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What a joke, Greg. The conservative blogosphere may be going gaga for Kelly (QUITE the flip-flop for you after trashing him during the primary as you relentlessly shilled for Paton), but those of us who actually live in CD8 see through all his angry BS. He is backpedaling away from the caustic rhetoric he spewed like a volcano during the primary and has been caught telling lies about his opponent's record. I can see him as the next bloviating talking head on FOX, but he lacks the intellect, gravitas and maturity to be an elected official.

Gabrielle Giffords is one of the most admired leaders in this state because she is NOT an ideologue, but someone who works hard, does her homework, focuses on constituent service and campaigns harder than anyone else. She won big in 2006 and 2008 and she is about to win again, right-wing wet dreams to the contrary. When the two of them debate, it will be akin to watching a prepared and poised teacher deal with a truculent child.

Giffords is toast!

I think I am going to stick with the prediction I made quite a while ago on this blog. Kirkpatrick is the one in real trouble. Mitchell and Giffords will win.

Rex, I think she's already taken (by that astronaut dude). But don't fret, there are other teachers in the sea.

I think she's going to be defeated. She can talk moderate all she wants. Her votes tell a completely different story.

Ann has always been the most vulnerable. But I would like to see new polling cd-8 before I say anything about gabby. She raised 700k last quarter and has been up on the air pounding kelly. So I'd be curious to see what effect that has had. As you could see mitchells ad had a huge effect with all internals showing a tie (either mitchell down 1 or up 1 and 3) so I don't know exactly how that is toast.

And continuing to feed that narrative only hurts schweikert because the morons who listen to you will get complacent.

I don't know if any polling right now can accurately reflect the enthusiasm of the voters. I think Gabby is in trouble. Her latest angle to paint herself as a moderate to pick up votes may backfire - I know some Dems aren't happy with her ad stating that she is against amnesty (liar!). If you abandon your base, they won't go out and vote for you come election day.

Interesting how the Daily Beast article relies on Gabby's background to tout her "rising star" status. On a purely personal level, I like Giffords. However, I will not vote for her because she (a) voted for Pelosi as Speaker, (b) voted for Cap and Tax, (c) voted for Obamacare, (d) voted for the "stimulus," (e) voted for the horrific budget deficit.

I don't care how nice, how smart, how well educated, etc. she might be. She votes the wrong way and she needs to find a different job.

In my career, I've fired plenty of people whom I like. But they did not do the job well and they needed to move on. So it is with Gabby.

Gabby Giffords wasn't an admired leader in Cochise County when she initially refused to hold town hall meetings to discuss Obamacare. When she was finally shamed into it she held it in Douglas, as far from the majority of her voting constituents as she could get.

I'm glad she's not an ideologue, because then she'd have to vote more in lock-step with Pelosi and I don't think that is possible.

Everyone with half a brain (sorry democrats) understands her border hawk image only became about after the rancher was killed and she knew immigration would be a big part of her reelection bid.

Funny how she has nothing to say about her progress on helping the district get the economy going again either.

If they go in tied, the Kelly takes it.

It's an iron law in politics that if an incumbent is under 50%, the challenger usually wins. Compound that with the fact that voter enthusiasm on the Republican side is at an all time high, Democrats are dispirited, and the top of ticket will go Republican by over 20 points, and you have just enough to pull a lackluster candidate like Kelly over the finish line. Oh, and it's also a Republican district.

Mitchell and Kirkpatrick are done, the real question is Giffords. Even Grijalva is feeling uncomfortable.

It's interesting that Giffords is listed as a rising star whose married to an astronaut but a rocket scientist like Ruth McClung is neither rising nor a star?

I would like to join the confident assertions that Michell and Gabby are toast. But Tucson is still Tucson and Schweikert is still Schweikert.

David should be clobbering the do nothing in CD5 but he isn't. Relying on historical trends this cycle is bunk. If Kelly and Schweikert are going to prevail it's going to take the hard work of retail politics - door to door - tele-bombing ect...

The most interesting story to me is still McClung. Grijalva is a clown and he has given her a real shot at a stunning upset with his call for Boycott and his brazen California fundraisers with the worst sort of leftist dopes.

The real question is this: Are the tribal eleders in this neck of the arizona desert satisfied with the only seat of influence Grijalva has held?

