Tucson's Topsy Turvy Turmoil Takes Toll on Trasoff

Here was my Tucson Election Prediction.

So If I have to predict, I would say it's still likely that the Democrats will prevail. But if you are looking for one upset in your Pol Pool, bet against Trasoff. 

Indeed, with 98% of the vote counted, Trasoff is down by well over 1,000 I don't think she has conceded yet, but that looks to me like it's mathematically over.  She's the first Democratic incumbent to lose a a City Council seat in over 40 years. 

The Tucson Vote looks like a massive protest vote.  Voters rejected the school overrides by substantial margins, prompting a shell shocked Daily Star to proclaim the end of the world.

Voters have failed Tucson's kids. But the failure to pass most school districts' bids for budget overrides in the general election won't only harm kids in classrooms.

 

The failure will ripple throughout the community. School budgets will be slashed and employers looking to set up shop in Tucson will read this as a giant, flashing warning sign to stay away. It's hard to blame them.

So what does last night mean? 

Well, the national results confirm what we have been seeing in the polls for a few months.  Voters are really ticked off and they are moving away from Democratic incumbents. It's becoming clear that Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats in 2010. 

However, now it's clear that Tucson voters--rather than lagging the trend--are actually going to lead it.  They seem to be more surly than voters in the rest of the state. 

Naturally, that brings me to Tucson Congresswoman Gabby Giffords.  She's facing a double whammy--a national trend in which voters are moving back to Republicans in large numbers combined with a local anti-incumbent/anti-establishment sentiment in which voters from reliably liberal Tucson rejected their school over rides and threw out and incumbent city councilwoman. 

At the moment, Giffords faces Jesse Kelly.  Kelly certainly isn't the strongest opponent that Republicans could mount against Giffords.  But he may end up being a Trent Franks--someone viewed as too conservative to get elected, but who is in the right place at the right time.

Gifford's strongest opponent, of course, would be Jonathan Paton, but the timing isn't quite right.  Paton is enjoying an extremely successful Senate career and is likely to be Senate Majority Leader next year.  Paton could be forgiven for thinking that his best shot is to move into Senate Leadership and then wait until 2012 when the districts are reshuffled.  That way he will have a stronger resume and she may have a more Republican District.  Tim Bee went through a similar thought process when he decided to take the Senate Presidency and run against Giffords while she was an incumbent rather than challenge her for an open seat in 2006.  In retrospect, the Senate Presidency was actually a net drag on Bee's Congressional chances. 

So Paton has an awkward choice.  Jump now, leave a successful career in order to capitalize on widespread voter angst, or spend an additional two years in preparation.  My Tim Bee analogy was a good one, but Paton is a military man and CD 8 is a military district, so I'll put it in terms that he and his supporters might prefer--Grant or McClellan.  McClellan was the General's General, perfect in every way except one.  He wouldn't fight.  Grant was opposite, never waiting for the perfect time, fighting at every opportunity.  Grant's on the $50 and McClellan is a Jeopardy question.

If Congress is Paton's goal.  Now is Paton's time. 

Comments

[Stewie]

Well, I'm glad we haven't wasted any time getting out the "too conservative to get elected" mantra. Thanks for the mailer quote to be AGAIN used against a candidate here.

[Matt]

Thank you for calling Gabby Giffords Tucson's Congresswoman. She has done a lousy job representing the rest of CD8 and that will come back to haunt her in 2010. All she needs to do to win though, is to show leadership and stop being a party-line voter. All the Republicans need to do to lose is run a candidate that looks and sounds just like her. A solid conservative candidate of demonstrable ability will win.

[Scott]

Greg you have a great blog but sometimes you miss the real story. I was in the CD8/LD30 portion of Tucson yesterday. Sen Paton was talking with some volunteers and getting signatures for his 2010 Senate campaign. Jesse Kelly had a small army deployed at multiple voting locations talking to voters about Jesse as they were leaving the polls.

BTW - Kelly is a military man as well. He is on the attack and is not waiting for the "perfect" moment, just like a good Marine.

[Andrew]

I don't see anyone stopping Jesse Kelly now. He is wrapping up more and more support everyday from people like radio talk show host Mark Levin, Rep. Marsha Blackburn, Rep. Trent Franks, Sheriff Joe, and is in the NRCC's Young Guns program, and I have heard whispers of Congressional leadership coming out for him very soon. Not to mention the rumor mill has him on Hannity's Fox News show soon.

How does anyone else step in and ruin their standing in the party by creating another Graf/Hoffman race which gave Giffords the seat in the first place? Paton should focus on helping our state get out of its financial crisis first. The state's problems will hurt his chances in a federal election and people are ready for real people not politicans to lead.

[Breschia]

How can you compare the Graf/Huffman (it's Huffman, not Hoffman by the way) with Paton and Kelly? Both Graf and Huffman were well known leaders in the State as Paton is; no one's even heard of Kelly. If you think Paton lacks conservative credentials scroll a few lines up to see his campaign video. Over 1,000 human smugglers are in jail thanks to his bill. Yet he's done nothing?

Of course there's nothing stopping Jesse Kelly now. He has accomplished nothing for the State of Arizona so there's nothing to stop. I respect his service to this country but it won't overcome his weaknesses: lack of education, lack of experience. He would be an embarrassing candidate for the Republican party.