu from the get-go should have said he was gay, this story would have been a yawner.

I had no problem supporting Babeu even though I knew he was gay, but the pictures show a lifestyle that is both immature and reckless.

[RonJ]

It is the reckless part of Babeu's actions that makes him untrustworthy and will lead to his demise. Regardless of how well he is handling the spin on it now, it was his poor judgment that put him in this spot to begin with. Hopefully, eventually, he can get past this. But I doubt it will be in this campaign cycle.

[A.I.]

In ten years, there won't be a candidate under the age of 40 without some seemingly "scandalous" pictures floating around on some corner of the internet. Babeu has been an excellent Sheriff and will be an excellent Congressman if given the chance.

[RBG]

Who wants to bet that Wolf will ask a question about gay marriage/gay rights/something gay and the camera goes straight to Babeu. If he's there I put $20 on it.

[RonJ]

Ron Gould has to be the happiest guy in Arizona right now.