Has his pouting about not getting the prized position of Interior alienated the Nations enough to support a conservative rocket scientist?

It's also interesting no body on either side of the asile has gone asking such questions to date. Not that anything like a new story is in danger of breaking out of the Arizona Repugnant.

Would love to see all dems lose in Nov. They have become too wishy washy and have not bragged about party achievements.

It's fascinating to me as a Democrat that most of the talk in this thread (and virtually any other about CD8) is all about how much people dislike or distrust Giffords. That's another reason I am confident she will win. There is very little ardent pro-Kelly sentiment except amongst people who wouldn't vote for Giffords if their lives depended on it. His appeal is almost exclusively negative...and that is not enough to win. He offers nothing to independents and "swing voters" but anger and overheated rhetoric. CD8 is not the place for that sort of campaign.

Rex, I'm an ardent Kelly supporter and you and others that try to diminish him are either scared liberals (you) or still bitter over the primary. "He offers nothing to independents and "swing voters" but anger and overheated rhetoric." You clearly have not met the guy or heard him speak. You are throwing out the classic liberal spin: "all these conservatives are just extreme and angry." This is all I see from liberals. None of you can point to the accomplishments of your candidates.

During the Primary, most of the folks I talked to about Kelly said one thing in common:

"He's so angry!"

If Gabby loses on Nov. 2nd, it'll mean all their "Anti-Paton" efforts were for naught, and the super-smart Giffords with her astronaut husband got bested by a guy that barely graduated high school.

If Kelly loses, then he lost in the most pro-Republican environment in decades. He won't have any excuse, all the blame will be on HIM. That alone will kill whatever political future he has left in AZ, since he burned so many bridges during the campaign.

Wow. Where to begin. She's not charismatic. She did not receive a degree from Harvard. She's not a businesswoman. Higher office? Unless Sam Steiger and John Conlan come out of retirement and start attacking each other's religions again, you aren't going to see a Senator or Governor from Tucson in my lifetime (sorry, Glassman). Giffords has always been the Democrats' Ben Quayle, just without the VP father and while I don't know if Kelly can beat her in my moderate home town, she isn't going anywhere, even if she survives.

And another thing, Rex, she doesn't win because she "focuses on constituent service and campaigns harder than anyone else," she wins because her parents' friends have ponied up $9M in the last four and a half years. That buys a lot of ad space on Tucson television and with those connections, Joe Sweeney could win (a reference you have to be from Tucson to get).

Oh Steve, are you ever going to get over your boy Miller losing the primary? And just like Miller, you have to take a jab at Jesse's education. Bunch of classless fools. Angry, huh? Well I'm angry too - we all should be angry at the direction this country is headed. I went to the tea party this weekend and have never seen so many patriots fired up over one candidate as they are over Jesse Kelly. Most came just to hear him speak and he got a standing ovation walking in and when he finished. Kelly took the high road throughout his primary - he stuck to the issues. Paton did not. Miller certainly did not (my signs, my signs ... Jesse's volunteers are taking down my signs!!!). I have proudly supported Kelly since day one and am so excited to celebrate his well-deserved victory in a few weeks. Gabby is a goner!

"Kelly took the high road throughout his primary - he stuck to the issues. Paton did not. Miller certainly did not (my signs, my signs ... Jesse's volunteers are taking down my signs!!!)."

Kelly took the high road? As soon as Paton got in the race he attacked him continuously, while Paton concentrated his attacks on Giffords herself. That didn't change until the end, but it was too late.

Turns out Jesse had the right strategy all along, as that did win him the primary. Probably won't win him the general, but such is life.

Like I said, regardless of who wins/loses there will be an upside to the situation.

I wish Jesse Kelly would run as tough a campaign against Gabby Giffords as he did against Jon Paton, then maybe he'd be ahead. It's like an idle campaign. Come on Jesse, get in there and fight!

Donate some money then TommyV. He is limited by funds right now and could use everyone's help. Its easy to forget that she has 2 million and can do pretty much whatever she wants (and lie as much as she wants). His staff and volunteers don't seem to ever stop.

I love the signs the campaign is putting up regarding her record - cheap yet very effective. I heard a few people have already been arrested taking them down.

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