Final Predictions Update: Wow, Exactly Right.

I was on KPHO this morning to provide some predictions and analysis for today's key races.  I'll be on Channel 12 tonight as part of the election night team.  We will start on the weather channel 12.2 at 8:00 and then move to Channel 12 proper at 10:00. 

Here are my predictions.

First let's start with the conventional wisdom as a baseline.  I think local political junkies are expecting Republicans to sweep all six statewide offices plus the two Corporation Commission seats.  Most would provide the caveat that the Dems have a good shot at picking up the AG and Treasurer's race, but that Horne and Ducey are still slightly favored.

In the Congressional races most would argue that Schweikert is going to beat Mitchell, Gosar is likely to beat Kirkpatrick, Giffords is likely safe and Grijalva wins comfortably. 

In the State Senate, the conventional wisdom is that Republicans pick up two seats.  In Southern Arizona, Gail Griffin knocks off Alvarez and in Yuma, Shooter defeats Aguirre.  Republican Linda Gray is a toss up in District 10, Rogers is unlikely to prevail in 17 and Rios survives in 23.

In the House, legacy Democrats in swing districts--Meyers, Waters, and Young-Wright--manage to hang on so the Republicans only pick up the seat in District 5 (Jack Brown's old seat near Springerville.)

I think that's a fair assessment of what the political chattering class is thinking.  That would be a huge Republican year but expectations have been set so high that anything less than that will save a lot of face for the state Democratic Party.

I think it's bunk.

I've pointed out before that the pollsters have no idea what the turnout is going to be.  They have to guess at Republican intensity and while they know that it's high, I believe they are unwilling to make the kind of massive adjustments to their models that would reflect the mood of the country.  That's because there's no real scientific basis to adjust the turnout model and the adjustment would yeild a huge Republican sweep, so they are being conservative in their Republican turnout predictions. 

I think the polls have underestimated the Republican turnout edge by 5 to 7 points.  That's my entire theory--but that theory has huge implications. 

Go back up to the conventional wisdom summary and add 5% to the Republican side in every race.  Republicans will still sweep the statewide offices, but most of them will win by 10% while Horne and Ducey win by 5%.  The ACC candidates win by 15%.

Schweikert beats Mitchell by 10 to 12 percent--and even beats him in Tempe proper.  Gosar beats Kirkpatrick by 7%, Kelly defeats Giffords by a handful of votes.  McClung and Grijalva are too close to call. (In my original post I forgot to say that Quayle wins by 5%.)

Republicans indeed pick up Districts 24 and 25, but instead of 23 (Rios)  and 17 (Shapira) being comfortably Democratic, they are actually too close to call and Republican are likely to pick up at least one of them.   Linda Gray wins by 5%.

In the House, Meyer may survive, but Young-Wright and Waters likely won't. We will clearly pick up the seat in 5 and may even pick up a House seat in 25.

Ultimately, I think the Senate will have 21 Republicans and the House will have 38.  Republicans will have six of eight Congressional seats, and every statewide office.  (Under that scenario, Grijalva, Meyer and Rios survive.)

If my scenario turns out to be right, then the Arizona Democrats would have underperformed the national Democrats. 

If he had any class, Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens would resign immediately after the election.  Not only have the Democratic candidates lagged, but Democratic voter registration has actually fallen (despite all "sleeping Hispanic Giant" claims.)  Finally, the state Democratic Party committed the unpardonable sin of disrespecting the President by sending out brochures saying "Repeal Obama's Health Care Bill." 

So those are my predictions.  As a quick reminder, remember that in 2008 the local media was saying that the Democrats were going to win the House.  Pundits were wringing their hands about the demise of the Republican Party.  That's when I predicted that it would be a Republican year and that we would pick up two seats in the House and one in the Senate--which is exactly what happened. 

I may be wrong this time.  If it's a "normal" wave year then you are likely to see results that mirror the first few paragraphs of this post.  If my prediction comes through and the wave is too big for the pollsters to see then my predicted results will be closer to reality.  If the Dems manage to save a few key races--say Giffords or Rotellini, plus maybe Rios and Shapira then they can at least claim that they weren't wiped out. 

But this too shall pass.  Republicans won big in 1994 and then botched it.  We lost big in 2006 and recovered.  Obama was the Messiah in 2008 and now the crowd is yelling "Give us Barabbas."

Eventually the pendulum will swing back.   

 

Comments

[Matt Sh.]

New York State has the "The Rent Is Too Damn High" party. Think I'm gonna get a t-shirt made before I go to the polls....

[Tyler M]

Republicans can't win by a handful of votes, because if it ends up being close the Dems will cheat to win.

[johnny]

Which polls are you saying are wrong exactly? Because gallup has a generic ballot of 55-40. If you think they can outperform that then you really are crazy...

[State Rep. John Kavanagh]

Late national polling shows undecideds breaking 2-1 Republican. If that national trend also applies in Arizona, the R-wave will be bigger than even optimists expect. Surfs up!

