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New York State has the "The Rent Is Too Damn High" party. Think I'm gonna get a t-shirt made before I go to the polls....

Republicans can't win by a handful of votes, because if it ends up being close the Dems will cheat to win.

Which polls are you saying are wrong exactly? Because gallup has a generic ballot of 55-40. If you think they can outperform that then you really are crazy...

Late national polling shows undecideds breaking 2-1 Republican. If that national trend also applies in Arizona, the R-wave will be bigger than even optimists expect. Surfs up!

What a homer. Can you be objective about anything? Giffords will win going away. How many times will this be that you've predicted Mitchell loses? Gary Richardson, Laura Knaperek, David Schweikert...all have proven roadkill for Tempe's favorite son. Tonight will be close - Mitchell may lose but the 10-12 prediction is ludicrous. Also, Kirkpatrick will be close as well. Rotellini will win solidly.

Oh I can't wait to see the smug look on Liberals faces wiped away.

The pendulum will keep swinging towards Republicans in 2012, Obama's failed economic policies are going nowhere, unemployment will still be around 9%.

I agree with these predictions.

Also, Kelly was predicted to lose to Paton by 5 and won by 9. He will beat Giffords by 5 tonight and destroy her political future since she was planning on running for or against Kyl's seat in 2012.

Good news...Since she is already a resident of Texas she can try to run for office there.

No pick on little Benny Quayle's race, eh?

Quayle by 5+, after all, it is a Republican district.

Love the predictions, Greg! Another great cycle of commentary and analysis, by the way. Kudos to you and your blog. I hope your personal predictions prove true, but will "settle" for the pundit classes smaller gains if need be. Keep the faith, brother! --Sean

Good thing Jesse Kelly listened to you, dropped out in favor Congressman-elect Paton and entered the state rep race! I hope jesse enjoys being in the legislature as much as Jonathan enjoys Congress!

When you're crowing about the races you manage to get right tomorrow, you'd have a lot more credibility if you admitted the ones where you absolutely dined on crow.


You must have a copy of my talking points

Greg, couldn't disagree more with your prediction in LD11. GOP takes both seats. Also, watch Jon Altmann take the LD 11 Chair running against the "slate." Times are changing in the GOP as it returns to its roots.

Greg is right about the pendulum. It's clearly an R year. I'd be surprised if it's as complete as he predicts, but wouldn't be surprised if it's more than the conventional wisdom he cites, including the Senate. I think a guy like Brad might be surprised however if he thinks the only further backlash in 2012 with still high unemployment will be against the Dems. It'll be hard to (successfully) blame the Dems if they don't control Congress. The pendulum seems to swing faster and harder now than in 1994 (witness the change in the past two years), so if the Republicans don't step up and deliver quickly, the fickle finger of fate may point back against them.

You could not be more wrong about LD26. Wright will be re-elected and Proud may dump Williams. Wright is the only Democrat in a three-way race and will get lost of "single shot" votes. Proud's people are telling their supporters to do the same for her. They do not see themselves as running with Williams.

Cage will beat Melvin in the LD26 Senate race. Melvin is way out of step with the district and a significant number of moderate Republicans have publicly endorsed her and Wright. Two years ago, Melvin barely won. He does down tonight.

You are also underestimating the Democratic turnout statewide, especially with a Navajo tribal election taking place simultaneously with the general election. Hispanic voters have more than one reason to turn out and the supporters of public education will be at the polls en masse.

I would not be surprised to see Democrats win several of the statewide races, especially the AG, Treasurer or State Supe races. You may also be underestimating the number of people appalled with the fact that we have a governor who is both a buffoon and a puppet. The congressional races will be tougher for Democrats because of the effects of national issues, but all of the above may help those folks, too.

Greg, your past track record is mixed at best. Tonight should provide more of the same. As a previous poster has noted, you won't own up to those prognisticating errors, or the ones you will make tonight.

Wow Rex, were you ever way, way off, I hope you're not a gambler.

Can I get a do over? Quayle by 10+.

So far, it DOES look like I was wromg about the statewide races...but look at CD8 and LD26 as of 9:36 PM!

Looks like the libertarians may be the saving grace of Raul and Gabby.

"So far, it DOES look like I was wromg about the statewide races...but "

Coming so close to a near sweep in CD8 & CD7 does take a bit of air out of the parade. But...

The real story is @ the State level.

Stan Barns @ the local Horizon's coverage panel said it best - echoing what Gregs been saying for months here.

The State Senate & House will be at historic Republican majorities. Dems are decimated to the point of irrelevance. Even more so the new majority is further right in their conservatism than anyones memory. (except maybe semi-retired Justice O'Conner)

Both prop's relating to the budget went down in flames.

They have (almost to a person) committed to no new taxes beyond the Govs temp hike.

Which means, if they are true to being who they ran as, they have an obligation to lead by taking a meat cleaver to spending.

The public (again Stan the man deserves credit) 'didn't get that they basically sold the captial buildings for a title loan to make payroll'....clearly having yet to get the message as to how dire the financial situation truly is.

