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Your initial point about Tucson being a cheap media market is clarified in your point about the Phoenix market. The airwaves in Phoenix cross into too many districts that are not CD5, rendering much of the broadcast advertising dollars a waste.

This is perhaps the greatest consideration that should (but doesn't) go into modern redistricting decisions. If it did it would revolutionize elections. The districting people should be using the map of Cox service territory and the ability to target advertising to certain zip codes and possibly even neighborhoods to help draw the borders of media markets. Otherwise it's just signs, plus mail which gets pretty expensive in the general.

Harry, please see me Monday morning for your 're-assignment'.

Dear "Comment": anyone who's targeting mail by zip code or "even neighborhood" is living in the last century. In this day and age, if a candidate's not targeting mail to individual voters, that candidate's toast.

Save the young ones and cut the old ones loose? That sounds like Obamacare.

Great frickin' post. Seriously.

"In some of the most conservative districts in the nation, several Democrats appear to be emerging in stronger positions, largely because Republicans nominated candidates who appear to be weaker. Even Republicans conceded that Reps. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, Walt Minnick of Idaho and Larry Kissell of North Carolina were no longer as vulnerable as once assumed."

Gabby has two million dollars in her warchest. I'd personally be surprised if she got any help from the national party, especially since every time Kelly opens his mouth on camera, he gives her another campaign ad.

Kelly could pull it out, but Gabby definitely won the lottery when he got nominated.

OK Patterson - you're right - I retract my comment from the other day . . .

Dear Duh, no kidding I was referring to cable tv advertising by zip or neighborhood, not mail.

It seems to me that it is likely they see Mitchell as a good bet considering he beat the same opponent last time by 10 percentage points. Also, at this point I don't see the future of the district or the candidate being too much of a consideration as they are trying to avoid losing the House for this election cycle.

To DUH--Huh? Where do you get your factoids re Obama and the elderly? I'm glad that you o not support cutting the elderly loose with a non-solution like Medical Savings Accounts.

@Todd,
That was then, this is now. No coat tails for poor old Harry this time. Besides we have a recent opening in one of our re-education camps in lower Siberia.

Joe Stalin,
The discussion is about what the DCCC is going to do. Factoring in Mitchell's money and the fact he handily won last time against the same opponent means the race is not on life support. I don't know who is going to win, but I doubt it will be by more than a 2% margin.

Yeah, Joe Stalin, we get it. Mitchell is a communist, ha ha ha. So funny -- Not. We continue to obliterate serious discussion of issues in this country with name calling. (I know what comes next: "Well, the Democrats started it!" Please, I don't care who started it.)

Greg,

In 2006 this same scenario was happening to Republicans. Hayworth was in free fall, Renzi about to be indicted and Kolbe's seat lost with no hope for recovery.

The national Republicans decided to back Hayworth, in that expensive media market and it was considered a safe Republican seat. He lost.

The same national Republicans turned away from Renzi and he was outspent and forced to fight on his own. He won.

I won't be jumping for joy until November 3rd. Until then this is all conjecture, and some of it makes as much sense as what happened just 4 years ago.

This may sound like great logic on paper but you need to take a step back and look at this.

As you said tucson is cheaper and giffords has about 30% more money than mitchell. And since tucson is so much cheaper she has more like double the money.... Then you couple that with the fact that her candidate has less money is less organized and overall crappier politician. It sounds to me like gabby will cruise to victory in the end... She won't need DCCC help.

Now in reality will she cruise no, but I'm showing you greg how easy it is to cherry pick a few pacts to paint the picture you want. When in reality the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Also the redistricting is so key. If mitchell holds the seat they can't put him and flake in the same district. The DCCC has already announced ad buys in CD-5 which will start in a matter of weeks meaning they have shot the commercials and they are ready to go. I am not sure how you think they are just going to yank the plug on mitchell.

What you should be worried about is the NRCC has not opened the office in cd-5 like you said and they still have not announced ANY ad buys there yet and we are 8 weeks till election day. Maybe david just isn't going to get any help, just like 08...

Your continued sour grapes over Paton losing in CD8 just doesn't stop. Kelly will not only win this seat but will win it by at least 5 points. I told you he would crush Paton and he did and that was even after the so-called Tea Party candidate was blasted by the Tea Party organizer down here.

I hope you better insight into other races. Kelly is tied without only 80% name ID and not a single commerical running yet. Giffords is toast and the Republicans in D.C. know she is eying that Senate seat too and are going to do what it takes to stop her now making her irrelevant for a Senate race in 2012.

Open your eyes and look at how effective Kelly and his grassroots volunteers are. Giffords, the DCCC, and the DNC can't stop his massive volunteer force.

Giffords is toast and so is your feable prediction just like your one in the primary race.