[Patric]

What a homer. Can you be objective about anything? Giffords will win going away. How many times will this be that you've predicted Mitchell loses? Gary Richardson, Laura Knaperek, David Schweikert...all have proven roadkill for Tempe's favorite son. Tonight will be close - Mitchell may lose but the 10-12 prediction is ludicrous. Also, Kirkpatrick will be close as well. Rotellini will win solidly.

[Brad]

Oh I can't wait to see the smug look on Liberals faces wiped away.

The pendulum will keep swinging towards Republicans in 2012, Obama's failed economic policies are going nowhere, unemployment will still be around 9%.

[Andy]

I agree with these predictions.

Also, Kelly was predicted to lose to Paton by 5 and won by 9. He will beat Giffords by 5 tonight and destroy her political future since she was planning on running for or against Kyl's seat in 2012.

Good news...Since she is already a resident of Texas she can try to run for office there.

[Nitpickerdem]

No pick on little Benny Quayle's race, eh?

[John Wentling]

Quayle by 5+, after all, it is a Republican district.

[Sean McCaffrey]

Love the predictions, Greg! Another great cycle of commentary and analysis, by the way. Kudos to you and your blog. I hope your personal predictions prove true, but will "settle" for the pundit classes smaller gains if need be. Keep the faith, brother! --Sean

[PT Barnum]

Good thing Jesse Kelly listened to you, dropped out in favor Congressman-elect Paton and entered the state rep race! I hope jesse enjoys being in the legislature as much as Jonathan enjoys Congress!

When you're crowing about the races you manage to get right tomorrow, you'd have a lot more credibility if you admitted the ones where you absolutely dined on crow.

[Randy pullen]

Greg,

You must have a copy of my talking points

[BarnStormer7]

Greg, couldn't disagree more with your prediction in LD11. GOP takes both seats. Also, watch Jon Altmann take the LD 11 Chair running against the "slate." Times are changing in the GOP as it returns to its roots.

[jdleslie1]

Greg is right about the pendulum. It's clearly an R year. I'd be surprised if it's as complete as he predicts, but wouldn't be surprised if it's more than the conventional wisdom he cites, including the Senate. I think a guy like Brad might be surprised however if he thinks the only further backlash in 2012 with still high unemployment will be against the Dems. It'll be hard to (successfully) blame the Dems if they don't control Congress. The pendulum seems to swing faster and harder now than in 1994 (witness the change in the past two years), so if the Republicans don't step up and deliver quickly, the fickle finger of fate may point back against them.

[Rex]

You could not be more wrong about LD26. Wright will be re-elected and Proud may dump Williams. Wright is the only Democrat in a three-way race and will get lost of "single shot" votes. Proud's people are telling their supporters to do the same for her. They do not see themselves as running with Williams.

Cage will beat Melvin in the LD26 Senate race. Melvin is way out of step with the district and a significant number of moderate Republicans have publicly endorsed her and Wright. Two years ago, Melvin barely won. He does down tonight.

You are also underestimating the Democratic turnout statewide, especially with a Navajo tribal election taking place simultaneously with the general election. Hispanic voters have more than one reason to turn out and the supporters of public education will be at the polls en masse.

I would not be surprised to see Democrats win several of the statewide races, especially the AG, Treasurer or State Supe races. You may also be underestimating the number of people appalled with the fact that we have a governor who is both a buffoon and a puppet. The congressional races will be tougher for Democrats because of the effects of national issues, but all of the above may help those folks, too.

Greg, your past track record is mixed at best. Tonight should provide more of the same. As a previous poster has noted, you won't own up to those prognisticating errors, or the ones you will make tonight.

[John Wentling]

Wow Rex, were you ever way, way off, I hope you're not a gambler.

Can I get a do over? Quayle by 10+.

[Rex]

So far, it DOES look like I was wromg about the statewide races...but look at CD8 and LD26 as of 9:36 PM!

[Geoff]

Looks like the libertarians may be the saving grace of Raul and Gabby.

[Phoenix48]

"So far, it DOES look like I was wromg about the statewide races...but "

Coming so close to a near sweep in CD8 & CD7 does take a bit of air out of the parade. But...

The real story is @ the State level.

Stan Barns @ the local Horizon's coverage panel said it best - echoing what Gregs been saying for months here.

The State Senate & House will be at historic Republican majorities. Dems are decimated to the point of irrelevance. Even more so the new majority is further right in their conservatism than anyones memory. (except maybe semi-retired Justice O'Conner)

Both prop's relating to the budget went down in flames.

They have (almost to a person) committed to no new taxes beyond the Govs temp hike.

Which means, if they are true to being who they ran as, they have an obligation to lead by taking a meat cleaver to spending.

The public (again Stan the man deserves credit) 'didn't get that they basically sold the captial buildings for a title loan to make payroll'....clearly having yet to get the message as to how dire the financial situation truly is.

There are no sacred cows anymore, nor any cover by way of SB1070. Just mountains of debt and a rock and hard place. Leaving the very very difficult and inevitably unpopular problem of keeping state government solvent until reveunue returns.

They wanted it and they got it and they got 1 cycle to make it happen...but. Its gonna be bloody and painful and there is no way around it.