There are no sacred cows anymore, nor any cover by way of SB1070. Just mountains of debt and a rock and hard place. Leaving the very very difficult and inevitably unpopular problem of keeping state government solvent until reveunue returns.

They wanted it and they got it and they got 1 cycle to make it happen...but. Its gonna be bloody and painful and there is no way around it.

It's 11:41 PM...and I'm forced to admit that Greg was almost completely accurate in his picks. Wright could still pull it out in LD26 with a few precincts left to count. Giffords and Grijalva have narrow leads, but there are still votes out there. Based on the precincts in Pima where those votes are, things look pretty assured for Grijalva, but less so for Giffords. Still, they should both win.

With all the harm the GOP has done to this state during 40 years of running the Legislature, my hope was that Arizonans had had enough. It appears that they still trust the people who concocted this mess to screw with their lives some more. It's tragic to have to say this, but I am counting on Brewer to be the voice of reason, like she was with the sales tax increase...

Now for the scary part.

On the national level, we still can't fix things.

We can STOP the bleeding. We still don't have the powert to propose new policy.

Republicans must get through the next two years, dealing with an economy that will get steadily worse and not being able to propose anything to fix it. We'll be able to stop new spending excesses, but it will be tough going and hopefully the voters will realize how bad things are and not take it out on the GOP in 2012.

Well done Greg - you nailed it.

Echoing Phoenix48, with total GOP dominance in the Legislature, and complete GOP control in the executive branch --- AND with the voters refusing to be pragmatic on the budget, we are about to see state government completely recreated.

Let's start a thread on what gets changed in Arizona government.

My predictions:
Private prisons,
Private toll roads,
Private rest stops,
Expanded charter school programs,
Elimination of agencies,
Agency mergers.

Morning Patric. How's that crow? ...

Congratulations on a great job in analyzing the elections, Greg! Your blog has been spot-on.

The best news for Arizona: California's Prop 23 failed, leaving in place CA's climate change regulations. Expect CA's few remaingin manufacturing and energy-intensive businesses to head for the exits over the next 5 years.

CA's law, officially "AB32," is better called the "Arizona Economic Recovery Act."

I love giving you a hard time for your predictions that go off the rails, so it's only fair to give you credit for the times when you nail it. Congrats, your predictions were spectacularly accurate overall.

Well greg as always mixed results. To me everyone knew the GOP would win the statewide offices... But as always you underestimated giffords and grijalva is going to win by 4 points... Not the monumental shift at the federal level that you thought...

The crow tastes terrible...honestly, congrats to you all, enjoy the moment...I do think this election was a protest vote: in part against Democrats, but definitely against the general direction of things and certainly a great deal of that is not about what Democrats have done over the last two years. The generic polls still show both parties are not held in high regard, and Democrats proved you can't win an election on a theme such as "we know you don't like us, but their worse." Again, enjoy it but be careful of that pendulum...it has a way of swinging back hard.

Yes, the pendulum tends to swing back and forth. But never has it swung so hard, so fast back after going so far in one direction (radical left). The Republicans will be wise to work quickly to bring back America from the brink of destruction, but at the same time understand that this is more of an anti-Obama vote than a pro-Republican vote. Americans want the feds to restrict themselves to the U.S. Constitution--limited government, less spending--you, know just like the Founders intended. Gee, what a concept!
Good job, Greg.

Huge Republican wave no doubt, the Obama era is indeed over.

I am upset that the "idiot caucus" in the Tea Party cost us a few seats.

I'm all for Fiscal Conservatism, I consider myself to be a Goldwater Republican, but some of these candidates they put up were complete jokes.

Giffords would no doubt have been beat tonight by a candidate like Paton. Ditto for Reid in Nevada and Bennett in Colorado.

You have to field quality candidates if you want to play this game.

Gee, wait until Rex finds out Russell Pearce will be Senate President . . . .

"You have to field quality candidates if you want to play this game."

I'm hoping that the Tea Party will take that truth to heart.

And yeah, Paton would be a congressman now, although Kelly (and Grijalva vs. McClung) are very close. No credit for that to Kelly's campaign, it's just the election environment this year.

All those ads on azstarnet showing Kelly's "Full Retard" face had an impact, apparently.


Schweikert's margin of victory? Go ahead... say it!

Hey Patric 2008 was a protest vote against Comrade Bush, with Comrade Obama as the beneficiary. As expected, Comrade Obama misread his mandate, which is why he today presides over a shattered Demopublican Party. Ain't protest votes great?

Brad take it easy, a whole bunch of trash got swept up and thrown into the dumpster. The scraps will get thrown away in 2012.

Funny how ignore Paul, Rubio, Toomey, etc. in your doomsday post mortem.

"Eventually the pendulum will swing back."

Yup, already being predicted for 2012.

I live in District 17, and other than reading the name of Shapira in one of the publications on the election that were put of by the "Clean Election Committee" and the info from the County Elections Department, I never so much as receive one piece of literature from him. Nothing. So now my wife and I our represented by someone who didn't even have respect enough for the people in his District to campaign. No wonder I dislike politicians, especially those on the left.

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