Johnny: you're wrong about redistricting. The redistricters are not only allowed to put multiple incumbents in a district, they're required by law to ignore such issues. I recall something saying in 2011 one legislative district ended up with 9 or more incumbents in it.

And the NRCC doesn't "open the office." It provides money and ads, not people or offices.

Andy: any campaign citing its "grassroots" is a campaign that's dying. This isn't city council -- the districts are just too big for "grassroots" to win in November. It takes a message and the dollars to get that message out to the average distracted November voter. For your candidate's sake, I wouldn't cite "grassroots" or "his massive volunteer force" ever again.

Duh,

Go back to gregs earlier posts he says the nrcc OPENED any office in schweikerts building.... So I was pointing as is the case many times greg is wrong... Also the nrcc still hasn't done an ad buy in cd-5... If I am schweikert I would be starting to worry...

Johnny,

I don't understand your post. Could you clarify it for me?

I see it as a tight race that may very well hinge on $$$.

Jim,

what are you confused by? I made a couple posts...

I am mainly saying there is a good chance Giffords will get DCCC as well as Mitchell. Giffords has a huge cash advantage but she will need help.

Mitchell will also get help. The DCCC already reserved time for him and those ads will air soon. THe talk that Mitchell wont get help based on Gregs logic is just cherry picking a few facts. I was saying you could also argue Giffords doesnt even need DCCC cash since she has so much and its so much cheaper. You could go further and argue its more likely the Mitchell gets help because his district is more expensive hence he needs the money and Giffords has more than enough to saturate the air waves on her own, since she A. has more money than Mitchell B. Her money goes further and C. her candidate is crappier.

Any more clarification needed?

Thanks. I fully grasp your post now.

I only wish that candidates weren't purchased, but rather truly representative of the constituents and truly knowledgeable of government's role and how to keep it in place for generations to come.

Instead, we get what we have.

Duh...I am not the campaign. I am only stating that the prediction is way off and that Kelly will indeed win this seat.

All the money is behind him now and the NRCC, RNC, and other groups are now playing in the district.

I stand by my prediction which stated that Kelly would easily beat Paton (which he did) and he will beat Giffords by 5 points and only needs to spead about 1 million to her 2 million to do it.

She is toast in CD8 because of her votes on Obamacare, TARP, Stimulus, Cap & Trade, and the budgets. She is 5 for 5 on the bad votes and continues to claim to be some blue dog.

Mitchell and Kirkpatrick are done, Kelly is the weakest link.

No doubt this election will be a Republican blow out (even more so in AZ) so that may be enough to pull a weak candidate like Kelly over the finish line. I think money is going to be Kelly's biggest problem, the national Party needs to step up to the plate on this seat.

I wouldn't be surprised one bit though if we lose CD-3 to the Democrats because of Quayle, and I can't say I'd be too disappointed.

I think that it is Giffords who is in the hot seat. Mitchell was not stupid and voted against cap-and-trade while Giffords did the Golden Sombrero and voted for all of the bad legislation coming out of DC.

She can try to be Santa Claus all she wants, but all one has to do is to hang a "friend of Wall Street" sign around Giffords neck and she is done, phony Republicans for Giffords commericials notwithstanding.

Johnny, I sure hope Nancy Pelosi/DCCC spend a lot of money to try to re-elect their staunch comrade Harry Mitchell. He's toast whether he gets their money or not, and money spent there will be money that other CON's (Comrades of Nancy's) won't have.

Besides, the RCCC did just reserve ad buys in CD 5 as well as CD 1. Schweikert leads Harry 46-38--YES, Harry polls at the embarrasingly low 38% level...
http://www.rollcall.com/news/49595-1.html

Gyspy man,

You do realize its NRCC right not RCCC? You might want to at least get the names right... And yes they finally announced that. The interesting thing CD-8 is not on there... That tells me they have given up on CD-8 and kelly. They think he has no shot and know its a waste of money. Looks like kelly is going to have to overcome giffords 2 mil and DCCC help. Or maybe the DCCC will divert that money because its so obvious she doesn't need anymore.

Looks like greg was right about one thing giffords is less vulnerable... But she is so much less vulnerable she isn't on the republicans radar anymore! Good prediction greg not only will the DCCC not spend more money in cd-8 they might even be able to spend more money helping mitchell and kirkpatrick now

Gyspy,

Also the poll you site is one paid for by the nrcc and schweikert shockingly it has him ahead! When the DCCC releases its poll I bet we will see it flipped. And we will know the truth is in the middle... So let's be real. Also this takes some wind out of the sails of that other poll with schweikert at 50%... Even his own internals don't bear that out...

Didn't your party have a racist Senator who was over 100?

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