[Rex]

It's 11:41 PM...and I'm forced to admit that Greg was almost completely accurate in his picks. Wright could still pull it out in LD26 with a few precincts left to count. Giffords and Grijalva have narrow leads, but there are still votes out there. Based on the precincts in Pima where those votes are, things look pretty assured for Grijalva, but less so for Giffords. Still, they should both win.

With all the harm the GOP has done to this state during 40 years of running the Legislature, my hope was that Arizonans had had enough. It appears that they still trust the people who concocted this mess to screw with their lives some more. It's tragic to have to say this, but I am counting on Brewer to be the voice of reason, like she was with the sales tax increase...

[Steve Calabrese]

Now for the scary part.

On the national level, we still can't fix things.

We can STOP the bleeding. We still don't have the powert to propose new policy.

Republicans must get through the next two years, dealing with an economy that will get steadily worse and not being able to propose anything to fix it. We'll be able to stop new spending excesses, but it will be tough going and hopefully the voters will realize how bad things are and not take it out on the GOP in 2012.

[Paul Walker]

Well done Greg - you nailed it.

Echoing Phoenix48, with total GOP dominance in the Legislature, and complete GOP control in the executive branch --- AND with the voters refusing to be pragmatic on the budget, we are about to see state government completely recreated.

Let's start a thread on what gets changed in Arizona government.

My predictions:
Private prisons,
Private toll roads,
Private rest stops,
Expanded charter school programs,
Elimination of agencies,
Agency mergers.

[Dave K.]

Morning Patric. How's that crow? ...

[James Strock]

Congratulations on a great job in analyzing the elections, Greg! Your blog has been spot-on.

[Duh]

The best news for Arizona: California's Prop 23 failed, leaving in place CA's climate change regulations. Expect CA's few remaingin manufacturing and energy-intensive businesses to head for the exits over the next 5 years.

CA's law, officially "AB32," is better called the "Arizona Economic Recovery Act."

[Surprised]

I love giving you a hard time for your predictions that go off the rails, so it's only fair to give you credit for the times when you nail it. Congrats, your predictions were spectacularly accurate overall.

[johnny]

Well greg as always mixed results. To me everyone knew the GOP would win the statewide offices... But as always you underestimated giffords and grijalva is going to win by 4 points... Not the monumental shift at the federal level that you thought...

[Patric]

The crow tastes terrible...honestly, congrats to you all, enjoy the moment...I do think this election was a protest vote: in part against Democrats, but definitely against the general direction of things and certainly a great deal of that is not about what Democrats have done over the last two years. The generic polls still show both parties are not held in high regard, and Democrats proved you can't win an election on a theme such as "we know you don't like us, but their worse." Again, enjoy it but be careful of that pendulum...it has a way of swinging back hard.

[RonJ]

Yes, the pendulum tends to swing back and forth. But never has it swung so hard, so fast back after going so far in one direction (radical left). The Republicans will be wise to work quickly to bring back America from the brink of destruction, but at the same time understand that this is more of an anti-Obama vote than a pro-Republican vote. Americans want the feds to restrict themselves to the U.S. Constitution--limited government, less spending--you, know just like the Founders intended. Gee, what a concept!
Good job, Greg.

[Brad]

Huge Republican wave no doubt, the Obama era is indeed over.

I am upset that the "idiot caucus" in the Tea Party cost us a few seats.

I'm all for Fiscal Conservatism, I consider myself to be a Goldwater Republican, but some of these candidates they put up were complete jokes.

Giffords would no doubt have been beat tonight by a candidate like Paton. Ditto for Reid in Nevada and Bennett in Colorado.

You have to field quality candidates if you want to play this game.

[John Wentling]

Gee, wait until Rex finds out Russell Pearce will be Senate President . . . .

[Steve F.]

"You have to field quality candidates if you want to play this game."

I'm hoping that the Tea Party will take that truth to heart.

And yeah, Paton would be a congressman now, although Kelly (and Grijalva vs. McClung) are very close. No credit for that to Kelly's campaign, it's just the election environment this year.

All those ads on azstarnet showing Kelly's "Full Retard" face had an impact, apparently.

[Jim Torgeson]

Patric;

Schweikert's margin of victory? Go ahead... say it!

[Dean Kennedy]

Hey Patric 2008 was a protest vote against Comrade Bush, with Comrade Obama as the beneficiary. As expected, Comrade Obama misread his mandate, which is why he today presides over a shattered Demopublican Party. Ain't protest votes great?

[Dean Kennedy]

Brad take it easy, a whole bunch of trash got swept up and thrown into the dumpster. The scraps will get thrown away in 2012.

Funny how ignore Paul, Rubio, Toomey, etc. in your doomsday post mortem.

[ron]

"Eventually the pendulum will swing back."

Yup, already being predicted for 2012.

[Norm Seeley Jr.]

I live in District 17, and other than reading the name of Shapira in one of the publications on the election that were put of by the "Clean Election Committee" and the info from the County Elections Department, I never so much as receive one piece of literature from him. Nothing. So now my wife and I our represented by someone who didn't even have respect enough for the people in his District to campaign. No wonder I dislike politicians, especially those on the left.